India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

Voting ends in 5th phase of UP elections.  Turnout estimated at 57.36%.  In 2012 these district turnout is 57.1%.  Most likely estimated turnout will be increased.  So turnout increased a bit from 2012 levels.

[jaichind]

Just to clear about the different communal coalitions BJP+, INC-SP and BSP has in mind.

In UP we have

Upper Caste           20%
OBC                       40%
 Yadavs                      10%
 Other BC                  10%
 EBC                          20%
Dalits                    20%
 Jatavs                      10%
 Non-Jatavs Dalits      10%
Muslims                20%

The BJP plan is roughly
a) For Jatavs, Muslims, Yadavs which add up to 40% of the vote, just cede them all and target winning about 7.5% of this group or 3% of the total vote
b) For Upper castes which add up to 20% of the vote, assume that BJP will manage to keep most of its 2014 result and win around 65% of them or 13% of the total vote using the traditional Upper Caste BJP turnout machine
c) For the rest (Non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBC) which are 40% of the vote, ally with EBC parties like AD and SBSP as well as run a lot of of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit candidates along with the Modi brand to win almost have of this vote which adds up to 19% of the total vote.

This means BJP+ would win 3%+13%+19%=35% which would lead to

BJP+     35%
SP-INC  32%
BSP       24%

For BJP+ to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



The SP-INC plan is roughly
1) For Yadav and Muslims vote which adds up to 30% of the vote win around 2/3 of that voting bloc for 20% of the total vote based on the traditional SP Yadav turnout machine plus projecting itself as the main opponent of BJP+ and have the Muslim vote come to SP-INC by itself.  
2) Give up on the Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote.
3) For the remaining  60% of the vote (which are Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits, and non-Yadav OBC) win 1/4 of the vote for 15% of the total vote based on residual INC support among Upper Castes   and non-Jatav Dalits, old SP turnout machine among EBCs, and the Akhilesh Yadav clean image to capture non-Yadav BC and  Upper Caste votes.  For SP and INC strongholds use traditional candidates.  In other districts renominate cleaner image SP MLAs  to coordinate with the Akhilesh Yadav image based campaign.  

This means SP-INC would win 20%+15%=35% which would lead to

SP-INC  35%
BJP+     32%
BSP       24%

For a SP-INC to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



BSP plan is roughly
1) Count on the BSP core Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote to come back to BSP and win 80% to get 8% of the total without nominating Jadav candidates.
2) Nominate some Non-Jatav Dalit but too many and count on the Non-Jatav Dalit vote which is 10% of t he vote to come back to BSP and win half of the vote to win 5% of the total vote.
3) Nominate large number of Muslim candidates (over 100 out of 403 seats) to target to Muslim vote which is 20% of the vote to win about 1/3 of the vote for 7% of the total vote.
4) For the remaining 60% of the vote (OBC and Upper Castes) win around 15% of the vote by nominating candidates from OBC and Upper castes based on the caste demographics of of the district for 10% of the vote vote.

This means BSP would win 8%+5%+7%+10%=30% which would lead to

BSP       30%
BJP+     30%
SP-INC  30%

For a three way tie between the three blocs which is the best BSP can hope for.

[jaichind]

Current betting markets are giving the BSP a pretty good result

BJP+      161
SP-INC   150
BSP         72
Others     20

[jaichind]

UP 6th phase voting done.  Turnout was 57.03% while in 2012 the same districts turnout was 55.04%.

7th phase will be March 8th when all voting will be done and exit polls will come out.

[jaichind]

More NDTV analysis of UP

Gives communal breakdown of UP


Points that East UP and West UP vote on different things


Points out that "higher" Dalits which are Jatavs vote BSP while "lower" Dalits might go BJP


Points out the UP anti-BJP grand alliance is weaker than the Bihar anti-BJP grand alliance


Points out that winner needs 35% of the vote


Old talking point that BJP+ would have to suffer a large swing from 2014 to lose this election


Points out where the core votes are for each bloc


Points out that SP seems to be targeting Yadavs, Upper Caste and does not prioritize non-Yadav OBC


If 2012 is the baseline then SP-INC would make a significant difference


But if 2014 is the baseline then BJP has too much of a vote share lead for SP-INC to make much of a difference


Shows where each bloc might be vulnerable


Talks about how UP is mostly rural


And that SP-INC and BSP tends to do better in rural areas while BJP is stronger in the cities



Points out that BJP has an edge based on ground reports

[jaichind]

Now that NDTV's Prannoy Roy projects a BJP victory (although not necessary absolute majority) over SP-INC, it seems India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai also made pretty much the same projection.  These two are the among to the English speaking journalists in India.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a view that in UP in a 3 way race 35% should be enough to secure a majority and that the BJP is closing in on that threshold.  I guess looking at UP assembly elections in the 1990s when the BJP was the most powerful political force in UP seems to indicate that the structure of the BJP vote would indicate that BJP might need to do a bit better than 35% to win a majority of the seats if we correctly strip out the Uttarakhand results from the 1991 1993 and 1996 UP assembly election results.

[jaichind]

UP 1991 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         397             204               31.32%

BJP rebel                          0                 0.28%
SHS           14                  1                 0.13%

INC+        396               44               16.98%

INC rebel                         0                 0.32%

JD+          377               92               19.77%

CPI+          52                 5                 1.37%  (includes CPM, had tactical alliance with JD+)

SJP+        390               34               13.31%

SJP rebel                         5                 0.60%

BSP          371               12                 9.70%

There was a JD government in UP since 1989 and fell due to the split of JD at the center where SJP split from JD.  In UP Mulayam Singh Yadav was the face of SJP and the original plan was for a INC-SJP alliance which had the potential to beat back the surging BJP.  At the last minute SJP called off the alliance and it was a 5 way battle between BJP, INC, JD, SJP and BSP.  BJP won a bare majority of seats in what is now UP despite winning over 31% of the vote in a 5 way race.



The LS election held at the same time produced the following results

UP 1991 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          79                46               32.39%

INC+         79                  5               18.07%
 
JD+           77                23               23.90%   (includes CPI and CPM)

SJP            77                 4               10.94%

BSP+         66                 1                 9.10%

Mostly same as assembly election with JD+ being helped by explicit alliance with CPM-CPI but BJP doing better in terms of seat count relative to assembly election results.  SJP did worse in LS elections relative to assembly elections due to the fact that SJP only had one start campaigner, Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was focused more on the assembly election to retain his position as CM.

[jaichind]

UP 1993 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP           401              165               33.18%

BJP rebel                          2                  0.45%

INC+       400                22                14.38%

INC rebel                         0                   0.36%

SP+         401              177                30.21%   (includes BSP)

SP rebel                           2                  0.90%
BSP rebel                         0                  0.34%

SJP          289                  1                  0.53%

JD+         360                27                12.46%

JD rebel                           1                  0.10%

CPI+        49                   4                  1.08%  (includes CPM, has tactical alliance with JD+)

The BJP government fell in 1993 after it was dismissed by the INC government at the center for the riots which led to the destruction of the Ayodhya masque.  In the meantime Mulayam Singh Yadav split from SJP forming SP which left SJP as a tiny force in UP.  Proto-RLD led by Ajit Singh split from JD and merged into INC.  In 1991 the 5 way battle led to the following pecking order  BJP, JD, INC, SJP, BSP.  The risk of extinction was heavy on SP and BSP who decided to form an OBC-Dalit alliance.  This bloc did very well and won the most seats, beating back BJP, despite winning less votes than BJP in what is now UP.  Now it is JD and INC that are at risk of extinction.  

[jaichind]

There was a LS election in 1996 before the UP assembly elections with the result being

UP 1996 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          80               50                34.50%   (includes SAP)

INC            80                5                   8.05%

INC rebel                        1                  0.67%
AIIC(T)      71                 0                  1.79%   (AIIC(T) was an INC splinter)

SP+          80               18                26.89%    (includes JD, CPM CPI)

SP rebel                         0                  0.42%                    

BSP          80                 6                20.98%

AD            42                 0                 0.51%   (AD is a BSP splinter)



The a few months went by before the UP assembly elections with results being:

UP 1996 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          403             161              32.63%  (includes SAP)

BJP rebel                           1                0.45%

SP+           402            132               29.46%  (includes JD, BKKP (prooto-RLD),
                                                                        INC splinter AIIC(T), CPM, CPI)

SP rebel                           3                 0.68%
JD rebel                           1                 0.27%
BKKP rebel                       1                 0.28%
SJP             77                 1                 0.61%

BSP+        403            100                28.36%  (includes INC)

INC rebel                        1                  0.43%
BSP rebel                        1                  0.27%

AD           150                 0                 0.80%  (AD is BSP splinter)

The SP-BSP government collapsed after a couple of years due to personality clashed between SP's Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP's Mayawati.  A BSP-BJP government was formed but also then fell apart with 1996 elections being called.  In the meantime BKKP which is proto-RLD split out from INC while the AIIC(T) split from INC as well taking with it a good chunk of INC upper caste vote as well as a good part of its Uttarakhand base.   Fearing extinction, just liked SP and BSP did after 1991, INC joined up with BSP and JD joined up with SP.  CPI-CPM also joined up with SP.  The result was a fairly even three way split of votes and seats.
  

[jaichind]

After 1996 elections there was a deadlock.  Eventually a BSP-BJP government was formed which fell apart almost right away.  The BJP lured significant number of BSP and INC defectors to join BJP or to form pro-BJP splinters like INC splinter ABLTC and a barely stable majority as formed.  The political price the BJP had to pay to secure these defections formed the basis of the decline of the BJP which coupled with its inability to resolve its Upper Caste vs OBC factional disputes finally led to setback for the BJP in UP starting in 1999.

The lesson of these elections in the 1990s was that while the BJP could win 30%+ vote share in UP, in assembly elections the rarely translated into a majority of seats or even the largest party even as such vote shares were able to do well for the BJP in the LS elections. 

1996 UP assembly elections might be the best model for the current election with a 3 way battle and BJP seeming to have the upper hand in terms of vote share.  That high BJP+ vote share did translate into BJP being the largest party but nowhere near majority.

[jaichind]

The media narrative last couple of weeks has shifted from a SP-INC victory to advantage BJP.  This is based on ground reports that SP-INC does not seem to be gaining that much beyond its Muslim-Yadav core, SP and INC are not effective in tranfering votes to each other, and that in many seats INC are fielding weak candidates which the BJP can take advantage.  Also the view is that BJP-AD plus SBSP has 43.7% of the vote in 2014 LS election and even a swing of around 8% would still put BJP-AD-SBSP above 35%.

Business standard did come out with a narrative which looks at it the way I looked at it a few weeks ago. Namely the 18 UP by-elections after 2014 indicates that BJP's vote loss could be well above 8%





Now, SP's real strength is significantly worse than these numbers would infer since the ruling party tends to do better in assembly by-elections in India for pork barrel politics reasons.  But still, with BSP not running and the Dalit open to BJP poaching the BJP lost 11% from its 2014 levels.  Also a look at UP assembly and LS elections since the 1990s indicates that BJP tends to lose around 2% of its LS vote in an assembly election in UP anyway even if the LS and assembly election are held on the same day or a few months apart.  Plus, it is totally possible that BJP+ could beat SP-INC in terms of vote share but lose the seat count depending on how the BSP vote is structured.

[jaichind]

Last phase of UP done along with the second phase of Manipur.  Turnout in 7th phase of UP was 60.03% while back in 2012 it was 57.92% for the same districts.  This higher turnout seems to have benefited BJP where non-Yadav OBC seems to be gravitating toward BJP+ while it is more negative for BSP whose high Dalit turnout is diluted by higher turnout for Non-Yadav OBCs.

Exit polls will come out tomorrow since there is one seat in UP which will vote tomorrow due to death of the SP candidate.

[jaichind]

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80

[jaichind]

My algorithm on converting exit poll results to real results.

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.

[jaichind]

Most political pundits seem to converge toward the following narrative

1) BJP+ will win UP but fall short of majority
2) SP-INC alliance prevented BJP+ majority
3) SP-INC alliance could have done better if INC got around 60 instead of 103 seats as many INC candidates were seen as weak and not able to pull in the SP vote bloc giving a free walk to BJP+

Indian equity markets pretty much priced in a BJP+ plurality if not majority in UP.  A BJP setback could lead to a very large drop in Indian equity markets. 

[jaichind]

It seems neither BJP nor SP are that confident of victory.  Rajnath Singh, a key BJP leader and former CM of UP indicated that if it was not for the SP-INC alliance BJP would have won 300+ seats versus just a simple majority.  Akhilesh Yadav stated that if it was not for Modi the UP BJP would have faced a total wipeout in the UP elections versus just a simple SP-INC victory.  Both sides are claiming victory but putting in subtle conditions on why they might not do as well as their boasts. 

[jaichind]

Turnout overall in UP is 60.9% while in 2012 UP assembly elections was 59.15%.  In 2014 LS elections turnout was 58.4%.  The trend last decade or so was for turnout to rise.  I suspect turnout in 2017 is about the same as 2012 as part of the reasons for the turnout increase is better pruning of voter rolls.  Overall higher turnout should help BJP (since Upper Caste and OBCs tend to vote at lower rates than Dalits) and hurt BSP.

[jaichind]

India Today panel of experts predict UP election results

A slight majority has BJP ahead but without majority.  It would be funny if the Astrologer/Numerologist/Tarot card reader ends up closest to the mark.


Manisha Priyam (Political analyst)
BJP                        170-180
SP-Cong                100-110
BSP                        90-100
RLD                         20-30

Ajit Jha (Editor, research, India Today)
BJP                          170
SP-Cong                  130
BSP                           90
RLD                            7

Javed Ansari (Executive editor, India Today)
BJP                          160
SP-Cong              140-150
BSP                      90-105
RLD                       12-15

Sunita Aron (Senior journalist)
BJP                      160-180
SP-Cong              130-150
BSP                      90-100

Uday Sinha (Political analyst)
BJP                    90-110
SP-Cong           195-210
BSP                 105-115
RLD                    8-15

Sharat Pradhan (Senior journalist)
BJP                 170-180
SP-Cong         150-160
BSP                  70-80
RLD                   5-10

Anupam Kapil (Astrologer)
BJP                   160
SP-Cong           185
BSP                   53
RLD                    5

Veo Pratap Vaidik (Senior journalist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           190
BSP                   60
RLD                    6

Rishi Dwivedi (Numerologist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           140
BSP                  120
RLD                     7

Shella Bajaj (tarot card reader)
BJP                   150
SP-Cong           190
BSP                 65-69
RLD                   5-10
 


They also show the various bookie numbers which are totally crazy and out of sync with each other.  They range from BJP being first or third and BSP being first to third.  SP-INC seems to be either first or second.

Delhi

BJP               160-170
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP                 70-75
 

Agra

BJP                 75-80
SP-Cong        155-160
BSP               125-130


Kolkata

BJP                 90-95
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP               155-160
 

Lucknow

BJP                 80-85
SP-Cong        170-175
BSP               120-125

Indore

BJP                180-185
SP-Cong        130-135
BSP                 68-70



The average of all these bookie numbers are

BJP                117-123
SP-INC          147-152
BSP               108-112

BSP numbers seem very high.  My guess is that it seems most people are betting for a low seat count for BSP so the bookies has to raise its break-even target for BSP to hedge themselves.

[jaichind]

Exit polls coming out soon.  BJP claims 200+ seats while SP claims SP-INC to win 180-190.  BSP is silent.

[jaichind]

Oxus Investments, which did a very good job of predicting 2016 assembly election results came out with



Which has BJP ahead across the board although SAD-BJP totally crushed in Punjab
 

[jaichind]

India TV-CVoter  Manipur exit poll

BJP     35%   28
INC    32%   20
Others         12

Goa



BJP      36%   18
INC     32%    15
AAP      13%    2
Others             6

[jaichind]

NewsX UP exit poll




BJP+      185    33%
SP-INC   120    28%
BSP          90    25%
Others       8     14%

[jaichind]

Newsx Goa exit poll



BJP      15    31%
INC     10     26%
AAP      7     20%
MAG+  2       6%
Others  6     17%

[jaichind]

NewsX Punjab exit polls



SAD-BJP      7   20%
INC           55   33%
AAP           55   37%
Others        0    10%