Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Early voting now at over 13 million votes which would put early voting turnout at around 13%.  This is an increase of 24% from 2013 mostly due to an increase in early voting booths.    In a bad sign for LDP in 青森(Aomori), early voting there is up 64%.  If overall turnout is around 51%-52% then LDP-KP and JCP should do well.  If it is up to 54%-55% then that is a positive sign for DP and to some extent ORA.

[jaichind]

Final 日刊ゲンダイ (Nikkan Gendai) projection.  

Nikkan Gendai has, in this cycle, heen the most negative on LDP.  Now even it has abandoned me in projecting a fairly large LDP PR vote, mostly partly based on a collapse of the ORA vote.  At this stage I am pretty much alone in projecting a LDP-KP PR vote share that is not close to 50%



1- seats LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  1                       4
DP                 11                  22.0%               22                     33
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164 which is 2 more than the 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Someone posted a chart of seat count projection for each party based on turnout.   OPP is opposition bloc of SDP+PLP+anti-LDP independents.  While I do not agree with exact number it does give a good sense of the relative strengths of each party with different ranges of turnout.

        DP JCP ORA LDP KP OPP LDP+  Constitution change
45% 21  10  *6  65  15  *4    80               86
46% 22  *9  *7  64  15  *4    79               86
47% 23  *9  *7  63  15  *4    78               85
48% 25  *8  *8  61  14  *4    75               83
49% 26  *8  *8  60  14  *5    74               82
50% 27  *8  *8  58  14  *6    72               80
51% 28  *8  *8  57  14  *6    71               79
52% 30  *7  *8  56  14  *6    70               78
53% 31  *7  *8  55  14  *6    69               77
54% 32  *7  *9  54  13  *6    67               76
55% 34  *6  *9  53  13  *6    66               75
56% 35  *6  10  52  12  *6    64               74
57% 36  *6  10  51  12  *6    63               73
58% 37  *7  *9  50  12  *6    62               71
59% 37  *7  10  49  12  *6    61               71
60% 38  *7  *9  49  12  *6    61               70           

[jaichind]

With most media and political analyst projecting LDP-KP-ORA will cross or get very close to the 78 seats necessary for LDP-KP-ORA-PJK to get to 162 of 2/3 majority, SEALD is making one last push to prevent this.  SEALD is the grassroots anti-new security law group which organized mass protests last year against the new security law.  SEALD also pretty much organized/forced JP-PLP-SDP-JCP to come together and run a common candidate in all 32 single district seats.  The hawkish Right claim that SEALD is a front organization for North Korea and controlled by ethnic Koreans.

Anyway, looking at where SEALD is making appeals gives us a good idea how they judge the election and where they practically are pushing tactical voting.  



SEALD is making, for single member districts, a GOTV drive for 青森(Aomori), 秋田(Akita), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), 山梨(Yamanashi), 滋賀(Shiga), 三重(Mie), 愛媛(Ehime), and 大分(Ōita).  I like the fact that they agree with me that Akita and Shiga are in play while most media outfits has written them off already for the opposition.  They also must feel that Northern prefectures 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) are in the bag along with 沖縄(Okinawa).  For Miyagi, Yamagata, and Fukushima SEALD might have also made the calculation that TPP will lead LDP voters to defect to the opposition and that an appeal by SEALD on the Constitution revision issue might backfire on these hawkish LDP voter who might otherwise defect to the opposition on the TPP issue.

For the multi-member district, SEALD is calling for

1) A vote for the JCP candidate in 埼玉(Saitama).  Here LDP and DP will win a seat for sure.  DP tactical voting with its excess votes for JCP might help it beat out KP for the third and last seat.  SEALD got this dynamic right but most likely JCP will not get to 20% to beat out KP.
2) A vote for the second DP candidate in 東京 (Tokyo).  Here SEALD also has the tactical voting dynamics right. DP's Renho and the JCP both have fairly large base so both are assured a win.  LDP and KP both will also win a seat each for sure.  It comes down to the second DP, second LDP and ORA candidate fighting for the last two seats.  SEALD is correct in dumping their resources in GOTV for the second DP candidate to ensure a 3rd seat for the anti-Constitutional change opposition.
3) Evenly distribute vote for a DP candidate or JCP candidate in 神奈川(Kanagawa).  Here LDP and KP will win a seat for sure.  LDP is backing an ex-YP incumbent to run as an independent.  Two DP candidates and JCP are running as well.  SEALD is correct in pushing GOTV for the stronger of the DP candidate and the JCP to ensure that the anti-Constitutional change opposition wins 2 seats out of 4.
4) Evenly distribute vote for a DP candidate or JCP candidate in 愛知(Aichi).  Here  LDP and KP will win a seat for sure. DP is running two candidates along with JCP.  ORA-TCJ is also in the run as well.  It seems that ORA backed TCJ candidate is really going nowhere so the anti-Constitutional change opposition are pretty much a lock to win 2 out of 4.  What SEALD is really doing here is get the JCP candidate to get election over the more centrist and weaker DP candidate.  
5) Vote for JCP in 大阪(Osaka).  Here LDP, KP, and ORA will all win a seat.  A second ORA candidate is trying to win the last seat for a clean sweep for the pro-Constitutional change bloc.  DP has declined over the years in Osaka to almost single digit support.  It makes sense for SEALD to call for tactical voting for JCP to beat back ORA.
6) Vote for DP in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  There LDP and ORA will win a seat each.  KP is running to capture the third seat.  Between DP and JCP candidates DP is stronger here so it make sense for SEALD to call for tactical voting for DP to block KP.  The changes are solid if not likely this will work.  LDP-KP relationship is not that good in Hyōgo and KP is running here for the first time and could stumble.  

I am surprised they are not including 北海道(Hokkaido) in their efforts in calling for a equal split vote for the two DP candidates to beat out LDP to win 2 out of 3 seats.  It could be they feel it is in the bag and/or Hokkaido will see a swing to the opposition due to TPP and it is best that SEALD does not provoke the hawkish LDP voters who are likely to vote opposition over TPP.

One way or another, if there are going to be tactical voting Sunday the direction of SEALD's GOTV efforts is an indication of how they will work out.

[jaichind]

Final projection from me.   I am pretty much going to double down on LDP-KP doing poorly on the PR section when compared to CW.  I give LDP-KP 44.5% in terms of PR vote and 65 seats overall.  The rest of Japan political pundit space has swung toward the LDP-KP which I feel if anything would trigger greater DP-JCP tactical voting.   At this stage I am pretty much alone in predicting this sort of showing for LDP-KP.  Everyone else has LDP-KP PR at at least around 50% if not greater.

For multi-member districts I put the result in vote share rank and will show runner up in brackets.  

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP DP DP  (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             DP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP backed independent          
宮城   Miyagi               1            DP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent                          
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP (DP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP  (LDP backed independent)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             DP          
東京   Tokyo              6             DP LDP JCP KP LDP DP (ORA)    
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP backed independent                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DP KP DP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             DP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP (ORA)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP ORA DP (KP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP (ORA)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             AO backed independent    

This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 21-11

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 31.00%               36                     52
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 13.50%                6                     13
ORA                 5                   9.50%                 2                      7
PJK                  0                   1.00%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.00%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 12                  24.50%               22                    34
SDP                 1                    2.50%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.50%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.50%               3                      10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 156, 6 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 162, exactly 2/3 majority.

Changes from last projection has TPP making an even greater impact in the North which made 青森(Aomori) flip from LDP to DP. Also greater tactical voting in 兵庫(Hyōgo) by JCP voters pushing DP over KP.

Also for 秋田(Akita) and 滋賀(Shiga) my projection finds the DP within striking distance of LDP even as CW gives neither any realistic shot at DP winning.

As for the CW projections I took the medium projection of media outfits, Japanese political discussion boards, and various political analysts.  

The main difference with my projection are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) the CW projection has LDP winning 2 seats out of 3 seats  Here the issue is how LDP will divide it votes among its 2 candidates relative to DP.  I also had LDP winning 2 out of 3 but ground reports I read say that DP will do a better job and win 2 seats despite a lower vote share.
2) In 山梨(Yamanashi) the CW projection has LDP winning because of the effect of the DP rebel in the race.  My projection says that DP will still win.
3) In 大阪(Osaka) the CW projection has ORA winning the last of 4 seats over my prediction of JCP.  I view JCP victory as the result of DP tactical voting for JCP.
4) In 大分(Ōita) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.  
5) In 青森(Aomori) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.
6) In 兵庫(Hyōgo) the CW projection has KP winning the last seat versus DP.

Out of all these differences significant minorities of various projections also share my positions on each one of these differences.  The longest shot would be 兵庫(Hyōgo).

Also CW has 愛媛(Ehime) neck-to-neck with LDP with a tiny edge.  My projection has LDP with a solid lead.

The medium CW projection:

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.00%               40                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.00%                7                     14
ORA                 4                   7.75%                 3                      7
PJK                  0                   1.25%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.25%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 11                  21.50%               17                    28
SDP                 1                    2.00%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.25%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.00%               2                        9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                        4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.

[jaichind]

This is the Japanese version of "I side with"

http://nihonseiji.com/votematches/1

I took it and found that PLP is in theory the party I should support.  My results were:

PLP   59
SDP  55
JCP   53
KP    52
ORA  52
DP    48
PJK   40
LDP  39

I guess my score is mainly explained by my opposition to Abenomics and this QE heterodoxy by the BOJ.   Of course many of my answers where Libertarian in nature which then lowers my score among the center-left parties.  The result is my scores for each party are clustered around 50.

[jaichind]

Voting starts (actually around 37 min ago).  Overall weather is fairly mild with some short bursts of rain here or there.  A week ago weather forecasts had all of Japan raining the entire day.

[jaichind]

8AM report from Tokyo's 目黒区 (Meguro district)

http://www.city.meguro.tokyo.jp/gyosei/senkyo/sangiin/tohyosokuho.files/tohyosokuho.pdf

~400 people voted by 8AM when compared to ~200 in 2013
~5300 people voted by 9AM (2.29%) when compared to ~4400 in 2013 (1.59%)

Meguro is the type of district that DP needs to have higher turnout to have a chance.

[jaichind]

As of 9AM.  So far turnout in lower in several places when compared to 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 3.13% vs 3.85%
埼玉(Saitama) 2.68% vs 2.90%
神奈川(Kanagawa) 3.38% vs 3.53%
愛知(Aichi) 4.13% vs 4.19%

[jaichind]

As of 9AM Tokyo turnout is up at 3.57% versus 3.21% in 2013.

[jaichind]

Yikes. This is going to be bad.

Perhaps.  On the other hand higher early voting means that turnout is already up by 2.2%.  There is plenty of time for turnout to pickup in the afternoon leading to an increase in turnout relative to 2013.

[jaichind]

Token post asking for English results web page? Thanks.

Glad to know the LDP machine is still well oiled.

This will not be easy.  Best one I can think of is NHK's English site.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

But it will be slower than the Kanji version.  The Japanese does not make it easy for someone to follow live election results for someone that does not read Kanji or understand Japanese.

[jaichind]

As of 10PM turnout looks like

青森(Aomori) 11.63% up from 10.56% in 2013
東京(Tokyo)  7.09% up from 6.52% in 2013
神奈川(Kanagawa) 6.87% down from 7.11% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 6.40% down from 7.60% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 10.30% up from 10.26% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 9.95% down from 10.52% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 5.73% down from 6.24% in 2013
長野(Nagano) 9.46% up from 9.42% in 2013
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 10.69% down from 11.37% in 2013 -> this is surprising given there is a Governor race here as well

[jaichind]

As of 11PM turnout looks like

愛知(Aichi) 13.64% up from 13.56% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 11.12% down from 12.68 in 2013 -> This is bad news for ORA, good news for JCP
神奈川(Kanagawa) 11.72% down from 12.08 in 2013
東京(Tokyo) 11.54% up from 11.10% in 2013
埼玉(Saitama) 10.21% down from 10.74% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 15.05% up from 14.23% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 15.11% down from 15.79% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 10.35% down from 10.42% in 2013

[jaichind]

As of 4PM turnout is 27.25% which is 0.04% higher than 2013.

The current turnout projection based on the data so far plus early voting has it at 55.89% up 3.28% since 2013

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 6PM by region

東京(Tokyo) 35.10% up from 33.05% in 2013
青森(Aomori) 32.62% up from 30.30% in 2013
山形(Yamagata) 39.79% down from 41.29% in 2013
宮城(Miyagi) 32.37% down from 33.58% in 2013
岩手(Iwate) 36.88% down from 39.87% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 30.97% up from 29.72% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 33.24% down from 33.87% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 30.94% down from 32.37% in 2013
神奈川(Kanagawa) 33.86% down from 34.19% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 31.07% up from 29.90% in 2013
茨城(Ibaraki) 30.72% down from 33.04% in 2013
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 35.11% up from 29.17% in 2013 -> Governor race also on the same day
新潟(Niigata) 39.40% up from 39.17% in 2013

[jaichind]

As of 6PM overall turnout 32.49% down from 32.64% in 2013.  Note that this does not include early voting where turnout is up 2.57% from 2013.  So most likely we will end up with turnout of around 54.5%-55% or so.

Overall turnout dropped the most in areas where ORA is strong plus some LDP strongholds.  Tokyo turnout is up which is driving the average.

[jaichind]

Turnout chart by time

　　　　　2016　　2013　　 Diff
10am　*7.92%　*8.61%　▼0.69P
11am　13.22%　13.72%　▼0.50P
02pm　22.54%　22.66%　▼0.12P
04pm　27.25%　27.21%　＋0.04P
06pm　32.49%　32.64%　▼0.15P

Early
Vote     15.00%   12.43% ＋2.57P　　

[jaichind]

As of 7pm

埼玉(Saitama) 33.04% down from 34.85% in 2013 drop of 1.81%.  As of 6pm the drop was 1.85%
大阪市 (Osaka City) 33.16% down from 35.89% drop of 2.73%.  As of 6pm the drop was 1.43%. 

Osaka turnout is falling fast.  Bad news for ORA.

[jaichind]

As of 7:30PM

Turnout in 福岡(Fukuoka) surged to 48.69% up from 45.02% in 2013.  Not clear why this is.  The race is is not that competitive.    In theory good news for DP but this is a LDP stronghold so it could be a net wash in terms of net PR vote affect.

For 神奈川(Kanagawa) it is 38.75% down for 39.47% in 2013 for a decrease of 0.72%.  As of 6PM the drop was 0.33%.  The race here is quite competitive but I guess turnout ran out of steam toward the end.

[jaichind]

Live Japanese link for NHK

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

It is active now.  Exit polls will be announced here in 5 min.

[jaichind]

LDP-KP 67-76
LDP-KP-ORA 75-85
LDP 54-61
KP 13-15
DP 26-32
JCP 5-8
ORA 6-9

[jaichind]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

[jaichind]

NHK projects opposition wins 岩手(Iwate)  山形(Yamagata) 沖縄(Okinawa) for sure

[jaichind]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

That's not even an absolute majority... Isn't that a huge underperformance?

This is out of 121.  They have to get to 78 to get to 2/3 majority with the same bloc having 84 from the 2013 election.