Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Latest JNN poll



PR vote

LDP     32 (-4)
KP        6  (+2)
ORA      4 (+2)
DP      11 (---)
PLP       1 (+1)
SDP      1 (---)
JCP       7 (+1)

Similar to other recent polls.  LDP-KP on the decline to the benefit of ORA.

[jaichind]

Gendai or Modern magazine which published a secret DP report a few weeks ago now claims they got their hands on the internal LDP polls in critical battleground prefectures.  The results seems to match various media polls makes me suspicious this is just a made up report and there is no top secret LDP internal poll.



Reading the report on gets.

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido), just like media polls, LDP has greater vote share but due to maldistribution of the LDP vote, DP is likely to win 2 seats to 1 LDP.  There is the additional factor of the LDP rebel and possible JCP tactical voting.  
2) In 青森(Aomori) and 山梨(Yamanashi) it is neck-to-neck between LDP and the opposition candidate.  For Aomori it must be related to the impact of TPP.
3) In Northern prefectures 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) the LDP is being blown away.  If true the affect of TPP must be strong.  
4) In 千葉(Chiba) where LDP should be in a good position to win 2 out of 3 seats has LDP winning 1 and a 4 way tie between the 2 DP, second LDP, and the JCP candidate for the last 2 seats.  Danger for LDP to not winning the second seat.
5) In 東京(Tokyo) LDP's second candidate has lost ground to the ORA candidate and it is ORA vs DP for the sixth and last seat.  Main problem for DP here is that the other DP candidate Renho, is pulling in a lot of DP votes.  So even though ORA grew at the expense of LDP it is DP that is in danger of losing its second seat.  It also shows that SDP and NPR candidates pulling in some support but the other minor party candidates like PJK, VPA, NW, and other center-left independents  does not seem to be having much impact.
6) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) the LDP will win 1 of 4 seats.  It is a 4 way tie between KP DP JCP and LDP backed independent for the remaining 3 seats.  ORA and the second DP are out of the running.  DP will need tactical voting to keep out the LDP backed independent.  The ORA seems to be having no real impact.
7) In 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), and 三重(Mie) the LDP is well behind and will most likely lose.  If true then DP-JCP cooperation which was in suspect in Nagano and Mie must be working there.
8 ) In 滋賀(Shiga), LDP is well ahead.  This is confusing.  If the LDP is being beating badly in other battleground prefectures, then LDP should be at best neck-to-neck in Shiga.  My model has Shiga as a win for the opposition.   The DP incumbent is actually married to a LDP MP.
9) In 愛知(Aichi) DP in danger of losing the 4th and final seat to JCP.  Here it seems ORA is not having much of an impact.
10) In 大阪(Osaka), JCP is behind but within striking distance the second ORA candidate for the 4th seat.  DP tactical voting for JCP will be needed for JCP to beat the second ORA candidate.
11) In 兵庫(Hyōgo), DP behind but within striking distance to KP and ORA to capture the third and final seat.  JCP tactical voting for DP will be necessary for DP to win.
12) In 愛媛(Ehime) where some media outlets suggested that the opposition could win over LDP in this LDP stronghold it seems that LDP as re-taken the upper hand.
13) In 大分(Ōita) LDP has the upper hand but DP within striking distance.  
14) In 沖縄(Okinawa) it is a blowout landslide for opposition over LDP which is not a surprise except perhaps the margin.  

Overall these results seems merely just match what the media polls imply.  I wonder why they do not have 埼玉(Saitama) where there is recent talk that JCP might overtake KP and capture the third and final seat.  Same for 秋田(Akita) where it they are going to claim these massive defeat for LDP in the North then it makes sense to poll Akita where LDP then would have a solid chance of losing as well.

[jaichind]

Final NHK poll

Abe Approval 46/37


4 party opposition approval 42/49 which is a swing of -2 from last week


Abenomics 44/48


Party support
LDP                 35.5
KP                     5.9
PJK                    0.2
ORA                   2.1
DP                     8.8
PLP                   0.2
SDP                  0.7
JCP                   4.3


On these numbers the projected vote share for LDP-KP which is the last NHK support for LDP-KP plus 2%-3% yields 43.5%-44.5%.  Main risk of this projection is that unaligned seems very high in this poll.  DP would need a higher turnout (around 55% or higher) to hold LDP-KP to these levels.

Certain to vote on election day is 55% plus another 9% that claimed to have voted early (the real number is around 6.5%) which if true is bad news for LDP-KP and JCP.

[jaichind]

Early voting has reached 6.5 million votes, 43% increase from 2013 for the same period.  This mainly because they expanded the number of voting stations that will take early votes.  Still, overall good news for opposition.  If turnout stays at around 50%-52% then LDP-KP and to some extent JCP will benefit.  DP and to some extent ORA benefit from higher turnout.

[jaichind]

It seems that if Abe is determined to push through Constitutional change after the 2016 Upper House election he should be in position to do so as long as he is willing to pay political capital for it and LDP-KP does not experience a disastrous result 7/10.

The Composition of the Upper House which are not for re-election are

90 for Constitutional change    
 65 LDP
 11 KP
   5 ORA
   3 PJK
   1 AEJ
   1 NPR
   3 ex-YP
   1 ex-PFG

31 against Constitutional change    
 18 DP
   1 SDP
   8 JCP
   1 PLP
   1 AEJ
   1 ex-YP
   1 OSMP

This comes from the following migration pattern of those elected in 2013
 65 LDP -> 65 LDP
 11 KP -> 11 KP
 17 DPJ -> 17 DP
  8 JCP -> 8 JCP
  8 JRP -> 5 JIP->ORA, 2 PFG->PJK, 1 PFG->anti Constitutional change AEJ
  8 YP -> 3 pro Constitutional change ex-YP, 1 pro Constitutional change AEJ, 1 PFG->PJK,
              1 UP->JIP->DP, 1 PFG->ex-PFG, 1 anti Constitutional change ex-YP
  1 OSMP -> 1 OSMP
  1 SDP -> 1 SDP
  1 Far Left Independent -> 1 PLP
  1 PLP rebel -> 1 NPR
 
So this upcoming election the pro-Constitutional change bloc (LDP, KP, ORA, PJK) has to win 72 to get 2/3 majority.  The medium projection for LDP-KP right now is around 71-72 while the medium projection for ORA is around 6-7.  Even my pessimistic projection for LDP-KP has them winning 66 and ORA winning 7 which puts them one above 162.  So as long as Abe can pay off KP to go along with Constitutional change  and manage the volatile ORA and the various center-right independents on paper he can get Constitutional change passed.  

If we just limit ourselves to just the 4 parties for Constitutional change (LDP, KP, ORA PJK) then they currently hold 84 seats in the part of the Upper House that is not up for re-election.  For this same bloc to get to 162 they have to get 78 seats this upcoming election.   The medium projections for LDP-KP and ORA shows they are very close and would either barely make it or barely miss it.

The referendum is another story.  My sense is that unless Abe wins an unexpected large victory he will not have the political capital to pay off so many actors.

[jaichind]

TV Asahi (ANN) poll

Abe Cabinet Approval 42.2/38.9

PR vote (change from a month ago)


 
LDP          31.4  (-1.2 )
KP             5.5   (-0.9)
ORA           2.9  (+0.9)
PJK            0.1  (+0.1)
NPR           0.1  (-----)
DP           14.6  (+1.2)
PLP           0.4  (-----)
SDP          1.0  (-0.1)
JCP           7.5  (+1.1)

LDP-KP losing ground to DP, ORA and JCP.  Using TV Asahi 2014 polls as calibration this poll implies a LDP-KP PR vote share of around 44.0%  Again the main risk is that the level of unaligned seems fairly large and is not polarized as one would expect at the end of an election campaign.

[jaichind]

July 10th would also see an election for governor of 鹿児島(Kagoshima).  Back in 2012, as is standard practice, LDP, KP, and DPJ backed the pro-LDP incumbent against the JCP backed candidate with the incumbent winning 66-34.  This time DP-PLP-SDP-JCP will back a common opposition candidate running on the anti-nuclear power platform against the LDP-KP backed incumbent.   The incumbent should win but with a reduced margin. 

[jaichind]

産経 (Sankei) (FNN) projection.  It does not break it out into PR and non PR seats



LDP           59
KP             12
ORA            7
DP            28
SDP            1
PLP             0
JCP           10
Ind.            4

Trying to read the FNN article one can sort of construct the entire projection

which if you read their article you can construct

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                40                     59
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  5                     12
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  2                      7
DP                 10                  19.5%                18                    28
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 4                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

Here KP PR vote is keeping up but losing ground district areas  but LDP is making it up with a strong performance in the single member districts.

[jaichind]

With a week to go it is time for a projection update from me.    Abe's ratings has gone down recently with the center-left opposition as well as ORA gaining from this.  I give LDP-KP 44% in terms of PR vote and 67 seats overall.  For multi-member districts I put the result in vote share rank and will show runner up in brackets.  

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP DP DP  (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP backed independent          
宮城   Miyagi               1            DP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent                          
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP (DP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP  (LDP backed independent)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             DP          
東京   Tokyo              6             DP LDP JCP KP LDP DP (ORA)    
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP backed independent                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DP KP DP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             DP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP (ORA)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP ORA KP (DP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP (ORA)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             AO backed independent    

This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 30.50%               37                     53
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 13.50%                7                     14
ORA                 5                   9.75%                 2                      7
PJK                  0                   1.00%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.00%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 12                  24.00%               20                    32
SDP                 1                    2.50%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.50%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.25%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.00%               3                      10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164, 2 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

As for the CW projections I took the medium projection of media outfits, Japanese political discussion boards, and various political analysts.  

The main difference with my projection are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) the CW projection has LDP winning 2 seats out of 3 seats  Here the issue is how LDP will divide it votes among its 2 candidates relative to DP.  I also had LDP winning 2 out of 3 but ground reports I read say that DP will do a better job and win 2 seats despite a lower vote share.
2) In 山梨(Yamanashi) the CW projection has LDP winning because of the effect of the DP rebel in the race.  My projection says that DP will still win.
3) In 大阪(Osaka) the CW projection has ORA winning the last of 4 seats over my prediction of JCP.  I view JCP victory as the result of DP tactical voting for JCP.
4) In 大分(Ōita) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.  

In all these 5 differences other than Shiga all had significant minority of projections going my way.

Of course in terms of PR vote the CW projection has LDP-KP at 49.75% versus my 44%.  Part of it is I have ORA at 9.75% while the CW projection has ORA at 7.5%.  My model has ORA keeping its original pro-Hashimoto JRP center-right bloc intact while CW has some of them defecting over to LDP.

The medium CW projection:

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.75%               40                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.00%                7                     14
ORA                 4                   7.50%                 3                      7
PJK                  0                   1.25%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.25%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 11                  22.00%               17                    28
SDP                 1                    2.00%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.25%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.00%               2                        9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                        4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

There some prefectures where it is pretty close for CW to flip even though for now CW matches that of my projections.

1) In 青森(Aomori) both my and CW projections has it for LDP, but most media projections has DP winning it due to TPP.  Many as well myself are not buying it given prefecture partisan fundamentals. My model has DP coming pretty close but LDP will win.
2) In 愛知(Aichi) both my and CW projections has it for DP for the fourth and last seat.  But a large minority of CW projections has JCP winning the last seat.  I and many others do not buy it based on basic prefectural partisan fundamentals as well as DP's ability for tactical voting.   On the flip side there might be LDP to JCP tactical voting to bloc DP.  DPJ was strong in Aichi and it has provoked de facto LDP-JCP tactical alliances in the past.  It does seem that everyone agrees that the ORA-TCJ candidate is not doing well.
3) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) CW and my projections has it as LDP KP DP JCP with the LDP backed incumbent coming in 5th.  But looking at the various projections they are all over the place with a even 5 way race for the last three positions between 2 DP candidates, KP, JCP and the LDP backed independent.   This one will be wild.
4) In 埼玉(Saitama) a significant minority of the CW projections has JCP winning the third seat over KP.  KP has a large base here and traditionally wins around 19%-20% in the district seat.  JCP will need a large swing plus DP tactical voting to get over 19%.  Most likely will not take place.
5) In 兵庫(Hyōgo) a significant minority of the CW projections has DP winning the third seat over KP on the basis of JCP tactical voting.  KP does not have a base here so this is more likely than Saitama.  My projection has it very close but still gives it to KP.
6) In 東京(Tokyo) a significant minority of the CW projections has ORA winning the sixth seat over the second DP candidate.  Vote distribution issues of LDP and DP plus smaller parties all running a candidate here (PJK NRP NW SDP VPA and a PLP-backed independent) complicates the distribution of votes.  
7) In 滋賀(Shiga) I have it as neck-to-neck but with LDP with a slight edge and a significant minority of the CW projections also have it for DP.  This could go either way.
8 ) In various battleground 1- seat prefectures where the CW projection and myself have the opposition winning there are significant number of projections that has LDP winning.  They are 宮城(Miyagi), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano) and 三重(Mie).  In various other Northern battleground prefectures most CW projections agree that the opposition has them locked up.  They are 岩手(Iwate), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima).  Of course almost everyone agrees that opposition will take 沖縄(Okinawa).

[jaichind]

History of turnout in Japanese elections since 1989



Black line is Lower House elections and Red line is Upper House elections.   LDP got beat beaten badly in 1989 1998 and 2007 and was held to a marginal victory in 2004 and 2010.  All of them had high turnout and election with large LDP victories (1992 and 2013) had low turnout.  Exception was the LDP landslide of 2001 under Koizumi.

[jaichind]

Latest サンデー毎日 (Mainichi Weekly magazine) projection

Which is a much more pro-LDP projection, especially at the 1- seat district level.  They had LDP-KP at 68 seats back in early June.  Now they expect LDP-KP at 74.



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 26-6

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                42                     60
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                   8.0%                  4                       8
DP                 11                  21.5%                15                    26
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 168, 6 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 174.

Seat-by-seat projections are:

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) Final projection



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9 (no change from its projection from a couple of weeks ago)
LDP-KP went from 71 to 70 while ORA went up to 6.  So no net change for pro-Constitutional change bloc.   It does seem everyone is converging toward LDP 18 KP 7 ORA 4 DP 11 SDP 1 JCP 7 for the PR vote.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  3                       7
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                   2.0%                   0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167, 5 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Final 共同(Kyodo) projection



LDP-KP going from 73 to 74 and ORA going from 5 to 6 so a net swing toward the pro-constitutional change bloc.   Kyodo seems to double down on a massive around 55.5% PR vote share LDP-KP.  This projection is slightly more consistent by having LDP-KP and ORA winning a net increase of 2 district seats from its previous projection.  Still the district result does not jive with this sort of PR vote share.  Also a PR vote share of 55.5% would nearly match the massive 2001 Koizumi landslide when LDP-KP-NCP won 55.9% of the PR vote.  But Koizumi cabinet enjoyed a 77/9 approval rating back in 2001 elections.  

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                20                 39.5%                40                     60
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    8                 16.0%                  6                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  3                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                16                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 4                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 164, 2 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 170.

[jaichind]

Final 読売(Yomiuri)  projection



The chart is not clear but if you read their article you can extrapolate their medium projection.

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10 (no change)

LDP-KP goes from 67 to 68 while ORA stays at 8.   This projection is converging to other media projections with a slight anti-LDP bias.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                36                     54
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 5                 10.0%                   3                       8
DP                 10                  20.0%                20                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 2                       8
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 160, 2 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 166, 4 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

Yomiuri poll also shows that LDP is strong in the youth and the very elderly.  Good news for DP is that the youth will not turn out.  DP has to hope for a moderate increase in turnout which will turn out marginal middle age voters which would most likely vote DP.

[jaichind]

Level of relative support for Constitutional change (in Blue) seems to be highest in the youth and very elderly.  People in the 50s seems to the most opposed (in Red) to Constitutional change. 

[jaichind]

東京新聞 (Tokyo News) projection



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
The non-DP 1 seat district independent opposition seems to be doing well while DP is not doing well in the 1 seat districts.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                39                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                   6.0%                  3                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                16                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 162, exactly at 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 168.

[jaichind]

Final ニコニコ (Nico) projection.  Nico is a Japan version of Youtube whose election projections based on surveys of their users in 2013 and 2014 were almost dead on.  Their projection for LDP-KP went from 71 to 69 while ORA stayed at 8 from June



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
The non-DP 1 seat district independent opposition seems to be doing well while DP is not doing well in the 1 seat districts.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                37                     55
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                   8.0%                  4                       8
DP                 10                  20.0%                17                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 seat away from 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167, which would exceed 2/3 majority by 5 seats.

[jaichind]

Final 朝日 (Asahi) projections

LDP-KP flat at 71 while ORA goes from 7 to 8 so net increase of 1 for pro-constitutional change bloc.  ORA vote share surges as JCP declines from the previous projection.



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                37                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     1                       1
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  3                       8
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 2                       7
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.

They also had some graphs showing shifts in various battleground prefectures since their last survey

[jaichind]

In a sign of LDP disunity, Tokyo LDP MP 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko), former Minister of Defense  MP from Abe first term in 2007 announces that she will run for Tokyo governor regardless of if she gains the support of the LDP to run.  She always had a poor relationship with Abe and this could be the first shots of an eventual post-Abe world.   Given the fact that is sort of a maverick in the LDP she is unlikely to be backed either the Tokyo LDP nor the national LDP.  This means that the LDp will be split in the upcoming Tokyo governor election even as DP-PLP-SDP-JCP are still committed to run a unity opposition candidate.

[jaichind]

Poll from 栃木(Tochigi) for PR section and comparing it to a similar poll right before 2013 elections



LDP+ PR vote goes from 38.8% when polled in 2013 (actual result was 45.24%) and goes to 42.2%  This in theory is good news for LDP but in reality is not that great of a news.  YP ran in 2013 and given YP has a strong local bias in Tochigi (Watanabe is from Tochigi) it won 23.22% in 2013 (it polled 14.9% in the 2013 poll.)   YP is now defunct and LDP should have picked up most of the YP support.  To be up 3.4% in the poll relative to the 2013 is not that good of a news.  My model has LDP+ PR winning 55.85% in Tochigi which looks pretty much in-line with this poll. 

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) poll on PR section relative to an equivalent poll right before the 2013 elections



It has LDP-KP going from 41.5% (back in 2015 LDP-KP eventually got 50.86% on the PR section) to 34.3%.  Very large number of undecideds which I feel will mostly break toward the opposition.  TPP is a major issue in Yamagata this time and LDP will get hit by it.  My model has LDP-KP PR getting 45.64% this time around which as long as the undecideds mostly break for opposition is in-line with this poll.
 

[jaichind]

Final yet still astounding Yahoo projection.

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 28-4

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 32.0%                45                     61
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    8                 16.0%                  2                     10
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  3                       8
DP                 12                  24.0%                14                     26
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 6                     11
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.

Just like the previous Yahoo projection from late June it calls for KP and DP doing well on the PR section while there is wholesale defection from KP in the district vote for JCP on the peace platform causing a complete collapse of KP in the multi-member districts to the benefit of JCP.  Moderate hawks in DP also defect en masse in the district vote to LDP causing an opposition collapse in the 1- member districts.

To Yahoo's credit their projection in 2013 projection was pretty stop on although their 2014 projection was way off, especially in overestimating the KP PR vote.  

PR section


District



Total result

[jaichind]

Gendai or Modern magazine published a table of all key prefectures and poll results from different media surveys plus the "top secret" LDP survey.  




                      
                                  LDP   読売(Yomiuri)  朝日(Asahi)  毎日(Mainichi)  日経(Nikkei) 共同(Kyodo)  NHK
北海道(Hokkaido)  (elect 3)                    
 LDP                                        27.7                27               38.7             22               25            22.4
 LDP                                        14.7                12                 8.4             13               17            20.5  
 DP                                          22.0                18              21.3              24               13            18.6
 DP                                          22.3                16              19.6              25               27            23.1
 JCP                                          9.7                  7                 9.0              14                9              9.8
青森(Aomori)
 LDP                          43         49.1                41               55.1              46              49             49.3
 DP                            46         49.8               44                43.3             52               49             49.6
岩手(Iwate)
 LDP                          35        40.8                35                54.1             39               45             38.7
 Ind (PLP)                  49        54.6                43                44.1             55               48             58.6
宮城(Miyagi)
 LDP                          40        50.0                40                44.9             48               49            47.9
 DP                            50        48.4                50                53.9             50               48            50.1
秋田(Akita)
 LDP                                      57.3                                    64.4             54               49           55.1
 DP                                        41.6                                    33.4             45               48           40.8
山形(Yamagata)
 LDP                          34        45.5               40                 40.5             44               44           38.4
 Ind(DP)                    56        53.2               53                 58.3             54               53           60.6
福島(Fukushima)
 LDP                         41         50.6              42                  53.6             48              47            46.1
 DP                           46         48.2              55                  44.2             50              49            52.2
埼玉(Saitama) (elect 3)
 LDP                                      42.2              34                  35.8            32               34            40.4
 KP                                        21.0              14                  24.7            22               20            20.9
 DP                                        16.8              28                  17.0            19               18            11.6
 JCP                                       12.9              16                  15.2            17               17            20.9
千葉(Chiba) (elect 3)
 LDP                                      39.9              30                  42.7            30               24            25.8
 LDP                                      19.4              16                  15.0            17               33            24.9
 DP                                        13.4              12                  16.2            16               19            21.7
 DP                                        12.0              22                    9.1            15                 5              9.9
 JCP                                       10.1                7                  12.8            14               11            14.7
東京(Tokyo) (elect 6)
 LDP                        20          19.1             17                   21.1            15               22            23.5    
 LDP                         7            8.4              13                     5.9              6                 6              3.6
 DP                           7            5.4                6                     9.2              7                 7            11.0
 DP                         18          33.3              25                   28.0            31               30            15.3
 KP                           9          11.3              10                     8.9            14               16            11.3
 JCP                        14          12.6              14                   12.6            15               13            14.0
 ORA                         4            3.8               9                      4.3             5                  6              8.0
神奈川(Kanagawa) (elect 4)
 LDP                                     42.8             30                    38.6            31               34            32.6
 DP                                      10.0               9                     13.3            12                7              7.7
 DP                                      10.4               6                      8.2             12               13            14.5
 KP                                      15.3             13                     12.7            18               15            16.5
 JCP                                       9.1             10                     11.4            12                7             14.4
 Ind(LDP)                               6.1               8                      6.0              8               11              6.2
 ORA                                      3.3                                       4.1              5                 6              4.0
山梨(Yamanashi)
 LDP                       39         45.1             45                    41.6            41               37             38.5
 DP                         38         40.8             41                    40.3            42               43             48.5
 DP rebel                  9          11.3            12                     17.4           14                16             11.4
新潟(Niigata)
 LDP                                    49.7             38                    53.1           47                45             52.2
 Ind(PLP)                             47.9             45                    45.2           49                52             42.8
長野(Nagano)
 LDP                      39          56.6             43                    51.4            53               45             41.6
 DP                        50          42.3             52                    47.1            45               50             56.4
愛知(Aichi) (elect 4)
 LDP                                    45.1             38                    45.5            33               31             34.2
 DP                                      19.2             13                    12.9            20               13               9.2
 DP                                       9.6               8                      6.9             13               17             20.9
 KP                                      12.4             15                    17.3            15               19             12.7
 JCP                                      9.0               7                      7.6             12                 5             12.7
 SDP                                     2.0                                       3.4               3                 4
 ORA                                     0.6               4                      2.0               1                 4              4.7
三重(Mie)
 LDP                      41         49.7               45                  57.6             47               48             57.3
 DP                        44         48.3               55                  37.9             50               46             41.8
滋賀(Shiga)
 LDP                      47         53.9               48                  53.9             50               50             52.3
 DP                        41         43.5               35                  44.5             46               37             44.5
大阪(Osaka) (elect 4)
 LDP                                   29.8              25                   29.8             22               24             23.5
 DP                                      7.4                 6                  10.0               9                 8               9.4
 KP                                     15.6              15                   14.1             17              14              12.7
 JCP                                    11.7               9                     9.0              14              16              13.2
 ORA                                  18.6              17                   23.4             20               24              29.6
 ORA                                   13.0             10                     9.9             15               11                9.1
兵庫(Hyōgo) (elect 3)
 LDP                                   39.0             40                   38.9             28               35              33.1
 DP                                     15.0             13                   15.1             17               15              16.7
 KP                                     18.1             20                   14.8             20               17              14.5
 JCP                                     8.0               9                      9.6             11                 9              12.0
 ORA                                  18.2              17                   18.9             21               20              21.5
愛媛(Ehime)            
 LDP                    45           55.9             50                   55.4             53               41              50.5
 Ind(DP)              46           43.5             46                   43.3             46               55              48.1
大分(Ōita)
 LDP                   44            50.0             48                   52.8             47               48              47.0
 DP                     42            48.0??         44                   44.6             47               51              50.9
沖縄(Okinawa)
 LDP                                   43.3                                    35.9             42               38              36.8
 Ind(AO)                             54.1                                    61.6             54               57              60.7

[jaichind]

A lot of these media survey polls plus the "top secret" LDP polls I think might be made up or just derivatives from other polls done.  Looking at these numbers it seems that there are a lot a bias for name recognition and the bandwagon effect especially in non-competitive seats.  Even in competitive seats it seems that there are polls which greatly exaggerate the size gap.  In competitive seats one can just throw out large lead polls.

If for every prefecture, one throws out the two most extreme polls in either direction and then take the average, one gets a district projection count similar to my: LDP 39 Ind(LDP) 0 KP 7 DP 19 ORA 2 JCP 3 Ind(opposition) 3.  We match seat by seat a well with the exception of 青森(Aomori) where this media poll-of-poll yields a DP victory, 新潟(Niigata) where poll-of-poll project a LDP victory, 三重(Mie) where the media poll-of-poll yields a LDP victory, and 大分(Ōita) where the media poll-of-polls yields a LDP victory.  I have it exactly the opposite.  Of course in all three cases the poll-of-polls averages for both were very close so it really could go either way.  Also in 大阪(Osaka) the media poll-of-polls very narrowly has JCP beating out ORA for the 4th seat which matches myself but it is gap is tiny.  Same with 山梨(Yamanashi) where the media poll-of-poll yield a DP victory which matches that of my projection but the margin is tiny.

If we then take the consensus PR seat shart (which greatly deviates from my projection) of LDP 18 KP 7 ORA  4 DP 11 SDP 1 JCP 7.  One gets

1- seats LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                39                     57
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  2                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This media raw poll-of-polls approach gives us LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167 which is 5 more than the 2/3 majority.

Raw data of the poll-of-polls averages
北海道(Hokkaido)  (elect 3) (LDP vote share behind DP which is unexpected)
 LDP             22.8
 LDP             15.1
 DP               20.7
 DP              21.6
 JCP             10.1
青森(Aomori) (very close)
 LDP            46.3
 DP              47.7
岩手(Iwate) (larger than expected defeat for LDP)
 LDP            39.0
 Ind(PLP)     49.9
宮城(Miyagi)
 LDP            46.0
 DP              50.4
秋田(Akita)  (I am cheating on this one, 朝日(Asahi) did not poll here so I only threw out one poll)
 LDP            53.9
 DP              43.9
山形(Yamagata) (what a blowout of LDP, unexpected)
 LDP            40.8
 Ind(DP)      54.9
福島(Fukushima)
 LDP            46.5
 DP              49.1
埼玉(Saitama) (elect 3)
 LDP            36.1
 DP              21.1
 KP              17.7
 JCP             15.5
千葉(Chiba) (elect 3) (unexpected LDP landslide)
 LDP             30.7
 LDP             22.5
 DP               18.2
 DP                 9.8
 JCP              13.1
東京(Tokyo) (elect 6)  (unexpected weak performance by LDP here, Renho bandwagon effect?)
 LDP             19.9
 LDP               6.2
 DP                 7.5
 DP               25.5              
 KP               12.3
 JCP              13.9
 ORA               5.4
神奈川(Kanagawa) (elect 4) (LDP unexpectedly and unreasonably strong here)
 LDP             35.6
 DP               11.1
 DP                9.2
 KP               14.8
 JCP              10.6
 Ind(LDP)       7.0
 ORA              4.1
山梨(Yamanashi) (DP rebel doing unusually well and must be eating into LDP votes too)
 LDP             39.9
 DP               40.9
 DP rebel      13.7
新潟(Niigata) (ultra close)
 LDP             48.7
 Ind(PLP)      48.5
長野(Nagano)
 LDP             46.3
 DP               48.8
愛知(Aichi) (elect 4)  (LDP a good deal stronger relative to DP than expected)
 LDP              37.6
 DP               15.4
 DP               12.9
 KP               14.4
 JCP               2.4
三重(Mie)
 LDP             48.6
 DP               46.0
滋賀(Shiga) (ORA vote seems to be going to LDP)
 LDP             51.4
 DP               42.1
大阪(Osaka) (elect 4) (very close between JCP and ORA's second and weaker candidate)
 LDP             25.1
 DP                8.6
 KP              14.7
 JCP             11.3
 ORA            22.5
 ORA            11.0
兵庫(Hyōgo) (elect 3)
 LDP             32.2
 DP               15.5
 KP               17.5
 JCP               9.4
 ORA            17.5
愛媛(Ehime) (a big surprise that this is this close, should be LDP landslide)
 LDP             50.9
 Ind(DP)       45.9
大分(Ōita)
 LDP             47.2
 DP               46.4
沖縄(Okinawa)   (I am cheating on this one, 朝日(Asahi) did not poll here so I only threw out one poll)
 LDP             38.2
 Ind(AO)       58.3

[jaichind]

Realpolitics Japan shows various media agency's assessments of 1- seat districts and how their assessments has changed over the last couple of weeks. 



読売新聞(Yomiuri) LDP 16 Tossup 13 Opposition 3 -> LDP 17 Tossup 12 Opposition 3
日経新聞(Nikkei)  LDP 16 Tossup 14 Opposition 2 -> LDP 19 Tossup 11 Opposition 2
朝日 (Asahi) LDP 20 Tossup 4 Opposition 8  ->  LDP 20 Tossup 5 Opposition 7
産経新聞 (Sankei) LDP 22 Tossup 2 Opposition 8 -> LDP 20 Tossup 8 Opposition 4
共同通信社 (Kyodo) LDP 22 Opposition 10 -> LDP 22 Tossup 8 Opposition 2

All of them show a shift toward LDP.  All of them seems to have detected a swing toward LDP from ORA and anti-JCP DP voters toward LDP provoked by the JCP MP statement about the military budget being a "budget to murder people."  My own model also have been adjusted for greater voting by ORA for LDP where ORA is not running.  My projection of 1- district has gone from 21-11 from a couple of weeks to 22-10.   Using the category of LDP-Tossup-Opposition right now I am at LDP 19 Tossup 9 Opposition 4.