Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

NNN poll

Abe cabinet approval   43.3/39.5



PR list vote

LDP         34.6 (-0.7)
KP            4.8 (-1.1)
ORA          1.5 (-0.8 )
PJK           0.0 (-0.1)
NPR          0.1 (+0.1)
DP          15.7 (+3.1)
SDP          1.2 (--)
PLP           0.3 (--)
JCP           5.2 (-0.2)

Mostly shows that the G7 summit boost is wearing off which is expected.

As a comparison in 2013 Upper House election the last known NNN poll and results were

2013 poll

LDP      38%  ->   result 34.6%
DPJ        7%   ->  result 13.4%
JCP        5%   ->  result   9.6%

On this basis it seems LDP-KP is on route to a PR section result of 44%-45% which is pretty close to my current baseline of LDP-KP of 44.5%.

[jaichind]

A Kyodo News survey of Upper House candidates by party found some interesting results.

On the issue of revising the Constitution under the Abe administration.  72% of LDP candidates was for such an action.  While 0% of KP candidates were for this action with, 31% against, and 69% declining to state their position.  As a party, KP has proposed "adding" new ideas and clauses to the Constitution, apparently distancing itself from Abe's position. And KP leader Natsuo Yamaguchi has said revising the country's supreme law "will not be a campaign issue" in the July election.  I guess on the whole KP is not for such an action but does not want to risk offending Abe so most of them take the approach of "no comment."  98% of DP candidate and 100% of JCP candidates are opposed to such an action.  Only 28% of ORA candidates supports revising constitution under Abe rest has no comment.   I guess they are for it as long as it is not Abe but Abe plus ORA doing it.




On the topic of Abe's recent decision to postpone again a planned consumption tax hike just 49.2 percent of possible LDP candidates and 46.2 percent of the KP candidates expressed approval, while 75.5 percent of DP candidates did so.  So the delay of consumption tax increase seems more popular with the DP base than LDP-KP base.  

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll on PR section

LDP     35 (-7)
KP         7 (+2)
ORA       7 (+2)
DP       12 (+1)
JCP        4 (-1)

Back in 2013 around the same time Yomiuri poll around the same time had

LDP      42
KP          6
JRP         5
YP          5
DPJ        9
JCP        4

On this basis LDP-KP is en route to around 43%-44% on the PR vote.  It does seem that ORA is having a surge and mostly at the expense of LDP.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll

Abe cabinet approval   42/39

PR list vote

LDP      30 (-6)
KP         5 (-2)
ORA      5 (+2)
DP       14 (+2)
JCP        6 (-2)

Same trend of LDP losing steam due to the G7 summit effect wearing off with some support going to ORA.  We are mostly headed toward the situation in March-April but with the center-left opposition more united.

Back in 2013 Mainichi poll around the same time had

LDP          37
KP             8
JRP            8
YP             8
DPJ           7
JCP           4

Which would imply that either the Mainichi pro-LDP house effect is a lot lower than 2013 or LDP-KP is in big trouble with an implied PR vote share of around 40%-41%.

The good news for LDP is that on the Masuzoe scandal 61% see it as an issue with Masuzoe as a person and 29% see it as an issue with LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Asahi  poll

Abe cabinet approval 45/36

PR list vote

LDP    38 (-1)
KP        7 (--)
ORA      4 (-2)
DP      15 (+3)
JCP      6 (-1)

Back in 2013 Asahi poll close to the election had

LDP    43
KP        8
JRP       6
YP        6
DPJ      6
JCP      6

Which would imply LDP-KP PR vote share of 42%-43% this time around.  Unlike the other polls ORA seems to be falling back.  Like all other polls it has DP rising at the expense of JCP.

Asahi historically has been anti-LDP but its polls historically tends to have the biggest pro-LDP house effect.

[jaichind]

I think overall the electorate is likely to be 55% for the ruling parties (LDP-KP) and other center-right and/or hawkish parties (including HRP) while 45% are for center-left opposition parties.   The seat distribution will really be a function of how the vote shares are distributed within these two blocs.

[jaichind]

NHK poll

Abe cabinet approval  47/34

Party support




LDP          33.8  (-4.3)
KP              3.9  (-0.8 )
ORA            0.9  (-0.3)
DP              8.6 (+0.9)
SDP            0.9 (+0.1)
PLP             0.1 (---)
JCP             3.6 (+0.4)

This is the ties worst LDP-KP performance in NHK polls since Abe came into power.  The last bottom was back in Aug 2015 at the depth of the security bill debate when LDP-KP saw similar numbers.

Historically LDP-KP PR vote share would be NHK LDP+KP plus another 2%-3% which would put it around 40%-41%.  But I do not believe this is the final NHK poll before the election.  The one right before it should see the electorate more polarized since this poll question is not the PR vote section but party support.  LDP-KP should see their support go up 2-3% in the final NHK poll or else it will be a bad election night for LDP-KP.

One way or another this poll confirms that LDP-KP is falling right before the election and peaked too soon back in May during the G7 summit success.  

[jaichind]

Local 福島(Fukushima) poll has Abe cabinet approval at 34.6/47.2.  Hard to see how LDP wins here given these numbers. 

[jaichind]

Niconico (ニコニコ) which is a Japanese video sharing website came out with their projections for the Upper House elections.  They seems to take surveys of their users and were pretty accurate in 2013 and 2014 elections.  They came out with


 
                District         PR         Total
LDP            39              18          57
KP                7                7          14
ORA             4                4            8
DP             15               10         25
PLP             2                 1            3
SDP            0                  1           1
JCP             3                 7          10
AO              1                 0           1
Pro-DP Ind   2                 0           2

I allocated their 5 independent winners to the right camps  1 AO in 沖縄(Okinawa), 1 DP in 山形(Yamagata) and 2 PLP in 岩手(Iwate) and 新潟(Niigata)) and 2 pro-DP independent. 

Their district projections pretty much match the Japanese political discussion boards with the exception of 愛知(Aichi) where they expect JCP to win the 4th seat as opposed to DP.  This exception is out of the mainstream and I consider unlikely to take place.

Overall this projection seems pretty mainstream.  I has LDP-KP PR vote share around 49% but only allocates 4 PR seats to ORA which implies that ORA only gets around 8%.  In that sense this projection is not a wild projection, it just assumes a lot of ORA votes tactically vote for LDP in the PR section which is completely plausible.  A surprise is that it expect PLP to win a PR seat which most people, including me, think is impossible especially with anti-military expansion VPA running separately and splitting the PLP vote.

[jaichind]

Japan Agriculture News had a poll of farmers.



It found Abe cabinet approval at 39/59 which is almost certainly due to the pro-TPP of the Abe Cabinet.

In terms of PR vote it had

LDP        41
DP          17
JCP          9

It seems LDP support among farmers did not really fall that much despite the lower approval rating of Abe Cabinet but DP and JCP support has gone up, most likely in Northern prefectures where the anti-TPP sentiment is stronger.  DP support closing on DPJ levels of support back in 2007 and 2010 Upper House elections while JCP support among farmers seems unprecedented at 9%. 

[jaichind]

Gendai or Modern magazine claimed that it secured an internal DP document which asses the chances of DP or de facto DP independents.   Not sure if this is a true leak or a planned leak.  It rates each candidate based on support among non-aligned voters as well as name recognition relative to their main opponent.  It comes up with a grade rating from A+ to C- where B is tossup.



The report does contain some surprises

For 北海道(Hokkaido) the report has both DP candidates at A- implying that DP will capture 2 out of 3 seats over the 2 LDP and 1 JCP candidate.   This seems like a stretch given the bigger LDP-KP vote bloc and the fact that there are 3 opposition candidates.  For this to take place there are several conditions that must be met

1) NDP support for LDP ends up not delivering that many votes that LDP was not going to win already.
2) JCP tactical voting for the weaker of the DP candidate
3) DP splits its votes evenly between its two candidates
4) pro-LDP independent and PJK together capture a fairly large vote share (something on the order of 5%-7%) from the LDP vote bloc
5) LDP does not split its votes evenly between its two candidates.

All in all possible but not likely.

青森(Aomori) at B+ which means DP is favored.  Aomori is fairly strong LDP for a Northern prefecture.  I guess perhaps anti-TPP sentiment could produce a DP upset.

秋田(Akita) at C+ seems surprising given that Aomori is at B+.  The general view is that Akita is a much more likely candidate for DP to pull off an upset in the North given the anti-TPP sentiments.  From a PVI point of view LDP is much weaker in Akita than Aomori but DP seems to feel even with an ex-DPJ MP running its chances are low.  This assessment might speak to the personal strength of the LDP incumbent.

宮城(Miyagi) and 山形(Yamagata) at A+ while 福島(Fukushima) at B.  This seems to go against conventional wisdom that DP is very favored in Fukushima but it is neck-to-neck in Miyagi and Yamagata.  DP projection has it other way around.

In 千葉(Chiba) DP rates it two candidate B+ and B.  This seems optimistic.  With ORA not running here, PJK not expected to get that many votes, and JCP also running it seems very unlikely that DP can win 2 out of 3 seats in a prefecture that is trending LDP anyway.  The second DP candidate is an ex-YP incumbent.  DP's analysis stem from that he can bring in a lot of personal and ex-YP vote plus a maldistribution of the LDP vote between its two candidates can give it a victory.  I guess all this is possible but very unlikely.  

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) DP rates its two candidates fairly low at B and B-.  They must feel that ORA and JCP are running strong here in addition to LDP-KP which is trying to capture 3 out of 4 seats.  If this projection is true then DP for sure made a mistake nominating 2 candidates instead of 1 since this projection senses the risk that LDP-KP will win 3 out of 4 seats and JCP beat out DP for the 4th and last seat leaving DP with nothing.

山梨(Yamanashi) rated at A-. This seems optimistic.  Before an ex-DPJ turned YP MP entered the race running an independent the race was seen as neck-to-neck.  With the DP rebel taking a bloc of the vote the race is seem to be at best neck-to-neck/lean LDP.  But I guess DP projects that the DP rebel will not have that much of net affect and DP will win this seat.

In 東京(Tokyo) DP projection seems pretty mainstream that Renho is for sure a winner and that a second DP candidate is in a 3 way tie (rated B) with LDP and ORA for the last 2 seats.

長野(Nagano) and 三重(Mie) are rated B+ and B which seems fairly low given the general consensus that DP is in a strong position here after adding the JCP vote to the DP vote bloc.  In Nagano JCP is very strong and there could be issues for the local JCP to accept supporting DP.  In Mie the local DP is fairly anti-JCP.  These ratings might reflect that at the grassroots level DP-JCP collaboration not working as well.

滋賀(Shiga) rated a B- when the consensus seems to be that DP should have at least a 50/50 shot at winning.  Shiga is in Kinki so perhaps the DP view is that the larger ORA bloc here is going to LDP wholesale making it harder for DP to win.

岐阜(Gifu) rated B-.  The general view is that DP will keep this close but in the end does not have a realistic shot at winning.  This prefecture has been trending DPJ/DP for a while.  On the other hand the 2014 PFG vote was pretty strong here and it will swing to LDP to beat back DP.  This rating seems to indicate that if DP has a good night DP can pull off an upset.

The two candidates in 愛知(Aichi) are rated A+ and B.  The B rating for the second candidate seems odd given that DP is on track to win both seats.  There has been talk of a JCP surge in Aichi so perhaps DP's view is that JCP could capture the 4th and final seat from DP.

大阪(Osaka)  rated at B+. This is a surprise. It is expected that LDP and KP will win 1 seat each in Osaka easy while ORA will capture at least one with ORA vs JCP for the 4th and last seat.  DP's role here is more about how much DP tactical voting will take place to support JCP against ORA.  But this projection seems to project that DP has a solid shot if winning which seems unlikely.  This part of the report could be there to prevent a total collapse of the DP in Osaka

兵庫(Hyōgo) rated at B+.  This is optimistic but plausible.  There might be JCP tactical voting for DP for DP to beat out KP for the 3rd and last seat after LDP and ORA will win one each.

大分(Ōita) rated at B.  This seems is a bit optimistic as the general view is that this is neck-to-neck with LDP with a slight advantage.  Still if the election turns DP's way overall DP has a solid shot at  Ōita.  

奈良(Nara) and 愛媛(Ehime) both at B- is interesting.  I give DP very low chances of winning in both areas but this rating does fit the recent narrative that LDP is worried about these two districts.  In Nara it is about the fear that ORA will capture a good bloc of LDP votes and in Ehime the pro-DP ex-MP has a lot of personal support and could pull a surprise over LDP.

[jaichind]

ANN poll has Abe Cabinet approval at 44.3%



PR vote share at

LDP          32.6
KP              6.4
ORA           2.0
NPR            0.1
PJK             0.0
DP            13.4
PLP            0.4
SDP           1.1
JCP            6.4

Back in 2013 ANN around the same time before the election had

LDP         42.8
KP            4.1
JRP           4.3
YP            4.7
DPJ        10.6
PLP          0.6
SDP         1.0
JCP          5.5

Using the 2013 calibration LDP is on course to get around 41%-42% of the vote on the PR section

[jaichind]

A Japanese food court ad that mimics the various election posters



One section choice is "Liberal Wine Drinking Party" (to mimic LDP) another is "Fresh seafood Association" (to mimic ORA)


What real election posters look like (in this case in Tokyo.)

[jaichind]

Official list of candidates by party is out



The list of parties that will run on PR by NHK by most likely vote share ranking

LDP
DP
KP
JCP
ORA
SDP
PLP
PJK
HRP
VPA (Voice of Public Anger which is an anti-military anti-constitutional change bloc)
NPB (Non Party Bloc which is an e-democracy micro party)

In terms of district seats the number of candidates by party are

LDP   48
DP     33
KP       7
JCP    14
ORA   10
SDP     4
PJK    10
NPR     1  (in Tokyo)
TCJ      1 (in Aichi in alliance with ORA)
HRP   45 (HRP will run a candidate in every election district)
VPA    1  (in Tokyo)
NPB    4
Misc    4
Ind    37 (includes 2 LDP rebels, 2 DP rebels, 16 Opposition Grand Alliance candidates (2 of them are PLP), 1 AO, 2 ex-DPJ MPs, rest center-left independent), 1 ex-YP, 1 PJK rebel), 2 center-left candidates in Tokyo which are likely to take DP votes, 2 extreme left candidates in Tokyo which are likely to take JCP votes)

There seems to be no coordination between ORA and PJK. It seems PJK is running everywhere ORA is running with the de facto effect of lowering ORA chances.  Not clear why these two natural allies are not coordinating their efforts.

Tokyo will be a free for all.  The second LDP candidate is weak which gives DP and ORA their chance.  PJK, NPR, and NW (Restoration Political Party - New Wind which is an extreme right monarchist party) will drain ORA votes while SDP and other center-left candidates will take votes from DP.  A couple of extreme left candidates as well as VPA will take votes from JCP although JCP is pretty safe to win a seat in Tokyo.  How much votes these minor parties take will determine which two of DP, LDP, and ORA will win the 5th and 6th seat.

[jaichind]

It seems LDP is exsuding some support to Komeito : what would be the reasons for that ?

Not really.  It is the polls that are skewed and need unskewing.  KP is based on the  Buddhist  movement Soka Gakkai.  Historically and even today Soka Gakkai is not seen as part of the mainstream and many view it as a cult.  KP during the 1960s to 1990s had an anti-LDP orientation and was part of many opposition efforts to topple LDP.  The 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the Aum Shinrikyo cult was a game changer.  Soka Gakkai became fearful that it will be put in the cult watchlist and perhaps disbanded.  The KP goal after that was to make sure that Soka Gakkai is seen as part of the mainstream.  Alliance with LDP and being part of the establishment was part of that strategy.   Of course many in Japan still see  Soka Gakkai as out of the mainstream.  As a result many KP supporters (which is around 13%-15% of the electorate) would say they support LDP when polled which is somewhat true since KP is allied with LDP. As a result KP never polls above 5%-6% and LDP support in polls is artificially inflated.  This is why when I read Japanese polls I tend to read LDP+KP as representing LDP-KP support instead of trying to get a breakdown.  KP always gets between 13%-15%, rest is LDP in any assessment of LDP-KP overall vote share.

[jaichind]

It might be useful to talk a bit about PR nomination strategy by different parties.  The way the Upper House PR vote worked has changed over the years.  Originally it was a de facto 48 member all Japan district.  Meaning each party can nominate candidates and independents can run too.  Voters vote for one of the candidates and the top 48 are elected.  Celebrity independents often won this way plus the parties had to be careful about over-nominating or else their vote would be split.  This system was favorable to LDP since LDP was made up of many factions each with its own support base.  This system allows each factional base to turn out its voters and then also vote LDP in the district vote.

After 1998 this system was changed to be a Party PR system.  So independents were out.  Each party would nominate its candidates, a voter could vote for the party or a candidate which accrue to the party itself.  Based on the total votes a party gets seats are allocated by party.  Distribution within the party to determine who gets elected based on the seats each party is awarded  is based on how many personal votes each candidate gets.  Of course the purpose of the individual candidates is to turn out marginal voters to vote for a certain candidate which would then accrue to the party.

It is actually expensive for a party to nominate a candidate.  For each candidate a party nominates it cost around $60,000 to be paid to the Japan election commission.  This time around LDP is pretty conservative in nominating only 25 candidates.  LDP seems to feel that the personal pull of its candidates is not great and that nominating more candidates is not worth the ROI.  The JCP nominated a record 42 candidates (JCP is very fairly rich based on the revenue it makes from the JCP party newspaper).  This is because JCP withdrew from all 32 1- member districts.  JCP want each prefecture's JCP supporters to feel there is some JCP candidate from their region to vote for since many cannot vote JCP given JCP is not running a candidate in the single member districts.  JCP nominated candidates from pretty much all prefectures on the list so the JCP voter in each prefecture gets to vote for a JCP candidate from his/her prefecture.  There is no issue of over-nomination since the number of seats for JCP is determined by the total votes accrued.  The only cost is $$$ which JCP seems to want to spend.  ORA nominated a lot of PR candidates (18) given its size.  This is because ORA is trying to expand outside of Osaka and one way is to nominate candidates (many are ex-PFG, ex-DPJ, ex-YP politicians) from different regions  to try to turn out marginal voters for ORA based on their residual personal appeal.  Again ORA decided to burn a lot of cash for this just like JCP.

[jaichind]

FNN/Sankei poll

Party support

LDP      37.7(-3.4)
KP          4.6(+0.6)
ORA        4.3(+1.2)
DP          8.3(+0.4)
JCP         5.7(+1.9)

Back in 2014 the last pre-election poll Sankei had LDP-KP at 45.7.

Calibrating for that result this poll seems to imply LDP-KP PR vote share of around 43%-44%. 

The main cavet is that DP support for this poll seems very low.  On the other hand this is support (which DP tends to poll on the boundary of double digits) and not PR vote which DP tends to be around 15%

[jaichind]

Abe just claimed in an interview that LDP is unlikely to capture a overall majority in the Upper House as a result of this election.  No party has had a majority by itself in the Upper House since 1989 when LDP lost its majority.  This is mainly because no party (LDP or DPJ) managed to have 2 good Upper House election in a row in the period after 1989.

LDP has 65 seats which are not up for reelection.  There are 242 members of the Upper House If LDP were to not able to win a majority as Abe claimed in the Upper House then this election LDP will have to win less than 57.  My current projection for LDP (which is among the most pessimistic for LDP since I have LDP-KP at 44% PR vote as my baseline) is 53 seats.  If you look at political commentators and political discussion boards the medium projection they have is for LDP to win around 58-60 seats which would give it a majority.  More likely or not Abe is trying to lower expectations especially the more pessimistic projections out there, including myself, has LDP below 57 seats.

[jaichind]

Nikkan Gendai continue with their very LDP pessimistic projection



                District      PR       Total
LDP            36           15         51
KP               6             7          13
ORA            3             3            6
DP             19           11          30
PLP             2              1           3
SDP            0              1           1
JCP             5              8         13
AO              1             0           1
pro-DP Ind  1              0          1

I allocated the 5 independent winners with their de facto parties. 1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO, and one pro-DP independent. 

These results would be a significant setback for LDP and ORA.  It would have a surge for JCP and VPA.  JCP would be 14%-15% under this estimate on the PR section which would be a massive surge.  LDP-KP will be around 44.5% which is roughly in line with my estimates.  But ORA would come in at a bit more than 6% which would mean disaster in the district races where there are less ORA voters to vote for LDP where ORA is not running.  In that sense the PR and district results are consistent.  My main problem is that It has PLP around 2% and VPA around 4% on the PR which I find unlikely as PLP and VPA would most likely rob each other of votes. 

[jaichind]

A survey of the candidates by party on various positions on key topics produced the chart below.

The topics are

Abenomics
New Security Law
Nuclear Power
Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution
Abe Cabinet in charge of Constitution change



For Abenomics obviously LDP-KP very pro, NPR, ORA, and NBP seems to back Abenomics with ORA backed TCJ somewhat against.  Here the DPJ background of TCJ despite its center-right orientation does come out.  DP, SDP, PLP and JCP increasing against in that order.  Makes sense.

For New Security Law obviously LDP-KP are for since their are the ones who pushed it through.  NPR and NPB also seems to be for while ORA is somewhat for with TCJ neutral.  DP, PLP, SDP and JCP  increasing against in that order.

For nuclear power LDP-KP along with NPB are alone in being for.  DP and ORA somewhat against and NPR, TCJ,  PLP, SDP, and JCP increasing against in that order.

Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution.  LDP and NPB are for with ORA and TCJ somewhat for.  KP is neutral (although deep down they are against, most likely many take the "no opinion" option as not to offend their LDP allies), NPR somewhat against, and DP, PLP, SDP and JCP  increasing against in that order.

As for Abe Cabinet in charge of Constitution change  it is pretty much the same as Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution with TCJ taking a much more negative position.

Not sure why they did not include HRP in this survey.  If they did they will find that HRP is the most hawkish party.  It seems despite the image ORA projects its candidates are a good more dovish than LDP.  PLP is clearly pushing itself as a Leftist party on economic and national security policy issues trying to move in the SDP niche.  Micro party NPB seems to be a LDP-lite hawk party.   Other than LDP-KP all opposition parties seems to be anti-nuclear.  Overall 2016 ORA is only somewhat more hawkish and more pro-LDP than 2014 JIP.  It seems that ORA's plan is still try to capture most of the 2014 JIP vote while hoping to cash in on disillusioned center-right LDP voters.  KP is with LDP on economic issues but part ways with LDP on Constitutional issues.   This seem to paint a picture that even after the election and the ruling parties (LDP-KP) plus ORA plus a bunch of ex-YP and PJK MPs get a 2/3 majority in the Upper House it seems hard for Abe to push through any real constitutional change.  To get KP and the volatile Hashimoto controlled ORA to all on the same page at the same time would be hard.  

Of course this chart tells you one thing.  If you want to vote anti-Abe the most anti-Abe party is JCP.  Given that anti-Abe sentiment is risen with his longer incumbency the rise of JCP is not hard to explain.

[jaichind]

Various news agencies coming out with their projections (most of it for 1- member seats)

産経新聞 (Sankei) projects out of the 32 1- member districts it is LDP 22 Opposition 8 with 2 Tossup (青森   (Aomori) !! and 山梨(Yamanashi))   Aomori being tossup is a big surprise although the DP leaked internal assessments was also pretty positive on Aomori.  But LDP winning around 22-24 1- member seats seems pretty much in line with my projections but more negative than conventional wisdom.

日経新聞(Nikkei) is more guarded in their assessment.   They have out of the 32 1- member seats LDP ahead in 16, LDP-opposition neck-to-neck 14 and opposition ahead in 2.  This seems a bit negative for LDP.  By my count LDP is a lock in at least 17 seats and significantly ahead in 4 more.  Nikkei has LDP ahead in 16 only seems pretty negative for LDP.  Nikkei has Abe cabinet approval at 46.  Party support is LDP 43 KP 6 ORA 4 DP 16 JCP 6.  Given these levels of support I am surprised at the fairly negative projection for LDP.  I guess Nikkei is filtering out its pro-LDP house effects.

毎日新聞(Mainichi) has the most pro-LDP assessment for 1- seat districts.  It has LDP ahead in 25, 4 neck-to-neck, and  opposition ahead in 3  (宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), 沖縄(Okinawa)).  What is surprising here is they have 岩手(Iwate) as neck-to-neck.  This seems very unlikely.  They must be picking up an anti-Ozawa wave there or more likely they are overpredicted the demise of Ozawa in Iwate.   In more positive news for DP they project that DP could capture 2 seats in 北海道(Hokkaido) (must be JCP tactical voting plus LDP rebel taking a large bloc of votes) but is negative on DP winning 2 seats in Tokyo (in which case ORA and LDP win the last 2 seats).  The same survey has Abe Cabinet approval at 42/35.  Party support at LDP 33 KP 5 ORA 4 DP 13 JCP 6.  Calibrating with how Manichi polls performed in 2013 this puts LDP-KP at 42%-43% which seems at conflict with their positive projection for LDP.  Manichi projects at least 70 seats for LDP-KP.

読売新聞(Yomiuri) does not reveal much.  The produced a chart with a spectrum of possibilities  They said that undecided where high (over 30%) and that LDP is on the boundary of 57 seats but will most likely fall short where it would regain single party majority in the Upper House.  Eyeballing it it seems the medium case is LDP with 55 seats and KP with 12 seats. It is in the mainstream but a bit more pessimistic than the conventional wisdom.  It has LDP with a lock in 16 out of the 32 single member districts but does not say about on the rest which I assume most is neck-to-neck as if LDP only wins 16 out of 32 single member seats there is no way it gets to 55 seats.  Just like Nikkei this projection seems fairly negative but the final projection of 68 seats for LDP-KP seems to indicate that LDP will win a good part of the remaining non-LDP dominate single member districts.  It does say that the opposition is very competitive in the North which speaks to the blowback on LDP due to TPP.  Its medium case for DP seems to be around 30, for JCP 11, and ORA 8.  That leaves 4 of which at least 3 or not all 4 are pro-DP independents (like AO and PLP candidates running as independents).  This is a pretty negative projection for LDP all in all.

 

[jaichind]

I saw a funny set of pictures in a Japanese election discussion board.  

This is a picture from a Young LDP collegiate conference to support the LDP in the upcoming election

 

This is a picture from a similar conference for DP.



The difference is clear.  It is dress of course but there is also a gender gap.   Given my dress habits even though I am clearly on the Far Right I would rather attend the DP conference.

[jaichind]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) which has the most pro-LDP projection so far had a poll for Tokyo where it found that Renho of DP is first, then LDP#1, JCP and then KP.  It finds that DP#2 LDP#2 and ORA in a three way tie.  Given that Manichi has the most pro-LDP projections so far this poll seems pretty positive for DP.  The only negative news is that Renho is running first which points to a maldistribution of the DP vote between its two candidate and that Renho could be taking to much of the DP vote and not leaving enough for the DP#2 candidate to make it into the top six.   

[jaichind]

共同通信社 (Kyodo) projection is that LDP close to 60 seats and LDP-KP should cross 70 seats.  Given that KP should be 13-14 seats it seems to put LDP around 57 seats or so.   It has LDP ahead in 22 out of 32 single member seats and either opposition lead or neck-to-neck in the remaining 10.  All in all pretty close to Mainichi projections which is among the more optimistic media projections for LDP.

[jaichind]

朝日 (Asahi) projections



                 District        PR           Total
LDP              38           19            57
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                19           11           30
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 2            6              8
AO                 1            0               1
Pro-DP Ind     3            0               3

All things equal I do not buy this poll.  I do not feel the PR vote and district vote results are consistent.  It seems to project ORA underperforming on the PR vote section and falling to around 8% losing votes to LDP.  For LDP-KP the PR vote seems to imply a vote share around 51%-52% on the PR.  Even with ORA falling to 8% on the PR section I find it hard to believe that LDP-KP will win 51%-52% of the PR vote.  And if LDP-KP is at 51%-52% then LDP should crush DP in the district vote at a much higher level then this projection indicates.  

This projection looks very much in line with the Kyodo and Mainichi in which case I suspect those projections would contains the same flaws, in my view.