Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

In the old DPJ stronghold of 愛知 (Aichi) the DPJ is making a comeback.  So far DPJ JIP won 6 of the 14 seats called with one left to call which could very well go to DPJ.

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  264
DPJ    53
JIP     28
KP      29
PFG     2
JCP    15
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  271
DPJ    59
JIP     30
KP      30
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

東海 PR region tends to be the bellweather region as far as PR votes are concerned.

With 10% of the vote in it is

LDP   35.5%
DPJ    21.9%
JIP     14.2%
KP     14.0%
JCP      8.8%
PFG     2.4%
PLP     1.4%
SDP     1.4%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 49.5%

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  274
DPJ    60
JIP     33
KP      31
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 15% of the vote in it is

LDP   35.8%
DPJ    22.3%
JIP     14.5%
KP     12.8%
JCP      9.0%
PFG     2.3%
PLP     1.4%
SDP     1.3%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 48.6%

[jaichind]

NHK count

LDP  275
DPJ    61
JIP     35
KP      31
PFG     2
JCP    17
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looking at PR vote of Hokkaido 北海道 it is clear that the DPJ NPD alliance did not work. 

With 55% of the vote in it is

LDP   31.7%
DPJ    28.9%
KP     12.8%
JCP    11.2%
JIP      8.7%

LDP-KP is at 44.5% which is a 7% positive swing from 2012.  It is pretty clear most of that came from NPD.  This is the main reason that DPJ did not achieve a victory in Hokkaido this time despite a nominal alliance with NPD.

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 24% of the vote in it is

LDP   34.7%
DPJ    22.0%
JIP     15.3%
KP     12.9%
JCP      9.2%
PFG     2.4%
PLP     1.5%
SDP     1.5%
HRP     0.6%

LDP+KP s far is 47.6%

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  283
DPJ    66
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    19
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP-KP will end up with around 325 which is the same as 2012.  So we have a $600 million election to get the exact same result as 2012.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  284
DPJ    68
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    19
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  288
DPJ    69
JIP     37
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    20
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looking at the PR vote, the biggest swing toward LDP-KP was in Tokyo.  I guess YP votes in Tokyo went mostly to LDP.  That goes to explain why LDP/KP won in Tokyo big in FPTP.

[jaichind]

東海 PR region 

With 53% of the vote in it is

LDP   33.5%
DPJ    23.6%
JIP     14.3%
KP     12.9%
JCP      9.6%
PFG     2.3%
PLP     1.8%
SDP     1.3%
HRP     0.5%

LDP+KP s far is 46.4%. 

This implies that LDP+KP will be around 48% in Japan overall.

[jaichind]

NHK pretty much called all the FPTP seats

LDP    221
DPJ      39
JIP       11
KP         9
PFG       2
JCP       1
Ind       9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Asahi pretty much called all 295 FPTP seats as well.  Their calls matches NHK except for Tokyo 21st.  NHK has DPJ winning and Asahi has LDP winning.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  289
DPJ    72
JIP     38
KP      33
PFG     2
JCP    20
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.
 

Yep, mentioned that earlier.  This seems to be the death of personality based parties.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  289
DPJ    72
JIP     38
KP      34
PFG     2
JCP    21
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Looks like LDP-KP PR will be more like 47.5% if not 47%.

[jaichind]

Ashai count

LDP  290
DPJ    72
JIP     39
KP      34
PFG     2
JCP    21
PLP     2
SDP    2
Ind     9 (6 pro-LDP, 3 pro-DPJ)

[jaichind]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?

Low turnout.

[jaichind]

I will post a more detailed comparison of my predictions and what actually took place.  This is my initial observations on the dynamics of the LDP-KP victory

1) The LDP-KP PR surge is mostly explained by a significant part of the YP vote going to LDP.  On a regional basis it is clear that the LDP-PR swing is very strongly correlated with the YP PR vote of 2012.
2) The YP vote share move toward the LDP has implications for the FPTP seats as the same YP support base that went to LDP for PR also moved to support LDP-KP in FPTP seats.  Since YP backed JRP in Osaka in 2012, the shift in the YP vote mostly explained why some JIP incumbents were defeated.
3) JCP PR did very well because of low turnout.
4) JIP PR actually pretty well considering everything while DPJ in view under-performed relative to its potential.  It is clear that memories of the 2009-12 DPJ government fiasco will take time to heal.
5) In addition for some of the YP vote base help in the LDP-KP landslide in FPTP, it seems that DPJ and JIP did not effectively transfer votes to each other.   Looking at my predictions, they ended up being right if the DPJ or JIP predicted victory was based on innate strength of said party at the district but ended up being wrong if it was dependent on vote transfers from the other party.   It seems if DPJ is running then many of the JIP supporters voted LDP instead of DPJ.  Likewise if JIP is running then many of the DPJ SDP and PLP voters vote for JCP instead of backing JIP.
6) JCP ran very strong at the district level and whereas I thought non-JCP opposition parties forming tactical alliances to beat LDP 1-on-1 would provoke JCP anti-LDP tactical voting, the opposite seems to have taken place.  Not trusting DPJ or LDP, many anti-LDP voters ended voting JCP which in turn help LDP sweep all the seats I labeled as tossups.  I guess DPJ and JIP will have to build up a track record to gain that anti-LDP vote bloc trust.
7) PFG all things equal did not take votes from LDP and mostly hurt DPJ and/or JIP more which was a surprise.
 

[jaichind]

To understand the swing of 7.37% in the PR blocs toward LDP+KP we should compare the swings by region and look at the YP PR vote in 2012

               2012          2012       2014        Swing
                   YP          LDP-KP     LDP-KP
北海道         5.94%   37.48%   42.09%   4.61%
東北            7.06%   37.73%   44.16%   6.43%
北関東       12.18%   40.83%   49.30%   8.47%
南関東       12.45%   37.05%   46.77%   9.72%
東京          11.67%   35.01%   44.21%   9.20%
北陸信越      7.51%   40.07%   45.57%   5.50%
東海            9.03%   38.49%   45.77%   7.28%
近畿            6.52%   36.52%   43.55%   7.03%
中国            5.98%   48.61%   54.82%   6.21%
四国            5.03%   45.62%   50.63%   5.01%
九州            6.37%   45.55%   52.04%   6.49%
Total           8.72%   39.45%   46.82%   7.37%
 
It is very clear that the LDP-KP vote share increase is mostly due to a good section of the YP, which is a LDP splinter back in 2009 anyway, vote share coming back.  In 2012 YP backed JRP in many places and YP voters voted JRP for FPTP candidates in addition to YP candidates.  Where neither JIP and YP ran candidates in 2012, the YP voter mostly voted LDP.  Also, in places where YP and JRP had candidates and ran strong in 2012 (like Tokyo and Osaka), these YP MPs mostly went over to DPJ or JIP where I expected the YP voting bloc in those districts to follow these leaders evan as many of them will vote LDP on the PR.  So while I had expected on the PR side for LDP to pick up support from the fall of YP which did indeed take place, I did not expect a large swing toward LDP-KP in FPTP from 2012 from the premise that a lot of YP voters voted LDP in FPTP anyway in 2012 and the YP and JRP MPs they did vote for now are in JIP or DPJ and many if not most of these YP voters will follow these MPs.  I was wrong as it seems in places like Tokyo and Osaka these YP voters voted for LDP.

As a side note, I was right in using  東海 section during the count as the bellwether PR section.  it seems 東海 LDP-KP vote share is always 1% below the LDP-KP national vote share.  This relationship held in 2014 as it did in 2012.