It's possible that the "LePage second choice" Cutler supporters abandoned him for LePage, whereas the "Michaud second choice" ones stuck with Cutler. I think there was a similar dynamic in the McAuliffe/Cuccinelli/Sarvis race. Sarvis got well below his polls, and Cuccinelli did far better than expected.
This is very possible. The exit polls show that had it been a 2 way race LePage would have won 49-46 which is a total shock to me. LePage won GOP voters 87-8 but held losses in Dem voters to 78-16 while mostly splitting the independent vote. LePage won conservatives 86-9 and held losses in liberal voters to 79-15 while splitting the moderate vote. It seems that this would validate your theory of "LePage second choice" Cultler voters who mostly are either Dem/Lib or Independent/Moderates having lost faith in Michaud and wanting to vote for Cutler then realized that Cutler could not win and then voted for LePage. Cutler seems to have played a role of a transition station for Michaud voters to go over to Lepage.