Will China ever invade Taiwan?

[jaichind]

At this stage without US support, the Taipei regime can hold out at most two weeks before total defeat.  That pretty much comes from the ROC Minister of Defense.  Main reason the PLA does not attack is becuase possible USA intervention, economic fallout, political/monetery cost of an occupation.  That PLA will win is for certain and the gap between the two sides will get even bigger and bigger.  Eventually my fellow Chinese on Taiwan Province will have to surrender in some way.  As someone from from Taiwan Province I only hope it would be honerable and without bloodshed.

[jaichind]

I am very impressed at what Taiwan became after Chiang Kai-shek finally died - a prosperous free-market democracy. It is SO much easier to like Taiwan over China - the shining ally versus the ominous enemy. I understand that China feels reunification will happen at some point...but quite frankly, Taiwan has a point: China should change to meet IT, not the other way around. I believe that on Taiwan itself, the pro-reunification folks are still a majority...although every year that passes with China still a blustering, corrupt, repressive state probably makes that sentiment ebb a little bit more. After all, given the level of Chinese interference in Hong Kong's political system, why should any Taiwanese who supports democracy believe anything positive China says about 'one country, two systems'?

It doesn't mean Taiwan will be able to resist Chinese pressure forever, of course, but I think there will be a lot more bumps on the road to reunification than China wants to admit.

The fact is that the current wealth on Taiwan Province was due mainly because of the policies of Chiang Kai-Shek and the KMT regime.  Chiang's son Chiang Jin-Guo took over in 1975 and was in charge until 1988 followed by KMT leader Lee Deng-Hui.  Both KMT leaders had policies that were less successful on the long run.  The failure to push forward with a second land reform in 1992 made for a much worse distribution of income.  The 1950-3 land reform under Chiang Kai-Shek's regime paved the way for economic success. 

[jaichind]

I believe the current situation is the following.  The USA will eventually sell out the Taipei regime to the PRC at some future date.  The alternative to that would be for the USA to ensure the long term seperation of Taiwan Province from the rest of China.  This means that the USA will be faced with another Cold War where the PRC will spend the next 50 years to overturn the USA world order.  A war the USA might very well lose.

Much more likely is the USA will sell out the Taipei regime, for a high price.  The USA is like a farmer holding a cage with a chicken (aka Taiwan Province) haggleing with a store owner (PRC) for a right price to sell the chicken.  In the meantime, the farmer and store owner would want to make sure that the chicken does not escape from the cage (declare independence.)  The farmer would want to make sure that the store owner does not take the chicken by force for free (opposing PRC attack on Taiwan Province and provinding the Taipei regime with some weapons.)  The chicken senses its doom and wants to work for its escape by tricking the farmer and store owners to come to blows as well as get tools to break the lock on the cage (various attempts to provoke an armed conflice betwen PRC and USA plus trying to get offensive weapons.)  Of course both the farmer and store owner will prevent this as the farmer would be deprived of his payoff (various strategic concessions by PRC that it might be willing to part with at this stage) and of course the store owner will be deprived of the chicken (reunification.)  

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

[jaichind]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

I am afraid not.  Both the farmer (USA) and store owner (PRC) already identified the chicken from gettings the keys (getting nukes) as a threat to the deal they will make in the future.  PRC already announced that any attempts on ROC regime to get nukes will result in an all out assult.  ROC actually had a secret nuke program until the late 1980s and the USA forced them to shut it down once they found out.  Same thing, both USA and PRC have a deal to make and no one (or chicken) will stop them from making this deal.  Both sides are still probing each other on the exact details of such a deal but deal they will.  This would explain why Bush was very angry whenever there is any talk of Taiwan Independence.  It is taking the goods he plan to sell out of his hands.

[jaichind]

Hey, I didnt write that text, but it sounded pretty on point to me so I posted it.  If China owns a ton of our debt why can't they say "Pay up please"?

They can by selling US treasuries on the market.  Result, US treasuries tumble as other holders of US treasuries also sell.  US dollar falls dramatically and the value PRC holdings of US assets as foreign reserves (over $600 billion) falls dramatically.  The PRC will screw itself by doing this.  Best way out is for US savings rate to rise over the next few years and the US current account deficit will fall.  This way PRC and other US treasuries holders and slowly shift out of US dollars into Euro, Yen or even PRC's RMB without triggering a crisis.
 

[jaichind]

Latest poll on Taiwan Province shows only 49% will be willing to fight in the event of a Mainland invasion.  For college students, only 35% are willing to fight.  Main reason cited for unwillingness to fight is the basic fact that Taiwan cannot win in such a conflict so why bother. 

[jaichind]

I stand by my previous words, "Taipei regime."  In the end, the current regime on Taipei is no better than that of the Mainland in terms of "press freedom." 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taiwan bans Chinese reporters
 
11.04.05

 
Taiwan has ordered mainland Chinese reporters to leave as retaliation against China’s decision to pass a new law authorising an attack on Taiwan if it pushes for formal independence, an official said.

Reporters from China’s official People’s Daily and the Xinhua News Agency have been told to leave because they have failed to accurately report on Taiwan, said Taiwan’s top policymaker on China.

"We’ve encouraged cultural exchanges to help the mainland understand Taiwan," said Joseph Wu, chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "But if these exchanges fail to foster understandings, we would have to come up with more effective measures."

Wu said Taiwan, however, may consider allowing reporters from some unofficial Chinese media. Most Chinese media is state-run, and Wu did not elaborate.