Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Italians and punctuality...

Could be various factions are trying to convince Renzi to not resign.  With arguments like "You are handing power the the M5S lunatics"

[jaichind]

RAI: Renzi's statement to country at Midnight delayed by 20 minutes.

Well, the margin is drop by drop narrowing but i really hope he's not resigning.

That seems to be a function of Tuscany and Emilia-Omagna are over reporting.

[jaichind]

Tecne projection.  No at 59.4%

[jaichind]

My prediction:

59.7% No
40.3% Yes

Turnout: 53.3%

Wow, what a projection.  Congrats.

[jaichind]

it is around 59.2-41.8 for No with around 17% of the sections coming in with results.

[jaichind]

Marie Le Pen

The Italians repudiated the EU and Renzi. We must listen to this thirst for freedom of nations and protection! MLP #referendumcostituzionale

https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/statuses/805546765265018882

[jaichind]

Renzi speaking.

[jaichind]

It is around 59.3-41.7 for No with around 31% of the sections coming in with results.  I do not see how the results changes that much from here.

[jaichind]

Renzi resigns

[jaichind]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

If Italy leaves the EU under M5S will there be a movement in Trentino-Alto Adige to join Austria given today's election result in Austria?

[jaichind]

M5S's Grillo is calling for snap elections.

[jaichind]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

EUR still down around 1% but is recovering from a steeper fall.  JPY, Gold and US treasuries up which is expected in a risk off situation.  Overall it is not that bad.  The markets has been expecting a No win for a while (perhaps not at this scale.)

[jaichind]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

But if the runoff between PD and M5S for the bonus seats is in favor of M5S which is what the current polling shows would not M5S then capture a lower house majority and the PM position.  Not clear which election law the Senate race will be using though.

[jaichind]

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

Portugal CDS have been steady for a while.  Main reason for increase in yields in Portugal gov debt has to do due to the Trump effect and the surge of the USD recently.  I doubt this will hurt the yields that much as the market already baked in a defeat for No.

[jaichind]

It is around 59.7-40.3 for No with around 88% of the sections coming in with results.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that due to the scale of defeat Renzi will be forced out of the leadership of PD.

[jaichind]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

[jaichind]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

Sure, but since a government requires that a majority for Lower House and Senate be assembled I rather be a party that wins the Lower House runoff for bonus seats since that guarantees that my party gets the PM position.  The Senate election will decided which other parties I have to rope in for power sharing. So all in all I rather win the Lower House runoff than not.

[jaichind]

Can a constitutional reform pass without a referendum?

I think you need 2/3 majority in both houses to avoid referendum. 

[jaichind]

Latest Ipsos Poll has M5S retaking the lead from PD 30.9% to 30.1%

[jaichind]

It's happening!

Parts of the anti-Renzi minority faction inside the PD are splitting from it to form a new party, the DP (Democrats and Progressives), also including some of the earlier PD splinters.

I'm really not sure how this is going to end. It's the first time that several of the real bigwhigs are leaving the PD (Bersani, D'Alema, Rossi, Errani, etc.), so if they manage to pull much of the ex-DS (Democrats of the Left) vote, they could get up to 15%. On the other hand I doubt that they really have that much influence left, so they might as well end up as an epic train-wreck in political nonone's land.

Emiliano (governor of Puglia) is staying within the PD to challenge Renzi.

Not sure if I am reading this SWG poll correctly but

http://scenaripolitici.com/2017/02/sondaggio-swg-24-febbraio-2017.html

seems to indicate that such a party will have 3.2% support.  Of course this was before the party which seems to be called Democrats and Progressives (DP) was kicked off officially.  Perhaps now it is formed its level of support might increase.

[jaichind]

Looks like M5S has moved back to a significant lead over PD 32.3 vs 26.8. 

[jaichind]

What are the chances FI FN Fdl AP coming together next election?  It seems like if they do not they are really conceding the race to a two way battle between M5S and PD.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Berlusconi bloc candidates ahead in Genoa, Verona mayoral elections, according to first exit polls broadcast on RAI and LA7 television networks.

[jaichind]

Looks like an Independent candidate is ahead in Parma