2013 Elections in Germany

[jaichind]

CDU 42.5
SPD 26.5
FPD   4.5
Left    8.5
Greens 8
AfD    4.8

[jaichind]

Looks like FDP and AfD both still have a chance to go over 5%.  If both does not make it it seems CDU/CSU is very close to beating SPD+Linke+Greens.

[jaichind]

Any link where I can track results as they come in ?

[jaichind]

ZFD

CDU     42.3
SPD      26.3
FDP        4.5
Greens   8
Left        8.5
AfD        4.8

It still has CDU/CSU behind 42.3 vs 42.8

[jaichind]

Still a chance for CDU/CSU government.  As I recall historically projections tends to get more friendly for CDU/CSU over time.

[jaichind]

Was out shopping this morning. So glad I pressured my wife to get back in time to watch this election.  This is going to be long but fun.

[jaichind]

Looks like FDP is not going to make it.  Too bad.  That is the only German party I like.

[jaichind]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

[jaichind]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

Or the UK elections of 2005 where Labour won an absolute majority with 35%.

Well, UK is FPTP so that is reasonable from a technical point of view.  But Turkey just like Germany is a PR system so having results like this is out of the ordinary.

[jaichind]

Huh... Christian Democrats - Volker Bouffier, Wolfgang Schäuble - are openly saying they hope the FDP gets in. (And implying their is no question that the AfD won't, lol.)
Not trusting their own backbenchers, are they?

Well, if this were the case they should have been open of loaning votes to FDP. 

[jaichind]

No CDU politician will want to weaken Merkel though at the zenith of her power.

Yes,  but what if someone were to offer a handful of CDU politicians cash in the case that Merkel loses the vote for Chancellor if it comes down to a tiny CDU/CSU majority.  In fact, I think back in 1972 the Stasi was able to bribe a couple of CDU MPs to vote against a possible CDU led government. 

[jaichind]

ZDF now has CDU/CSU tie with SPD+Linke+Greens in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

[jaichind]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

In principle, yes. It's untested, and you do need someone to vote for you for Chancellor, though.

Is the vote for Chancellor on an absolute majority basis or relative majority basis? Meaning, could not some of the opposition parties MP just abstain. 

[jaichind]

I would think for FDP to survive they would need a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition government.  Make sense ?  

[jaichind]

I think that Merkel said she regrets that FDP did not make it on ZDF TV. I am surprised that she has the time to go to ZDF studios to get interviewed.  You would think she would be deep in the CDU/CSU bunker looking over results and figuring out what to do.

[jaichind]

From what I read, Steinbrueck will refuse to join government if CDU/CSU has majority on its own.

[jaichind]

Merkel rules out minority government.

[jaichind]

ZDF projection.  CDU/CSU 42.3  SPD-Greene-Linke 42.4.  303 seats for both.

[jaichind]

Merkel said she is certain to serve a 4 year term.

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/CSU 42.1
SPD+Green+Linke 42.5

now CDU/CSU behind 302 seats vs 304 seats

FDP 4.6
AfD  4.9

Interesting AfD at 4.9 all night.

[jaichind]

ZFD

CDU/CSU   41.9
SPD-Green-Linke   42.6

CDU/CSU behind in seats 301 vs 305

FDP and AfD both at 4.8

[jaichind]

So it seems we will go into a CDU/CSU-SPD Grand coalition.  This could be very bad for SPD next election.  One way out is half way through the term, find an excuse to break the alliance and go for a SPD-Green-Linke government since enough time has passed since the SPD promise of not going into such a coalition.  

[jaichind]

In the end, the CDU/CSU are not really winners.  If they just worked to loan some votes for FDP they could be going to a government with a weaker FDP where they pretty much call the shots.  Now they have to deal with a SPD who got burned the last time they were in a coalition and will be demanding their pound of flesh for a coalition.

[jaichind]

FINAL (Second Vote)

CDU: 34.1% (+6.9)
SPD: 25.7% (+2.7)
Die Linke: 8.6% (-3.3)
Greens: 8.4% (-2.3)
CSU: 7.4% (+0.9)
FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

(CDU/CSU combined is 41.5%, (+7.8 ) if you are too lazy for math)

So the FDP finally comes in before AfD. Might change tomorrow's narrative a bit (though not that much...).

Yep.  I noticed that too.  At least FDP beat out AfD, for now.  If it is a Grand Coalition it keeps the FDP alive as the anti-establishment party of the Right as opposed to AfD.