2013 Elections in Germany

[freek]

DW now have CDU on 299; Grand Coalition only possible government.

CDU/CSU/Grüne ?

[Franknburger]

Some analysis on FDP & AfD (from ZDF)

- 40% of FDP voters had the party as first choice. 53% prefer the CDU. This yields something like 2% core FDP vote, plus 2.5% CDU loan vote (which probably is not sufficient). Biggest FDP losses were with voters below 40.

- AfD vote sources: 26% non-/first-time voters, 22% CDU, 17% "others" (presumably quite some NPD/REP voters among them), 12% FDP, remainder SPD/Green/Linke (don't recall the percentages, but it appeared to be a quite equal distribution in relation to 2009 party strength).

The 26% non-voters, and increased vote participation, tell you why AfD was underpolled ....

[Silent Hunter]

DW now have CDU on 299; Grand Coalition only possible government.

CDU/CSU/Grüne ?

Do you seriously think that would happen? Correction, only likely government.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Spindelegger (ÖVP) will get his Merkel-turbo that he wanted.

They'll probably talk the whole week now about Merkel's success to stay ahead of the FPÖ.

[RogueBeaver]

Merkel delivering her victory speech now. Seems quite relieved and happy.

[minionofmidas]

No precincts in in Frankfurt, Wiesbaden or Berlin, but I found one in Dresden:

CDU  49,6 %  
 DIE LINKE  13,7 %  
 SPD     13,7 %  
 FDP     4,6 %  
 GRÜNE      6,9 %  
 NPD      4,6 %  
 BüSo          0,0 %  
 MLPD            0,0 %  
 AfD     3,1 %  
 pro Deutschland            0,0 %  
 FREIE WÄHLER      3,1 %  
 Piraten      0,8 %  

Just 233 registered voters and 57.1% day turnout, so that Pirate figure represents one vote.

[minionofmidas]

W00t! Rhineland-Pfalz are supercounters and have that state page that collates precincts!

http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/btw/wahlen/2013/index.html

Clicking through constituencies... the CDU (understandably on these numbers) doesn't get all that many more direct than list votes. While the SPD does.

[Kevinstat]

DW now have CDU on 299; Grand Coalition only possible government.

CDU/CSU/Grüne ?

Do you seriously think that would happen?

Well, it's more likely then CDU/CSU/Linke

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU now just short of an absolute majority by 1 seat in both the ARD and ZDF projections that came out a few minutes ago.

ARD: 299 of 598
ZDF: 303 of 606 (probably some overhang mandates)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Is there any place to watch coverage in English?

Yes:

http://mediacenter.dw.de/english/live/

Thank you!

[DC Al Fine]

So what's the future of FDP/AfD assuming they win no seats?

[Tender Branson]

Merkel approval rating among ALL voters:

80-17 approve

(ZDF)

By party:

97% CDU/CSU
90% FDP
60% AfD
43% Left
39% Greens
18% SPD

[minionofmidas]

FDP dropping to 4.4% at ZDF... fat lady getting ready... we may well be waiting for clarity for the AfD til the early morning. Still 4.9%.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

[Beezer]

So what's the future of FDP/AfD assuming they win no seats?

If I had my way I'd merge the parties into a single, slightly euro (not Europe)-sceptic party. Will be interesting to see what happens to the FDP. A grand coalition would be a best case scenario in which they could stand a decent chance of getting back over 5%.

[minionofmidas]

So what's the future of FDP/AfD assuming they win no seats?

Depends on what happens, exactly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FDP dropping to 4.4% at ZDF... fat lady getting ready...

[jaichind]

Looks like FDP is not going to make it.  Too bad.  That is the only German party I like.

[Beezer]

Absolute majority for Mutti according to ARD.

[Tender Branson]

302/598 seats.

[mubar]

Guess these numbers could have been expected. But I feel so disappointed that Greens seem to be heading towards their worst result since 1998.

The prospect of CDU/CSU getting an own majority with just 42% is rather curious. If both FDP and AfD are left under the threshold, we are looking at something like 16% of "wasted" vote. But of course if both manage to get in, only something like 6% of vote won't count. Yes, I know why the 5%-limit exists and that it's ruled to be constitutional, but I can't imagine it being particularly nice for any supporter of small parties.

[Tender Branson]

ZDF now has an absolute majority as well:

[minionofmidas]

The government won't be any worse than the last one... but the media will be.

[jaichind]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

[Tender Branson]

ARD: