NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458180626243375104?t=JJleKQX1m1kdszep06Gv1Q...

Carol Shea-Porter needs to primary Hassan if he's running. The rivalry must continue

She needs to primary Hassan regardless

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Here's Plan B, C, D, E, and F:

Frank Edelblut (Wilton): Education commissioner. Probably has the best chance to win at this point. More of a unifying figure in the GOP (who almost beat Sununu) and has proven electability. Can run a Youngkin-style campaign pretty easily. The problem is that his actual record in education is easy to attack, mainly his voucher program running over budget. But with the NHDP coming down with a case of DNC Brain you can't rule him out completely. Tilt D

Matt Mowers (Bedford): Former NH-1 candidate and Trump aide. Clearly well-respected by the establishment and has strong Trump credentials. Problem is that he moved here the first time to run for Congress.

He's being lobbied by The Powers That Be to swap to Senate. On one hand, the general would be much harder (though not impossible) for him to win. On the other, the primary isn't even safe, with Karoline Leavitt racking up an impressive list of national endorsements. Leans D

Chuck Morse (Salem): I'll believe it when I see it. Leans D if he runs

Jay Lucas (Newport): Businessman who has expressed interest in running for Senate previously. Actually ran for governor in 1998. Has stayed in the limelight for a bit and is close to Sununu, and I believe he's considering a run right now. I'm pretty bullish on him. Leans D

Bill Binnie (Portsmouth): Sure, I guess. Likely D

Frank Guinta (Manchester): Former NH-1 Congressman. Most famous for getting an illegal $355k loan from his parents and lying about being exonerated. Was found guilty and universally condemned by the NHGOP. Blew NH-1 in 2016 and will probably lose. Safe D

Ovide Lamontagne (Manchester): lol. Safe D.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Oh right, I forgot:

Corey Lewandowski: More Trumpy but still pretty radioactive. Likely D

Don Bolduc: Completely off the reservation. Safe D

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

All that is fine, but your point of comparison is the TXGOP. They've been there, done that, and much more. I mean, maybe it's got to do with the fact that TX is much bigger and therefore is more important to the media than NH, but I don't see controversial actions the NH legislature/governor have taken cropping up in the news on a regular basis. TX is, as I said, one of the craziest GOP's even otherwise. The NH legislators may be terrible, but they still, no matter what their motivation, have not done nearly as much damage as the TX legislature has.

But I still stand by much of what I said. I'd invite you to name bills the NH legislature have passed that are as terrible in magnitude as TX's. TX has passed terrible bills on masks (schools and businesses), guns, abortion, critical race theory, to name just a few. If you can, name what the NH legislature has done that is as bad on each of those issues. And if you can't (which, quite frankly, I suspect to be the case), you've proven my point that the NH legislature is still much better than TX's.

I was going to ignore this, but you're still condescending to me like you have any sort of idea what you're doing, so here we go:

The main thing is the 2021 state budget, which includes a vague anti-CRT provision and one of the strictest abortion bans in the country (aside from the term). While it's a ban for up to 24 months, it forces ultrasounds before abortions, weakens the life-of-mother exception, and doesn't include exceptions for rape and incest. It also has a similar ban on "divisive concepts" - again - attached to the budget.

The NHGOP has also passed a controversial voucher program that gives away public school funding to private schools. It's based on Betsy DeVos's "education freedom account" policy, and has been radioactively unpopular. Instead of costing $130,000 as advertised, it cost $7 million. It's a massive giveaway that's being balanced on the backs of our towns. (And we haven't even mentioned Sununu nominating Edelblut, a political hack with no education experience like DeVos, as EdSec)

Nothing on voting rights passed this session, but SB3 from 2017 was very, very bad. HB 1264 attempted to change the residency definition, but did little to suppress voting. SB3, however, required new voters to sign a lengthy form to prove their residency. Sununu notably admitted that the law suppressed the student vote, yet signed it into law anyway. His own Supreme Court agreed, unanimously striking it down.

They have also prevented state or local governments, or public facilities, from issuing vaccine mandates.

And that doesn't even get into the Executive Council's $27 million rejection of federal vaccine funding and defunding of Planned Parenthood. The latter is the first time PP has been defunded in 8 years.  

It's funny, because if you actually followed NH politics closely enough to be an expert, you'd know all of these things. I've posted these bills, at length, on multiple occasions and how it would hurt Sununu in a Senate run. I've even done it in this thread! Yet somehow, after our last conversations about NH politics, you're still condescending to me like your entire opinions on my state aren't based on a false assumption.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Cope

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I would be very, very surprised if Morse ran. He's passed on plenty of good opportunities for a run for office in the past, and he also has a business of his own to manage.

Sununu Jr. or Edelblut are probably their best bets, despite Edelblut's failures as Ed Secretary. As I've said before, the NHDP's failure to make Sununu's education policy an issue is the single largest misstep I've seen in New Hampshire politics. He's ultimately not very well known, and the NHDP's case of terminal #Resistance Brain hasn't cleared up yet. If he's able to define himself as a smiley Nice Guy like Sununu he wins.

I could see the wave dragging a C-lister like a Bill Binnie or a Kevin Smith across. Guinta is too corrupt to win, Corky is a meme, and Bolduc is a joke who would immediately get triaged.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

Any serious non-Hassan Democratic candidate who could jump in? Wikipedia says the only guy running against her is a former GOP state rep.

Probably not a high profile one. The NHDP has always managed to keep party unity.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Democrat or Republican, I'm not supporting anyone who supports paying food service workers 19th century wages. Sorry not sorry.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I can't find any records of a firm like this, there;s no crosstabs or demographic information, and they apparently did this for a Republican site.

I've been consistent about a C-lister like Bill Binnie being able to win, but this poll is trash. JUNK IT!

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This is a legit shock. I didn't even expect him to run for anything - he's been talked about as a candidate for higher office for forever and has passed every time. I didn't expect him to run, let alone for Senate.

I have very mixed feelings about the entire thing. He's reasonable enough to get dragged across the finish line. He's more of an old-school fiscal conservative instead of a Trumpy type. The guy hasn't pushed the anti-vax crap like Packard or the Executive Council have.

The real red flag is that in his announcement article he's not really running with a clear plan. For a long-established fiscal policy wonk with 20 years of experience, you'd expect him to have a clear set of positions. It's all just generic platitudes with specifics promised "by the end of the month".

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Morse would be a decent enough candidate against Hassan, but I do think the primary could be a tough climb for him, especially if it is just Morse and Bolduc. Bolduc might even have some advantages right now just from slightly higher name recognition from running in 2020.

And with that, it's going to be more:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1480999400046354436

Kevin Smith's had an interesting career. His first gig was as a part of Cornerstone, a think tank that stressed social conservatism over fiscal conservatism. He was staunchly pro-life and anti-gay marriage 10 years ago. He decided to run for governor and lost the primary to noted meme Ovide Lamontagne. Since then, he's pivoted to fiscal conservatism and good governance as Londonderry's town manager, cutting property taxes, attracting business, and increasing revenue.

I'm actually pretty bullish on his campaign. Even despite his poor fundraising in his NH-Gov, Smith was a good candidate who outperformed expectations. I think he's by far the best candidate to win the general but with the split and an imminent Trump endorsement it's likely Bolduc will win and throw the seat to Hassan.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1484623703157653505?t=U4jFtG8NcAn3BXPqa...
 
Moderate, sensible Republican btw.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll
https://twitter.com/UNHSurveyCenter/status/1486367712196526081

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

I can't wait to see her approval numbers. Incredible schadenfreude after she sold us out to the Other NRA.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/LPNH/status/1488159030640062465

The Libertarians have their candidate, Jeremy Kaufmann. Kaufmann is a big Mises Caucus guy, and in my opinion is a Republican plant. I've heard he's toyed around with the idea of the LP not campaigning to boost GOP candidates, and he has expressed outright support for Trump before.

Needless to say, I won't be voting for Kaufmann. Amazing how there are three GE candidates and all of them are Republicans.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

lol, not like I'd expect the people on this forum to be honest and not smear anybody they don't like as a "Trump supporter" "Republican" or whatever, but you'd think they'd at least have some evidence.

My bad. I must have gotten my Mises people mixed up. Their Gov nominee, Borysenko, is the MAGA person.

Kaufman is the racist pedo.

Truly, truly amazing that the only non-Republican in the race literally wants to repeal the age of consent. We live in an absolute society.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Maggie_Hassan/status/1514403363529666561?cxt=HHwWgsC9...

DSCC needs to cut Hassan off for that.

lol, lmao

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'm still more concerned with her coming out against minimum wage reform for donorbux from the largest restaurant chain in the state, but go off.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/ChrisHartline/status/1513925909409054726?t=5lbGMYIMaAma13QGv...

MAGA Maggie's signature immigration policy, Remain in Mexico, has been overturned by the Bush Court. Does this doom her political fortunes for 2022?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

lmao Republicans may very well have dodged a bullet here. I've been saying for months that Smith is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Hassan. If the conservatives coalesce around him he wins.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Well, that aged like milk:

https://twitter.com/SolomonPhoenix_/status/1545468536482439168

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

lmao Republicans may very well have dodged a bullet here. I've been saying for months that Smith is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Hassan. If the conservatives coalesce around him he wins.

Chuck Morse I think likely wins by around 1 or 2%. He is a MAGA guy overall, but has a lot of political experience in New Hampshire and an inspiring life story.

Morse is very, very swampy and more of an older-style Republican than anything. He's a MAGA guy in the same way that Sununu is, but doesn't have anywhere near the skills to set himself apart.

Unlike Smith and Bolduc he's on the record, as Senate President, passing an abortion ban. Maybe it won't kill Sununu's campaign but I think it could be enough to shift votes to Hassan.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

What makes Mark Kelly a strong candidate and Hassan a weak one? Kelly has been a senator for 4 fewer years and just seems like a generic liberal who votes with Biden 90% of the time.

Kelly has a strong background as a Navy SEAL and astronaut. He's a moderate, but enough of a team player that he hasn't alienated progressives. Plus he can lean in on his background to beat back accusations of being a Pelosi/Schumer liberal.

Even someone like Chris Pappas has a strong geographic connection to the most populous area in the city. He owned and ran a popular restaurant in the area and his last name sort of crosses partisan boundaries there. It was a massive contrast to his main primary opponent in 2018 and Matt Mowers, who both moved to New Hampshire to run for Congress.

To be fair, Hassan's campaign hasn't been bad - just a bit cookie cutter. The Sawx vote probably isn't big enough to matter. Even if we had significant numbers, her vote against minimum wage reform was a year and a half ago. The NHDP doesn't have an adversarial relationship with its left wing, and she's only facing token primary opposition. Most of the people outraged at her vote against the administration have simply moved on to Manchin and Sinema.

Her actual campaign so far has been more of "muh bipartisanship" with talks about her trying to bring down gas prices with a gas tax holiday. It's a lot better than the radio silence from the GOP side, but it's really nothing special. Just the same focus-grouped, overanalyzed playbook you see from every Democratic politician. It works well here but I don't think it's good enough to carry her in a rough environment.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yeah, for all my bitching about Dem strategy it works well on the federal level here. She's not a bad candidate - just nothing special.

As I said before, people like me don't really exist here and most progressives will be in her corner.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

That's the vibe I'm getting too. His name recog and reasonably Offline campaign probably pushes him past Fenton but I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see him in 3rd.