New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

F**k this f**king party.

Between this, Schumer giving away free money to T***p on immigration, the PSC's shenanigans, and the inability to get voters out in Georgia, Democrats keep proving why they don't deserve to win elections.

Really in general, the party needs a good purge.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

It's not even the fact that he lost that pisses me off. It's the fact that most of these scared-ass mother****ers won't stand by their vote. There are 37 defectors in the party. Only two have named themselves, and those two are deeply entrenched incumbents that are also political institutions (at least in Manchester).

These people know the consequences of their vote. They know it was the wrong thing
 And they're all too ****ing cowardly to face the music.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

^ Well, i suppose "political institutions" knew precisely what they were doing. And tend to trust their opinion.

Well of course they did. My point is that the only two on the record are (in effect) immune from any sort of consequence because they are so entrenched. Their influence is also confined to a local level (in this case, Manchester).

And, well, I'm of the school of thought that if you're going to make a tough vote, you should have the guts to name yourself and stand by it.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

SECRETARY OF STATE ARCHIVE:

The dust has settled. Democrats have won both chambers of the State House, though Chris Sununu still controls the governor's mansion. This only leaves one race of the 2018 cycle, the Secretary of State's race. Previously noncontroversial, bipartisan incumbent Bill Gardner has been a largely uncontroversial figure, despite being a Democrat. Even the most ardent Republican hacks re-elected him in 2010, and he has been a political institution for the state.

Then he served on Trump's voter fraud position. In addition to that, he endorsed Republican voter suppression measures, giving a bipartisan veneer to Bill O'Brien's goal to stop college students from voting. Democrats are calling for his head, and have floated a fallen rising star in former executive councilor and failed gubernatorial candidate Colin Van Ostern. His method of campaigning has involved creating a PAC and promising to fund legislators' campaigns in exchange for their support in the upcoming election. This turned off a few people in the party - mainly the anti-money in politics crowd. One of their own ran in Peter Sullivan, but this flamed out.

Quick candidate profiles:

Republicans:

Bill Gardner (de facto) - 42-year incumbent. Technically a Democrat. Decided to shill for Trump and GOP voting policies, and is now facing an internal revolt. Has the support of every Republican, so I'm putting him under here. Was previously an institution for protecting the FITN primary.

Democrats:

Colin van Ostern - Former Executive Councilor/gubernatorial nom. Promises to modernize our elections. Some in the party are turned off by his big-money campaigning.

Peter Sullivan - Former Manchester alderman and state rep. Also a Twitter friend. Generally campaigned on being Gardner without the voter suppression. Got seven votes in the prelim and dropped out.

RATING: Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO more, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be over the majority. This could really go either way.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Wayne MacDonald declined, and so did Biundo. The field is cleared for Stepanek to be the next NHGOP chair.

The Trumpification of the NHGOP is now complete.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I finally have some clear, reasoned thoughts on the issue. It took me a week of analysis and reflection, but I can finally do a post-mortem on the Secretary of State's race.

The more I think about it, the more angry and frustrated I get. Not because of Democratic defectors, but because I believe this was an avoidable outcome. Looking back at the race, there were some legitimate concerns with Van Ostern. I admittedly sympathized with some of them, mainly about him trying to buy the seat, and would have supported Sullivan on the first ballot because of them. We can argue about whether Gardner was bipartisan or not, but we can't argue that Van Ostern (and, by proxy, the NHDP) was trying to buy the position of Secretary of State.

Don't get me wrong. Gardner was an incredibly strong, entrenched candidate, who had a profile of operating outside the political realm before his Trump stunt. Normal campaign logic would have been to coalesce around a qualified, low-profile, grassroots candidate, have the state party pour money into the downballot races, run a strong campaign on the level of state representatives, and win. Peter Sullivan was that candidate - he essentially ran as a continuation of Gardner's best policies with some reforms and without the GOP shilling.

But of course, this is the Democratic Party. Even the NHDP, despite being an island of competence in a sea of ineptitude over the past year, is susceptible to messing things up. They decided to take a page out of Generic Dying State Party's book and run a retread candidate. And this wasn't just your average retread. This was a retread that lost in 2016. You know, the year where a fairly popular Republican Senator fell, even as Trumpmania almost turned the state red for the first time in 16 years. That should have been the first sign that they'd screw this up - out of the thousands of Democrats in the state, you coalesce around this guy?

Instead of lobbying whatever representatives were elected, keeping a low-profile, and learning from other Democratic Secretaries of State, Van Ostern decided to run a glorified pay-to-play scheme. In effect, he would take an active role in politics and his PAC would fund their campaigns if they promised their support. I don't blame Peter Sullivan for having sour grapes over the thing. Maybe I was going too far with using the word perceived - the Democratic "primary" was a coronation. Party leadership came out to support CVO as soon as he announced, with almost no consideration to Sullivan. Instead of going with their formula, which had worked for years, they decided to run a candidate with a strong profile, throw hundreds of thousands of dollars at the election, and call it a day. You know, because that strategy worked so well for the Moulton-No Labels coalition in NH-1.

Of course, throwing money at people does nothing for the 20-to-30 defectors who are so entrenched that they can freely buck the party for their decades-long friendships with Gardner. And that's not counting the 7 rogue Sullivan supporters who wound up voting for the Republican because of said money-throwing. I'll at least concede most of the supporters wouldn't change their minds if Sullivan ran. But I'd be willing to bet there are more than a few defectors who were legitimately turned off by CVO's attempt to buy the election - enough to flip it to Democrats.

This is, without a doubt, the biggest Democratic failure of any race in the 2018 cycle. This wasn't FL-Gov, where the devout Trumpie base matched enthusiasm levels of the base and elect DeSantis and Scott. This was a very winnable race that was botched in spectacular fashion. To put it as bluntly as I can, the NHDP ditched their playbook and decided to go Full 2016.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/state/sununu-inner-circle-received-thousands-from-lobbyist-funded-nonprofit/article_580c5a32-3b3d-58b2-ace3-566655c49f8d.html

Surprise. Sununu is a swamp creature.

Really? Not the guy whose dad was White House Chief of Staff and Governor, and whose brother was a Senator!

The man who is utterly unable to hold a policy position for more than 6 months is a swamp creature? Color me shocked.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

ARCHIVEPOST, WILL BE CREATING NEW POST FOR CHIEF JUSTICE NEWS

Today, we have our Secretary of State election on December 5th.

The dust has settled. Democrats have won both chambers of the State House, though Chris Sununu still controls the governor's mansion. This only leaves one race of the 2018 cycle, the Secretary of State's race. Previously noncontroversial, bipartisan incumbent Bill Gardner has been a largely uncontroversial figure, despite being a Democrat. Even the most ardent Republican hacks re-elected him in 2010, and he has been a political institution for the state.

Then he served on Trump's voter fraud position. In addition to that, he endorsed Republican voter suppression measures, giving a bipartisan veneer to Bill O'Brien's goal to stop college students from voting. Democrats are calling for his head, and have floated a fallen rising star in former executive councilor and failed gubernatorial candidate Colin Van Ostern. His method of campaigning has involved creating a PAC and promising to fund legislators' campaigns in exchange for their support in the upcoming election. This turned off a few people in the party - mainly the anti-money in politics crowd. One of their own ran in Peter Sullivan, but this flamed out.

Quick candidate profiles:

Republicans:

Bill Gardner (de facto) - 42-year incumbent. Technically a Democrat. Decided to shill for Trump and GOP voting policies, and is now facing an internal revolt. Has the support of every Republican, so I'm putting him under here. Was previously an institution for protecting the FITN primary.

Democrats:

Colin van Ostern - Former Executive Councilor/gubernatorial nom. Promises to modernize our elections. Some in the party are turned off by his big-money campaigning.

Peter Sullivan - Former Manchester alderman and state rep. Also a Twitter friend. Generally campaigned on being Gardner without the voter suppression. Got seven votes in the prelim and dropped out.

RATING: Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO more, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be over the majority. This could really go either way.


ARCHIVES:

2018:
Governor ratings
Senate ratings
Executive Council ratings
Secretary of State's Rating

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Former Congressional candidate/Carol Shea-Porter staffer Naomi Andrews is running for State Representative in the Rockingham-9 special. This seat opened up when representative Sean Morrison (R-Epping) got sick of dealing with the BS of politics. While the district is R+4, a Democrat (Mark Vallone) did get the most votes. Two Republicans are running: Michael Vose and Cody Belanger.

Michael Vose is a former state rep who got beaten by the current representative in NH. Sununu selected him for a seat on the Site Evaluation Committee, which helps regulate energy facilities and gas pipelines. He was voted down by the then-Republican-controlled Executive Council, and has since sought to get back to the State House. Vose is very pro-Northern Pass and for Granite Bridge, a natural gas pipeline.

Cody Belanger is a selectman who happens to be a part of the Online Right brigade you see in the NHGOP nowadays. He has a bit of clout in the NHGOP and has apparently been part of the Young Republicans.

----

Naomi Andrews most likely has the field to herself. As I've said before, her qualifications speak for themselves. I found her to be the best-performing candidate in the field. If she had gotten in earlier, I believe she had a legitimate chance to win (especially if she consolidated the support of women's identity groups). Unfortunately, she didn't, and she got 4th place.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/AndruVolinsky/status/1145746929529307137

Andru Volinsky is exploring a run. He's been rumored to be in for a while, looking for hires and whatnot. This is the gerrymandered seat in District 2, but it's trended harder to Trump than CD-1, so there is an opening. My gut tells me this will be Lean D because of the Trump trend.

One name I've heard is Jay Surdukowski, another Concord lawyer, but it's iffy he'd get support, considering he's currently one of the Democrats backing Sununu's nominee for Chief Justice. There's always Colin van Ostern too if the establishment wants to resurrect his career, or one of the many other Keene/Durham/Dover/Concord/other town officials that this district stretches across.

Either way, still a Lean R race.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Chris Sununu has nominated Gordon MacDonald, his Attorney General, to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. This has quite a bit of controversy, considering he has no judicial experience besides a clerking position. He's also served as a Republican political operative, serving as Gordon Humphrey's chief of staff and legislative director, as well as Sununu's Attorney General.

As such, his nomination is in question due to the Democratic-controlled Executive Council. Mike Cryans has already decided not to vote for him. Some believe that Sununu is seeking to put a partisan operative on the courts, while others are concerned about his abortion stances. Pignatelli seems more concerned about the latter. Overall, it's certainly interesting enough to warrant its own inclusion here, as it'd likely require Sununu's likely opponent next year to get him past.

---

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

Well, exactly what I would do if MY nominations were treated this way.... IIRC - Democrats don't have veto-proof majority in Legislature, and, generally, unlike previous years, voting in legislature was extremely polarized (presumably - because Democrats pushed strongly liberal platform hard)....

The Legislature doesn't handle nominations. The Executive Council does. They are the ones who have "veto power" over nominees and chose to exercise it.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Bumping to let everyone know Feltes is in

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Executive Council candidate, former state rep, and former congressional candidate Mindi Messmer endorses Feltes.

This is a huge get for Feltes. Messmer is very popular within the grassroots and has (in effect) become the standard-bearer for the Bernie wing of the party in the southern part of the state.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1171211313395228674?s=19

Attorney Cinde Warmington is likely to be in if Volinsky gives up his EC seat.

I'll be donating to her campaign. Jay Surdukowski (her likely opponent) was the leading Democrat to speak out for Sununu's Chief Justice nominee (who I believe to be a partisan figure) and that's a massive disqualifier for obvious reasons. If I were in ECD-2, I probably wouldn't support him under any circumstances since this district is a Democratic sink. If I wanted a rubber stamp for Sununu's nominees, I would vote for a Republican.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Former Congressional candidate/Carol Shea-Porter staffer Naomi Andrews is running for State Representative in the Rockingham-9 special. This seat opened up when representative Sean Morrison (R-Epping) got sick of dealing with the BS of politics. While the district is R+4, a Democrat (Mark Vallone) did get the most votes. Two Republicans are running: Michael Vose and Cody Belanger.

Michael Vose is a former state rep who got beaten by the current representative in NH. Sununu selected him for a seat on the Site Evaluation Committee, which helps regulate energy facilities and gas pipelines. He was voted down by the then-Republican-controlled Executive Council, and has since sought to get back to the State House. Vose is very pro-Northern Pass and for Granite Bridge, a natural gas pipeline.

Cody Belanger is a selectman who happens to be a part of the Online Right brigade you see in the NHGOP nowadays. He has a bit of clout in the NHGOP and has apparently been part of the Young Republicans.

----

Naomi Andrews most likely has the field to herself. As I've said before, her qualifications speak for themselves. I found her to be the best-performing candidate in the field. If she had gotten in earlier, I believe she had a legitimate chance to win (especially if she consolidated the support of women's identity groups). Unfortunately, she didn't, and she got 4th place.

Vose wound up winning the primary and beating Andrews, 52-48. Unfortunate.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Quick E-Day rundown:

* Democrats picked up Laconia-Mayor, with former state senator Andrew Hosmer winning as an upset.

* Victoria Sullivan got routed in her bid for Manchester-Mayor, losing her own home ward. It's pretty much over.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Oh yeah - Volinsky is also in for NH-Gov. It's not likely he'll win, considering part of the progressive grassroots in the state seems to be coalescing around Feltes. Overall, this really seems like a late announcement - especially one that will shift the balance of the Executive Council to the right.

Surdukowski has announced his run for Volinksy's open seat, and so has UNH professor/lawyer Leah Plunkett. To say the very least, Plunkett has my full endorsement.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1199016594883698692?s=19

My Executive Councilor, Russell Prescott (R-Kingston), is retiring. He won by a little less than 1% in his last race against former Exeter selectman Joe Pace.

Former state rep/former congressional candidate Mindi Messmer is the Democrats' candidate, while businessman/former congressional candidate Bruce Crochetiere is weighing a run. Crochetiere is a fake moderate - claims to be personally "pro-choice" but is anti-Planned Parenthood and buys all the other right-wing talking points about government-funded abortions.

I'd actually put this at Toss-up. I can personally attest that Messmer is a great politician with very competent staff.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Bumping for the Komi news

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1257487389859221505

Glorious news!

Hopefully she won't be replaced by another POS rape apologist!

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Other Things I Missed:

* Democrats took Merrimack-24 in somewhat of a surprise. Democrat Kathleen Martins wound up beating Free Stater/general lunatic Elliott Axelman. Axelman is a nutter, advocating to abolish Medicare and Medicaid, comparing democracy to gang rape, and comparing gay marriage to pedophilia. Such a nutter, in fact, that he wound up losing to a solidly liberal, pro-income tax Democrat in a ruby-red district!

* State Senate races are starting to square up. Most of them are rematches, with Avard, Alford-Teaster, and Bolton looking for a second try. For SD-24, Hampton selectwoman Regina Barnes is the candidate. Otherwise, it'll mostly be a copy-and-paste of my previous ratings, except with proper adjustments to reflect Trends.

* Businessman Emmett Soldati is in for EC-2. He's actually the only candidate who isn't from Concord, and is a gay millennial businessman. He's also the son of congressional candidate Lincoln Soldati, who happened to do very well in his home county of Strafford (which makes up a surprising amount of the district). He's also currently embroiled in a lawsuit against Facebook over the false termination of his account, and is even somewhat known in Concord because of his business ventures. I'd say that he has a very strong position in the primary, considering he's known in the community.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

He's also currently embroiled in a lawsuit against Facebook over the false termination of his account,

Haha what's the backstory here?

His account was shut down for no discernible reason (if I had to guess, it was false reports from homophobic trolls). While he created a new account, it's inoffensive and doesn't have anything that would violate the TOS. His lawyers have filed a breach of contract lawsuit, since he spent money on advertising, while Facebook argues that the CDA's safe harbor provision applies to this case as well.

It's currently reached the state Supreme Court.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

Almost all the Republicans in the state senate will be over 65 by the time it's over. Most of them will be 70. Even their leadership consists of mostly olds. The only ones who don't fit the profile are state Trump acolyte Fred Doucette and noted asshole Al Baldasaro.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

State senator and NHDP Vice Chair Martha Fuller Clark (D-Portsmouth) is retiring after a long career. She originally was elected to the state house in 1990, serving for 5 years until she decided to run in NH-1 against then-Congressman John E. Sununu. After his Senate run, she then ran another rematch against then-state senator Jeb Bradley. After that, she decided to run for the state senate in 2004.

Fuller Clark then got unexpectedly wiped out in the 2010 wave by Nancy Stiles, a moderate Republican, but the NHGOP's gerrymander split the Portsmouth area off of the rest of the Seacoast and created a vote sink with Durham. She ran there and won, and her district is Safe D to this day. However, there are a lot of rising stars in the party. Here's a quick rundown of the big names in Portsmouth politics:

Stefany Shaheen: A businesswoman who serves on the Portsmouth Police Commission. Used to be on City Council. Daughter of Jeanne and Bill Shaheen. Usually mentioned when higher office opens up, but seems to be content with life in the private sector. - Is content with life in the private sector.

Maura Sullivan: Former Obama administration official and Tier 1 Congressional candidate. After losing to Chris Pappas, she has decided to stay in New Hampshire and get involved in party politics. Was a key ally of Buttigieg in our state, and has started to build bona fide relationships here. While Sullivan was a weak candidate for NH-1, the carpetbagging weakness has been resolved. I wouldn't be vehemently opposed to her running. Obviously, she'd probably be more centrist than someone like MacEachern, but a role in the state senate would give her a pathway back to the House, where her run would be more of a slam dunk. Cannot legally run. There's a 7-year residency requirement for running for a state-level position.

Deaglan MacEachern: Tech executive, son of a former local Democratic figure and gubernatorial nominee. He's more aligned with the Bernie wing of the party, and heavily pushed for Medicare for All. My personal pick - I really liked him when he ran for Congress.

Rebecca Perkins Kwoka: Former City Councilor, actively weighing a run right now. I don't know much about her.

Former Speaker Terie Norelli has already declined to run.