New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sherman Packard from Londonderry will be the new speaker.

Not a surprise. He was one of Hinch's best friends, and the two of them are very similar.

Apparently Al Baldasaro did wind up running as "Hinch's leadership but with COVID conspiracies". So did Tim Lang (who's generally been a voice of reason compared to your average nutjob from Belknap), and Max Abramson, who has left the GOP four times since being elected in 2012.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Seven representatives have endorsed secession over the election results. They are:

* Raymond Howard (Alton)
* Jose Cambrils (Merrimack)
* Anne Copp (Derry, believes Dr. Fauci has been bought off by the CCP)
* Dave Testerman (Franklin, husband of Karen, former NHGOV candidate)
* Scott Wallace (Danville)
* Mike Sylvia (Belmont)
* Not sure of the seventh - it looks like Erica Layon (Derry)

Very amusing to see them say that the election that got them into office (Cambrils even picked up a seat!) was invalid.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

That's horrifying

I'm sorry, I was wrong. They're seceding from New Hampshire itself. However they do it, or whatever.

Still horrifying that a non-zero amount of Republicans (shoutouts to the people who thought Sununu was one of the good ones for making this all possible) backed this lunacy.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Rep. James Spillane (R-Deerfield) is in hot water again. Previously famous for advocating for the murder of BLM protesters, he shared a picture of the Freedom for Humanity mural that caused a storm in Great Britain. It's actually the mural that got Corbyn in hot water for defending, and Trump's legal team is circulating around now in response to the current allegations. To say the very least, it's anti-Semitic.

It's deeply rooted in conspiracy theories. Some people saw its depictions of the rich, combined with the commentary about a shadow cabal controlling the world, as anti-Semitic. The artist himself said that he wasn't anti-Semitic because "only two of the people in the picture were Jewish", but dismissed the local Jewish community's concerns about the mural.

Spillane's proclivity for hate speech, along with the Dawn Johnson scandal, has amplified the accusations. Guy does not deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

33 state reps (including one of mine!) voted not to condemn the Capitol riots.

These include:
* Aidan Ankarberg (who wore a paper bag over his head instead of a mask)
* Gregg Hough (defended Dawn Johnson's anti-Semitic comments)
* Jeanine Notter (part of GOP leadership!)
* Norm Silber (also defended Johnson's anti-Semitic comments)
* Mike Sylvia (House Secessionist Caucus, organized a rebellion to defy mask mandates)
* Dave Testerman (House Secessionist Caucus)
* Scott Wallace (House Secessionist Caucus)
* Mark Warden (said not to criminalize domestic violence because "some people like being in abusive relationships")
* Ken Weyler (called giving benefits to Muslim "treason" while supporting actual treason)

Disturbing stuff, folks. Hopefully I get districted out of this asshole's district.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sherm Packard has already gotten into his first controversy. He has stripped Rep. Rosemarie Rung (D-Merrimack)'s commitee assignment for "conduct beneath the House" and inciting violence against a public official in a Tweet.

The tweet in question:

https://twitter.com/rosemarierung/status/1347228655680954369

For those who aren't aware, the line for such an action is not:
* Sharing an anti-Semitic mural
* Protesting outside the Republican governor, and party leader's house
* Pledging sedition and not recognizing the state government
* Giving credence to right-wing conspiracy theories
* Sharing a blatantly anti-Semitic article from a neo-Nazi website, that made a very strong reference to the N-word

But the line for a rebuke is:
* Mildly criticizing a police chief for attending the rally before the Capitol riots

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/nhpol603/status/1352399815863394304

One of the other bills flying under the radar is a plan to switch its EC apportionment to a congressional district-based system.

Putting aside the ramifications/debate on whether or not Sununu will back it, it's pretty likely that the GOP will take the approach of a Safe R/Safe D district.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Macdonald has been confirmed as NHSC chief justice

Truly shameful. Gordon MacDonald should have been a household name. If the NHDP had any competence, they would have pushed this hard. Not only does it show that Sununu isn't a bipartisan, leaving the CJ seat vacant for 18 months for his crony, but he's well-documented as being anti-choice.

He and Edelblut, another unqualified appointee who got the job for political reasons, should have been household names. But nope! Just repeat "Trump guy through and through!" over and over again like Sununu didn't distingush himself.

What a ****ing joke this party has become.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Of course, we can also talk about how they failed to counter Kevin Avard, who is essentially our state's version of MTG/Boebert. Maybe people don't know or care about QAnon, but they'll care when they find out Avard literally said the Parkland shooting was an inside job.

Just really stunning incompetence.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/nhpol603/status/1352399815863394304

One of the other bills flying under the radar is a plan to switch its EC apportionment to a congressional district-based system.

Putting aside the ramifications/debate on whether or not Sununu will back it, it's pretty likely that the GOP will take the approach of a Safe R/Safe D district.

I don't think it's possible to create a Safe R district in New Hampshire. Maybe Likely R.

A hypothetical GOP NH-1 would be competitive with someone like Al Baldasaro as its nominee. It'd be fairly safe with an inoffensive conservative like Birdsell though.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

The NHDP has hired a new executive director to right the ship! After the disastrous 2020 cycle, they apparently decided to move on from Amy Kennedy (no relation) and go with an outside hire. Let's see who they went with...

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/1426233894974758918

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1440469933440135168

New results coming from Manchester's mayoral election. 2019 candidate Victoria Sullivan beat out talk radio host Rich Girard for the second spot to face Joyce Craig.

The real takeaway here is that she broke 50%. This is a very good sign for the general, especially with Girard not endorsing Sullivan over her "not understanding city politics".

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Quick rundown of mayoral races:

* Manchester - Joyce Craig won by 54%. Rich Girard, I guess, didn't run a write-in campaign. Still a slam-dunk win - Sullivan was a bad candidate.

* Laconia - Andrew Hosmer, surprisingly, won with 74% of the vote in this hyper-Trumpy city. Not only does Hosmer have a strong local brand, nearly holding on in 2016, but he was going up against noted neo-Nazi Dawn Johnson.

* Rochester - Republicans picked up the mayor's office 65-31. A bit of a surprise, considering the incumbency.

* Keene - George Hansel, a moderate Republican, held this seat against Mark Zuchowski, an eccentric conservative Democrat who got caught hitting on the staff.

* Portsmouth - Former NH-1 candidate Deaglan McEachern flipped the Mayor's office. It's weird, in that the City Councilor with the highest votes becomes Mayor. This is a bit unexpected news.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Time for a candidate roundup:

Republicans:

Chris Sununu: The incumbent. Needs no introduction, making a bid for his fourth term. Has the legislature to deal with but has been weathering the storm and is still above water.

Karen Testerman: Primary challenger from the pro-COVID wing of the party. Has no chance.

Democrats:

Tom Sherman: State senator from Hampton. Is a doctor, so he has keys with COVID. Fairly moderate but not offensively so. His interest is fairly known and he might be in.

Chris Pappas: By far the most intriguing option. There are rumblings that he'd consider going for governor, but he has a very strong personal brand in the Manchester area. Guy even outperformed Biden. I'd call him the only candidate who can beat Sununu, but he might be better off running in NH-1 (especially if Leavitt wins the primary. Leavitt is no Youngkin).

Joyce Craig: Manchester mayor. Lucked out by facing a bad candidate for mayor twice, but also just won an election.

Melanie Levesque: Is still fairly active in NH politics, despite her loss to a literal Parkland truther. Would get rolled by Sununu.

Cinde Warmington: Only Democrat on the Executive Council. Very close with the Shaheens, who are kingmakers in NH politics.

Andru Volinsky: Lost a close primary bout in 2020. Could run again.

Dan Feltes: Wife took a job in Iowa. He's moving on to life in the private sector - best of luck to him.

Rating: Lean R with Pappas, Likely R with anyone else

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Still Likely R with Lynch. He's not particularly inspiring to the base (endorsed the de facto GOP candidate for SoS, is anti-marijuana and generally very moderate), and isn't an institution im politics like the Sununus are.

I would be very hesitant to vote for him but ultimately probanly would. I have confidence he'll undo the crap that Sununu has done, plus it provides a check on the loons.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Lynch would probably be the strongest candidate Democrats could put up and would have a chance of winning.

I would disagree. Lynch isn't entrenched or institutional like the Sununus were. He was a popular governor with a strong record, of course, but he's faded out of the minds of the people. 10 years ago is a long time. When John Lynch left the governor's mansion, Gangnam Style was taking over the Internet, Taylor Swift had just started her musical evolution to pop, and I was a DNC hack who wanted to join the Democratic Party to change the world.

Between that, the moderate heroism, and him campaigning for a de facto Republican, he seems like a memberberry candidate like McAuliffe or Bredesen. He'd lose pretty handily to Sununu, even considering NH's high-information bend. Someone like Pappas or a political outsider would be much better.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Here's a roadmap to beating Sununu, and how to turn the state blue:

1. Return to their local roots - The "Trump guy through and through" strategy has been an unmitigated disaster for Democrats in the state. For those who aren't familiar, Sununu made a quote in a debate that he was a “Trump guy through and through” in the primary. The quote became the NHDP's centerpiece of their campaign strategy since Sununu got elected.

It sounded desperate and ignored that Sununu had been noncontroversial, especially during pre-vaccination COVID. Abortion and post-vax COVID are weak spots now, but you won't be able to beat Sununu alone on those issues. You have to mix in local issues. Youngkin didn't win on Biden bashing and Ciattarelli didn't come close by saying "Let's go Brandon" over and over again. They did well by remembering that all politics is local.

2. Education, education, education - This is by far the weakest spot of Sununu's campaign. His agenda is the most conservative that has been passed since Brownback and Fallin. It's all based on DeVos's "education freedom account" plan, and has run massively over budget, costing $7 million instead of the $130,000 advertised. He nominated a DeVos-esque, unqualified political hack to be his Secretary of Education and together they're filtering money from our schools and communities to fund their donors.

This is the single biggest missed opportunity that the NHDP has had regarding Sununu. It might not be as important as COVID or the economy, but education has made the GOP radioactive in states like Kansas and Pennsylvania. Cuts to the USNH even caused a mini-wave on the state level here 10 years ago. You could have easily done the same here but for whatever baffling reason the NHDP has never really made Sununu's education policies an issue.

3. Flip the script on taxes - The "I'm not like other Democrats" strategy isn't enough. The message shouldn't be that Democrats Don't Actually Support Income Taxes, but that Republicans are the party of higher taxes and want to shift the tax burden onto our local communities and property taxes. While taking The Pledge to not support income taxes is important, there's a way to win while supporting an income tax.

There's a reason why Volinsky was the most successful progressive candidate in recent memory. He explicitly ran on cutting property taxes and had an effective counter to Feltes's attacks regarding an income tax. He lost by 5%. In contrast, Jackie Cilley, the progressive candidate, campaigned against the idea of tying herself to The Pledge and lost by 14%. By flipping the script, Volinsky stayed competitive in the primary and I believe he would have won if he entered earlier. It's no coincidence his ideas are starting to take hold in the party establishment.

4. Attack Sununu's roots - Sununu is a dynasty candidate. He came from a rich political family, used their connections to form a consulting company, bought a ski resort with the help of his family, and got elected with the help of his family. He may be an engineer, but how can a man of science throw in with anti-vaxxers at every turn?

Attacking Kennedy's upbringing in a Democratic primary in Massachusetts didn't hurt Markey much. People are tired of politics as usual, and that runs both ways. A self-made political outsider can win.

It's a shame that Feltes didn't have the campaigning skills because his background was perfect to beat Sununu. Feltes was a lawyer who came from a humble, working-class background, gave back to his community as a legal aid lawyer, and fought his way up the ladder. Instead he never really defined himself and ran an uninspired, negative campaign spouting off party talking points. Someone like a Joyce Craig or a Tom Sherman would be perfect, background-wise. Pappas doesn't fit this but at least has deep ties to Manchester.

5. Define the legislature and tie him to it - As I've said, the legislature is one of the most far-right in the country. It's probably the single most anti-vaccine legislature in the United States. Our Speaker of the House has made appearances at anti-vax rallies and our Executive Council was the only legislative body to deny federal vaccine funding. Downplay talk about Biden's mandate, and talk about how Sununu's cronies are opposed to the COVID vaccine itself. This is Sununu's legislature that he endorsed and campaigned for. He said to elect Republicans to help him enact his agenda. At best, the legislature is in control of him. At worst, he's an anti-vax, anti-abortion extremist.

6. Go more specific on abortion - Sununu's abortion ban is controversial and divisive at face value. It's absolutely something that can and will hurt him, but any sort of abortion ban is at best 50-50. Focus more on the deeper parts, like him forcing invasive ultrasounds and refusing to include exceptions for rape and incest. Aside from term, it's one of the strictest abortion bans in the nation. He may say that he opposes some of these things, but he signed the bill. This is his abortion ban and he has to take ownership.

7. Conman Chris - Sununu has gotten this far from his smiley, positive, Nice Guy FF image. You want to portray him as a snake oil salesman who is looking for a quick buck and political donations. You portray him as someone who will change his beliefs and sell us out for a quick campaign donation. You portray him as someone who will spread COVID throughout the state or force a rape victim to carry their rapist's baby for a vote. You paint him as a looter who is willing to take from us and our local communities and give to his donors and friends in the party. If he says he opposed these things, he's lying. He signed the damn bills.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Secretary of State Bill Gardner is resigning. This ends a 46-year long career at the post. When Gardner took office, some little-known attorney named Bill Shaheen had just chaired Carter's NH campaign, Gerald Ford was president, Chadwick Boseman had just turned 3 days old, and a cool little sports movie named Rocky was making waves across America. He's had an interesting career, to say the least.

Despite being a Democrat, everyone saw Gardner as a nonpartisan figure until around 2018. He's been seen as the defender of the NH primary, even getting re-elected by the GOP supermajority in these tumultuous times. Nobody really had an issue with him - even the Freedom Caucus-types. Of course, that all ended when he decided to serve on Trump's voter fraud commission.

This started Gardner's fall from grace with the NHDP. At best, he was a serial bothsidesist who took Trump's bad-faith commission seriously. At worst, he was quite literally a Democrat in Name Only who didn't believe in his party's right to vote. Either way, he was essentially a Republican on voting rights and became the de facto Republican candidate once he joined the sham commission.

In 2018, he got a challenge from failed gubernatorial candidate Colin van Ostern. The election (and SoS elections in general) are very strange. Here, we elect SoS through the state legislature, and Democrats had taken both chambers and had a 30-seat margin. Gardner won re-election by 4 votes.

Now, to be fair, most of this is because of the age of the legislature. Many of the Gardner Democrats were old and had been in politics as long as he did. Some, like state senator Lou D'Allessandro and state rep Barbara Shaw, have known Gardner personally for longer than some members' parents have been alive. They have long-standing political and personal connections to him. Despite these advantages, most saw Gardner's re-election as a major upset.

But I've always argued that Democrats blew this race. State party leadership had effectively coronated Van Ostern, and his status as an elected official and candidate played into pro-Gardner talking points about "injecting partisanship into the SoS office" and using the office as a stepping stone. CVO's campaign was essentially a legal pay-to-play scheme. He had a PAC that supported your State House run with the unspoken expectation that you voted for him. There was another candidate in the "primary" who had effectively endorsed Gardner after losing because the state party pushed him out for donorbux.

Either way, this marks an end to an institution in NH politics. I don't believe there will be a special election, and deputy SoS David Scanlan will succeed him. He has the same policies as Gardner, but has shown some token support for Democrats. It's unknown that he stays in.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/FostersDailyDem/status/1478397561149038598?t=SP3g_sOQYkCaWvi...

Likely R --> Titanium R

Looks like I'll be voting third party for governor too.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Truly amazing stuff, folks. After four years of screaming Orange Man Bad ad nauseam, you finally have a chance to attack Sununu's record...

and you throw it all away to embrace California-style Branch COVIDianism.

I am no COVID authoritarian (I got it eating out living my life!) but what is so objectionable about encouraging mask wearing indoors and vaccination? That’s all that article seemingly amounted to, which surprised me given your reaction

This goes far beyond encouraging mask-wearing and explicitly endorses a mask mandate. Berlin has had blanket mandates for a while, and Keene and Nashua just put them out as well. (Manchester doesn't really count, as the mandate applies to public buildings)

This is an unelectable and ridiculous position, considering we've been "back to normal" for nine months and been fine, even through the rise of Delta. Sununu's pandemic approval has been in the high 50s because of our return to normalcy. Bringing back mask mandates in response to the rise of a less dangerous variant is electoral poison.

You can't just try to shove the genie back in the bottle when he's been living fine outside it. I know I won't be the only one driven away by the "muh numbers" crowd.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Tom Sherman is officially exploring. He's been long-rumored to be interested and would be a fine candidate. Seems to at least be moving away from the COVID lunacy, so he has a chance. He's good enough to earn my vote to stop Sununu.

The new SD-24 is probably Mindi's if she wants it. It swaps some of the Republican south/western parts of the old district with the town of Exeter, making it pretty much safe if she's looking for a comeback.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Can someone tell me who won the election for Bedford School Board? I can’t find the results.

Campbell (the Democrat) won bigly. 2832-1293-856. Generally the town elections were a repudiation of NHGOP extremism, CRT, and 2020 discourse.

Which brings me to my next point...

Sununu is safe it's not good to go after Sununu and DeWine but Renolds, Abbott and DeSantis are vulnerable

It's a shame. They hit Sununu on his dismantling of public education, he becomes vulnerable. Instead it's all culture war stuff like Trump and abortion. And arguing for mask mandates during Omicron for some reason.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/TomShermanNH/status/1503313419939848193?t=8BuTOIr_CDsrx3QLqD...

Long-rumored but it's finally official

Normally I'd be a little skeptical but considering Dem wins on the local level this could work. Still closer to Likely R than Lean especially in this environment