The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[BluegrassBlueVote]

What are the other clues?  Well, his desire to play nice with the Republicans in the state legislature is widely seen as a desire to not take political risks, and be seen as bipartisan so that he can run up the score in his 2014 reelection campaign, and be seen as a candidate with crossover appeal when he vies for the presidential nomination.  (The same strategy that Hillary Clinton followed in her 2006 reelection campaign.)  And about that 2014 reelection campaign……as of a few months ago, Cuomo had already raised $19 million for that race…..a race which is still two years away:

http://www.newyorktrue.com/andrew-cuomo-campaign-finance-reform/

That puts his fundraising haul for 2014 about on par with all of the rest of the nation's governors seeking 2014 reelection combined.  Any leftover money from that race could then be rolled over into a presidential campaign.

"Running up the score" would be kind; it sounds like he's going for a first-quarter blowout. Reeks of Bush/Mauro '98 (although Cuomo isn't as strong of a candidate as Dubya).

[BluegrassBlueVote]

For a guy who some people here swear up and down is not interested in national politics this next cycle, Scott Walker sure is acting like he's interested.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/opinion/column/scot-ross-walker-s-on-campaign-trail/article_38e8ce0c-5e71-11e2-a53d-001a4bcf887a.html

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I just think the visit to the Reagan Library and the close association with the mega-donors make it obvious. Not saying '16 will be his cycle, but interest is there.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

^Bookmarked Prez16; thanks for the link. Although I'd say the biggest elephant in the room for Cuomo will definitely be the dreaded Kwanzaa Cake.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/nyregion/cuomo-raises-nearly-22-5-million-for-re-election-campaign.html?_r=0

War chest continues to bloat for Mario's boy. Like I said, it could be Bush/Mauro v2.0.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Ouch. He held no punches back on Huntsman.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

New hairstyle for Rubio. 2016 may be the last cycle before he looks like Rudy.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Hello, first time poster.

Seems to be a lot of Cuomo supporters on here. Sure, he has a great resume, but he's one of the poorest speakers I've heard out of all the names being out there. I doubt Democrats will be be going from Obama, a great orator, to Cuomo, nails on a chalkboard.

He's not so much a poor orator as he is an unpleasant speaker. His State of State address was pretty rousing, especially the rant on gun control, but his voice is very nasally and filled with Queens. I agree with Prez16's analysis that he's a New Yorker and you can never imagine him not being a New Yorker; he'd be a tough sell in a lot of regions. I'm having a hard time imagining him rolling up his sleeves and trying to be folksy at an Iowa fair.

However, I don't think it'll be a prerequisite for our next presidents to be equipped with Obama's soaring rhetoric; very few candidates are capable of that and voters will just be disappointed if they're expecting another guy to bring the house down with every speech. Rubio is probably the closest one to fitting that bill, but nominees are very rarely carbon-copies of the president they're replacing. You could argue that the nominees have been polar opposites of their predecessor for a while (Obama-Bush-Clinton-Bush-Reagan-Carter-Nixon).  

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Really?  He may be no Obama, but I actually think Cuomo is one of the better orators among the Democratic 2016ers.  Better than, say, Schweitzer, who just made me feel like the stage was too big for him when I watched his 2012 DNC speech.  Cuomo at least projects authority, and it's easier for me to imagine him as prez than most of the others.

Personally, I see a lot of Nixon in Cuomo. Terrific political acumen, domineering figure, and one of the last people you can imagine kissing babies in a crowd. He'll need a top-notch campaign team to package him to voters against more cuddly candidates, like Nixon in '68.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Someone needs to disavow, ASAP, the remarks from Perry and Santorum about the Boy Scouts' new willingness to be more inclusive. What a couple of smurfin' idiots. Marriage is a time-honoured tradition between a man and a woman—fine. But that doesn't mean gays should be barred from every single damn opportunity. They're people, for Christ's sake. This is actually infuriating. One, it just makes no sense to be against gays joining up. Two, we're trying to win an election, and more and more voters are seeing us as a bunch of extremists. How in the hell does taking a public stance like theirs help? I really couldn't care less if that's what they actually believe, but by God, keep it to yourself. Don't jump on it like it's some sort of opportunity. Smurf.

You're a smart guy. The GOP needs a dose of this common sense right now. Everyone knows Perry and Santorum are jokes, but the Democratic Party right now is very good at painting with a broad brush.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rove launches anti-Tea Party Super PAC. Getcha popcorn ready, folks.

http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/02/04/rove-tea-party-in-gop-civil-war/

[BluegrassBlueVote]

What were Dubya's "abilities" again? You know, other than being able to raise a ton of money.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

New York politics are intense. With how often Cuomo mentions his Sicilian roots as an explanation of his personality and mannerisms, you'd think he's trying to channel Michael Corleone instead of his political mentor (Bill).

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

Right, but isn't he in an impossible situation on foreign policy in any case?  The majority of the party is still fairly hawkish, but Paul's base within the party is not, and in fact presumably agrees more with Hagel on foreign policy than the rest of the party.

You're right about the problems that come from having to appease both his father's following and the Tea Party backing, but the hate seems to be coming exclusively from the people who use Bald Eagle avatars on Twitter with Benghazi 4 ribbons. You know, the "#TCOT #ISRAEL #FREEDOM" etc. crowd.

I've said it before, but I'm not so sure he holds onto his father's supporters as he continues to grow his national profile. It's definitely not a guarantee, at least.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

That was an excellent article on Cuomo; it really highlighted his brilliance as a politician and the dark sides of his ambition and DLC-esque triangulation. Even as a fan of his I appreciate reading an honest, level-headed critique like that.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I'm reading all of this Cruz info and I still can't believe it. He's been a senator for four months.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I'm reading all of this Cruz info and I still can't believe it. He's been a senator for four months.

I don't like this trend either, but it wasn't started by Pubs. Rubio and Paul are also frosh. So the only big-name Pubs who'll have served full terms in statewide office are Walker and Jindal, possibility of Ryan being the only one with national experience.

Oh, I wasn't suggesting that this was a strictly partisan thing; ambition doesn't have a party identification. However, I do think this is made more possible in the GOP given the Tea Party niche while there isn't a comparable wing across the aisle.

And Christie will have served a term-and-a-half by then.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Am I the only person here who thinks Christie is more likely to pass on 2016 than run?

I'd imagine so.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I think we're at the point where Walker should be considered top-five at a minimum in any GOP power rankings.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I think we're at the point where Walker should be considered top-five at a minimum in any GOP power rankings.

Agreed, but the polls don't reflect that yet.

True, but the polls currently say Biden has the second-best chances at the Democratic nomination. And I'd put every dollar I have to my name on the odds that Joe Biden won't be my party's nominee.

Walker's got the money, he's got the resume, he's got the ambition, and I think he can clean up Iowa. His star will begin to shine once Paul Ryan takes his name out of the race (I'd predict in 2014).