Conservative leadership election

[Famous Mortimer]

Between Raab and Johnson, I assume establishment Tories would prefer Raab?

Very similar dynamics to the 2016 GOP with Cruz vs Trump. You have a very right-wing candidate who nevertheless toes economic orthodoxy vs an outsider who is many ways more moderate but nevertheless viewed as a reckless "populist"

[Famous Mortimer]

Stewart was accused of running to help Gove and I don't understand that.

[Famous Mortimer]

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

[Famous Mortimer]

Under the new rules, the top FOUR candidates go to a ballot of the general public?

[Famous Mortimer]

So which candidates are against No Deal and which are for it?

[Famous Mortimer]

Johnson = a sort of mashup of Bernie and Biden, combines Bernie's being slightly out of line with the party ideologically and being hated by the party establishment with Biden's being loved by the public. Basically Bernie if Bernie was more popular

Hunt = Harris/Booker/Gillibrand, establishment figure who's not popular with the general public

Gove = Warren, somewhat out of line with the establishment but still acceptable to the establishment, moderately popular with the base

Javid = Booker/Harris, establishment figure plus minority

Stewart = Buttigieg, painfully establishment figure who is so aggressively establishment it almost comes off as quirky and the media tries to make him seem like an outsider despite his connections

Hancock = Bennet/Bullock/Delany/Hickenlooper/Inslee/Mouton/Ryan/Swawell, boring white guy with no reason to be running

McVey = Yang, has the same populist appeal as Bernie (Johnson) but even more

Harper = Bennet/Bullock/Delany/Hickenlooper/Inslee/Mouton/Ryan/Swawell, boring white guy with no reason to be running

Leadsom = Gillibrand, somewhat in touch with the base on social issues but maybe a little too much to make her a good general election candidate, some appeal in theory but not in practice

Malthouse = O'Rourke, kinda same as Buttigieg but more boring

Gyimah = Tulsi, weird ideology, parts of which are very out of line with the party, both the establishment and the base, not kicked out because they're a minority

[Famous Mortimer]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

In American Republican terms, he's Jon Huntsman.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stewart = Buttigieg, painfully establishment figure who is so aggressively establishment it almost comes off as quirky and the media tries to make him seem like an outsider despite his connections

Rory Stewart is more akin to James Bond

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/did-rory-stewart-spy-mi6-intrigue-surrounds-tory-candidate-leadership/

Rory Stewart is facing scrutiny over his alleged past as a spy after he denied working for MI6 before becoming an MP.

Buttigieg is CIA. The CIA just has more power than MI5/MI6 so they don't even allow it to become a media controversy.

[Famous Mortimer]

The problem with comparing political parties in different countries is what exactly are you comparing? Are you comparing stated platforms? Are you comparing their real unstated but c'mon everyone knows beliefs? Or are you comparing (and this would probably be the most accurate, honestly) the position their members occupy within the context of their country's class system?

[Famous Mortimer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

[Famous Mortimer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen. Although I still think it could, with pretty much everything else I predicted remaining the same.

[Famous Mortimer]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen.

What is the logic behind preferring No Deal to a Withdrawal Agreement that was both popular in Parliament and in the country at large?

1) it isn't popular in parliament or in the country.

2) If you're going to exit the EU, exit the EU. Withdrawal is Brexit in name only.

3) Get the issue over with. If you do fake Brexit, no matter what happens, Remainers and Brexiteers can claim that the economy failed/didn't fail because their option won out. If you do a real Brexit, there is no question. If the economy tanks, it unambiguously means Brexit was wrong and Tories should be punished. If nothing happens (and it probably will) then it unambiguously means that the Remainers are hysterical children who should never be trusted with power.