Luxembourg 2013

[Franknburger]

Unbelievable! Juncker was an institution. I expected him to last longer than Sepp Blatter

[Franknburger]

Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

Isn't that true of any language, though?

Not quite. In fact, for me as a North German it is easier to understand Dutch than Letzeburgisch (or Schwizerdütsch, for that matter). For ZuWo, as a Swiss, it is obviously the other way round. The differences between German dialects, especially the North German (Low Saxon) and the Southwestern (Allemannic) ones are quite strong, with High German serving as a bridge.

[Franknburger]

I have always heard that Social Democrats have never won election in LUX because everyone there is already pretty rich so there's no need.

Truth to that?

No; southern Luxembourg is very industrial (steel) and back when that was even more so, the LSAP polled the most votes on a couple of occasions (1951, 1964, 1974) though never won more seats than the CSV. Think it may have been a straightforward malapportionment issue, though don't know for sure. There was at the time also a comparatively strong (best result was 17% in 1951 and they polled double digits as recently as 1974) Communist party, which was also strongest in the south of the country.

Anybody having maps of the 2009 election? The best I could find on the internet was this page which links to the results per community (scroll down to bottom of page), but does not provide overview maps.

In general, the industrialised south appears to lean LSAP, with a few Communist strongholds (e.g. Rumelange 9.3%, Esch s/Alzette 7.3%). 
Linguistic aspects don't appear to play much of a role. Below, I compare the votes of those communities that, according to the 2011 census, rank first nationally in terms of a specific language spoken at home: Luxemburgisch (Consthum 83.9%, north central),  German (Mertert 9.1%,-east), French (Rambrouch 24.2%, west), Portuguese (LaRochette 43.4%, centre):

CSV:     40.8 / 37.3 / 42.8  / 36.9
LSAP:    19.1 / 28.5 / 12.1 / 18.2
DP:       16.4 / 12.1/  17.1 / 19.3
Green:    6.3/  11.1/  10.3 / 14.5
ADR:     15.3/   8.5/  13.6 /   5.4
Left:       0.5/   2.0/    2.4 /   3.6
KPL:       0.9/   0.6/    1.2 /   2.5
Oth.;      0.8/   --  /    0.7 /   ---

There appears, however, to be some geographical split for smaller parties, with the Greens being stronger in the East, and in communities with substantial EU immigrant population (Portuguese, Italians), ADR strength in the North-West, and DP in rural areas with low share of EU immigrants.

[Franknburger]

Alright, found maps on the leading parties per community on Wikipedia. Orange is CSV (Juncker), red is LSAP, blue the DP (euro-sceptic conservative)
2009 2004

The three LSAP communities in the South are Rumelange, Dudelange and Kayl. The region was a traditional centre of iron-ore mining and processing. While the mines have been closed, some metal-processing is continuing. Together, the three towns have some 30,000 inhabitants.
In 2005, the LSAP also took neighbouring Schifflange (pop. 8.500). It is furthermore comparatively strong in the district capital of Esch s/Alzette (pop.31.000, 2nd largest in Luxembourg, 28.2 % LSAP in 2009) and the city of Differdange (pop. 22,500, 3rd largest), which it took in 2004 but lost to the CSV in 2009.
The red community up north is Wiltz, county capital with some 5,000 inhabitants, and a strong labour union and anti-Nazi resistance history.

The two DP communities from 2004 are Preizerdaul (pop.1,500, DP 28.1%) and Schieren (pop. 1,700, DP 35.6%). Schieren is a suburb of Ettelbruck (largest town in the North). The only remarkable thing Wikipedia has to report about Preizerdaul is that they changed their official name from German to Luxemburgish (in 2001).

[Franknburger]

Alright, since nobody else seems to have maps, I decided to make some myself.

First, as orientation, a map of registered voters for the 2009 parliamentary election by community.



Total registered voters were around 225,000. Luxemburg city accounts for more then one-tenth of then (26,600). Nearly another 10% live in the city's suburbs.  Of the four electoral districts, the South comprises nearly 90,000 voters (40% of total), most of which live in a few cities close to the French border.  So these are the places where elections are decided.

The rest of the country is a lot of communities with few voters (in many cases less than 1,000).

[Franknburger]

And here are maps of the six largest parties.



The CSV's strength is that they are getting reasonable vote shares everywhere. They only passed 50% in a few, small communities. However, they also fell below 30% in only two communities. Even in the 'red' south. they regularly came in between thirty and forty  per cent.

The LSAP is relatively strong (25-40%) in the south, and also in a few larger towns up north. However, in 2009 they were held back by poor results in Luxemburg city and its suburbs.

The DA is quite strong in the north, south-east and in and around Luxemburg City. However, as they performed poorly in the densely populated, industrial south-west, they only finished third in 2009 at slightly below 15%.

The Green map is surprisingly balanced. They gained 13% in Luxemburg city, which is not bad, but only 1.3% above their national share. They also reached above 10% across most of the South. Their strongholds are the exurbs - small communities within commuting distance to Luxemburg City- where they regularly got more than 15%, in some places even almost 30%.

ADR is very much a rural and northern party, with neither much traction in the South nor in and around Luxemburg city. Obviously, anti-European rhetoric is not too popular in a city that is hosting a number of EU institutions (Parliament, Court, European Investment Bank).

Last but not least - the Left. Also a surprisingly balanced map. Few votes in several rural areas, but above 5% in a handful of other, equally rural communities, plus 7.3% in Esch s/Alzette, Luxembourg's second largest city. Whoever votes for them - they are not a classical industrial workers' party ...

[Franknburger]

Finally, a map of the leading party when CSV is excluded (it's too orange otherwise..)  The colours reflect percentages gained in 2009, not margins. In quite a number of communities, it was a three or four-party race for place two, with only decimals deciding on the ranking.



Visualises the LSAP's problems.

[Franknburger]

You sir win the Internet. I wouldn't like to abuse, but if you have the figures could you also make the Communists' one ? It would be interesting to see how it compares to dei Lénk's one.

Also, it should be noted that to this day, most of the cantons and communes just across the border from Esch or Dudelange are held by the PCF. So it's also a regional thing, due to the iron.

Avec plaisir ..

.. and also a good occasion to correct my misinformation in a previous post. While the Communists are strongest in the South, they nowhere made it over 5% in the parliamentary elections. [I erroneously reported 2011 local election results, when the KP in fact came out  strongly in some of the southern towns, however, competing only with CSV and LSAP].



Overall this is another of these balanced Luxembourg maps. There is a handful communists in every village, and a few more in the mining & metal towns. I would suspect an average KP voter age above 70, quite some of which having moved away from the industry towns to the countryside on their old age ..

Note that I had to adjust the colouring scheme to 1 % increases in order to obtain a bit more than a virtually blank map with 3-4 pink spots. Overall KP vote share was 1.5%.

[Franknburger]

In order to finish up with the Luxembourg mapping exercise, I have also prepared a map of the leading party in the 2011 local elections. The usual caveats of interpolating local election results to the national mood probably apply even more to Luxembourg than to many other countries:

- EU citizen vote: Almost 45% of Luxembourg's inhabitants are foreigners. This includes many EU citizens, most notably substantial Portuguese and Italian immigrant communities, but also employees of European institutions, and French / Belgian / German citizens residing on the Luxembourg side of the border. In each the three largest cities, Luxembourg city, Esch s/Alzette and Differdange, there were some 20% more registered voters for the 2011 local than for the 2009 parliamentary election, and no remarkable difference in abstention rates between both elections.

- Party representation: Most smaller communities did only have individuals, but no parties on the local ballot. Even in larger towns, there were often only 3-4 parties running. ADR, the Left and KPL only ran in Luxembourg city and a few larger cities in the South. Two communities north of Luxembourg City, including a traditional LSAP stronghold, did not have LSAP on the ballot and a (most likely LSAP-backed) local list coming in first.



Nevertheless, the 2011 local election results suggest some trouble ahead for the outgoing CSV / LSAP coalition, who in many places lost quite substantially in comparison to the 2009 parliamentary, and also the 2005 local elections.  Most on the pressure appears to be on CSV, while LSAP could regain some ground in its traditional southern strongholds.
DP, while remaining strongest party in Luxembourg city and some of its suburbs, lost around 2-3% there in comparison to 2005 - not an encouraging result for an opposition party on national level.
While not apparent on the map, the Greens were the clear winner in 2011. In three two smaller towns in the southeast (Remich, Betzdorf) they virtually tied with CSV for first place, while overtaking LSAP in several other places.

[Franknburger]

Below I compare results in the 2005 local, 2009 parliamentary and 2011 local elections for some communities:

Luxembourg City:
CSV             22.2     36.3    19.1
LSAP            16.2     16.8   15.9
Green          17.4      13.1   18.5
DP               35.4     21.4   33.7
ADR              3.9       6.1     5.0
The Left         3.1      4.4      6.5
KPL               1.1      1.3      1.5
others           0.3        --        --

Esch s/Alzette
CSV             23.3     33.8    19.2
LSAP            40.5     28.2    38.5
Green          10.0       8.3    12.5
DP                7.5       8.0      7.5
ADR              6.1      7.2       3.1
The Left         8.0      7.3     10.9
KPL               4.0       3.6      5.3
others             --       3.6      2.3

Differdange (South-West)
CSV             14.8     38.0    14.3
LSAP            23.4     21.6    22.6
Green          11.3      11.7    15.2
DP               42.5     15.0    34.0
ADR              4.0       8.1      3.8
The Left         --        3.3       5.3
KPL               4.0       1.5      4.8
others             --       0.8       --

Dudelange (South)
CSV             20.4     27.8     18.3
LSAP            59.8     41.9     53.9
Green          11.6     10.2     14.8
DP                3.8       5.9       --
ADR              4.6       7.2      5.5
The Left         --        3.9       6.9
KPL               --         1.6         --
others             --       1.7       --

Ettelbruck (North)
CSV             39.5     36.3    34.6
LSAP            33.8     22.9    30.7
Green          12.3     10.4    19.9
DP               10.7     15.0    14.8
ADR              3.7       8.2       --
The Left          --       1.5        --
KPL                --        0.9       --
others            --        1.2       --

Echternach (East)
CSV             34.3     40.4    28.3
LSAP            33.9     21.0    25.4
Green            --       13.7    21.8
DP               27.5     15.3    20.5
ADR               --        6.6       --
The Left          --       2.3        --
KPL                --        0.8       --
others           4.4        --       4.1

Grevenacher (East)
CSV             29.6     38.1    37.0
LSAP            19.2     18.7    18.1
Green           14.3    11.9    19.2
DP               36.8     18.2    27.7
ADR               --        8.0       --
The Left          --       2.1        --
KPL                --        1.0       --

Mersch (Centre)
CSV             27.8     39.6    21.7
LSAP            16.2     16.4    12.4
Green           23.5    15.6    29.0
DP               32.5     17.5    37.0
ADR               --        7.3       --
The Left          --        2.5       --
KPL                --        1.0       --

Takeaways:
a.) The national CSV vote has been very much a Junckers vote. Especially local DP voters, but also quite some local Green and, in certain places, LSAP voters have on national level voted CSV. The question will be whether Juncker can maintain his appeal, or whether voter fatigue with current leadership that has become obvious in the 2011 local elections will also affect CSV nationally.

b.) Lacking the Juncker bonus, CSV junior partner LSAP will most likely continue to decline. If they manage to stabilise their vote share in their traditional south-western strongholds, they may make it past the 20% mark. However - I have my doubts, especially when looking at local-level voting trends for the Left.

c.) In theory, DP as largest opposition party should gain, but local election results suggest otherwise. If they manage to turn the election into an issue election and not just a plebiscite on Juncker, they have a substantial voter reservoir to tap into.

d.) In principle, it can only go upwards for the Greens. Unlike the German Greens, the Luxembourg Greens appear to maintain a centrist focus (ecology, civil rights, education, combing family and professional career). If they steer free from a "tax increase" discussion, they may come out around or even above 15%.

e.) The  Left should gain as well, probably getting around 5%. ADR and KPL have stable local bases to tap into, but an overaged electorate, and may both lose a bit of ground.

[Franknburger]

Found some polls from last month, before the spying affair and the resignation of Juncker (source:http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/13417540). No data at national level. The polls were commissioned by newspaper Tagesblatt. I can't find which is the survey company.

Thanks for the data- The only poll I found was an even older one (April) done by TNS, which focused on approval of individual politicians and general trust in parties, without explicitly asking the "Whom would you vote for" question. But we are probably going to see a number of real election polls soon ..

National figures may be interpolated from the regional data by applying the overall distribution of eligible voters, which in 2009 was something like 40% South, 28% Centre, 18% North and 14% East. That should yield something like

CSV        33.5  (-4.5)
LSAP       18     (-2.5)
DP          18      (+3)
Greens    14.5  (+3)
ADR         7.5  (-0.5)
Left          6.0  (+2.5)
Others      2.0  (+/-0)

I haven't dug into the details of Luxembourg's apportionment system so far. It seems to be PR, but calculated separately for each region, so their 4% in the South gained The Left one seat (out of 23) there, but no seats in the other three districts. Such a system should give the larger parties (of which there currently is only one, namely CSV) some advantage, especially in the smaller regions (North & East).
In any case, the above figures suggest that the new government will again be CSV-lead, with the only question being whether LSAP or DP will act as junior partner. There might be a small chance of LSAP, DP and Greens forming an anti-CSV block, but, given Juncker's popularity, that should come close to committing political suicide ...