2013 Elections in Germany

[ERvND]

And what did the SPD do in 2009? Instead of highlighting their successes, they behaved as if they had been in opposition all the time. Their appalling 2009 result did not have anything to do with demographics (even though demographics are not working in their favour), but was simply due to the fact that nobody knew what kind of politics the SPD was standing for.

And Merkel? Lacking a vision of her own, but being excellent in sensing public opinion and building coalitions, she quickly grasped the opportunity to sell policies that were mostly SPD-designed as her own. Whenever the SPD shifted a bit further to the left, trying to keep their membership comfortable and stop further desertion towards Die Linke, Merkel (and a few other strategists inside the CDU) quickly moved in. In that process, she has abandoned a good part of the CDU's traditional base, and the real miracle is that no serious right-wing alternative has been able to emerge so far.

Your analysis is good, but it relies too heavily on personal developments, as in "the SPD leaders were inept, while Merkel was clever".

Actually, it's a structural problem: In grand coalitions, the bigger partner benefits, while the smaller one is punished by the voters. It happens (almost) always, not only in 2009. Surely it has something to do with basic human psychology. That's also why all sane SPD leaders want to avoid a new grand coalition at all cost. They know it would happen again, no matter how skillful they might act this time.  

[ERvND]

AfD appears to benefit from the recent discussion about the eventual need for another support package for Greece.

There is a strange "undercurrent" on the German-speaking web right now, to the effect that the AfD is actually much stronger and has a good chance to enter the Bundestag.

Of course, this could easily be a distorted picture, and some AfD activists spamming news-sites can do much.

Then again, there is a rationale behind this prediction: In the last elections, the CDU has consistently received less votes than predicted. Usually, these votes went straight to the FDP. The AfD, however, might be a new alternative for conservative/liberal/right-wing voters who don't like Merkel.

Any thoughts?

[ERvND]

Technical question: Should we have separate threads for the Hessen and Bavarian state elections, or stay with on big megathread?

I'm in favour of creating separate threads, especially one for the Hesse state election. It looks like this one will be the only exciting German election this year, but it will completely go down if it's pooled with the parallel federal election.

[ERvND]

We'll see how this translates into the next election polls

There will be a small uptick (if at all), then they'll fall back to pre-debate levels. Debates have no significance at all.

[ERvND]

The poll of polls numbers for Bavaria seem about right. My assessment of the parties:

CSU: Is virtually guaranteed to regain its absolute majority. Mind you, they fell only two seats short of an absolute majority when they were at 43%, so 45% should already be enough. I predict ca. 48%, though.

SPD: Ca. 19%. This will be perceived as a huge embarrassment to Christian Ude, while in reality, it will be a success. Without him, the state SPD would have fallen below 15% (as some early polls already suggested). This will also be the last time the SPD offered a credible candidate for Prime Minister. Next time, they'll nominate some unknown party apparatchik (again), resulting in 10-15%. The SPD's days as a major party are clearly over.

Greens: Ca. 11%. The federal trend may stall their progress, but they will clearly regain their position as third-largest party.

Free Voters: Ca. 7%. While they over-performed the polls last time, I don't see something like this happening today. Their main argument has always been "We are exactly like the CSU, without actually being the CSU." With the people back in love with the CSU, this attitude won't be convincing this time.

FDP: Ca. 3%. Bavaria is one of the very few states where the FDP's natural base is below 5%. Moreover, there are no reasons this time for tactical voters to switch their votes to the FDP. Their main argument, "We are the CSU's main opponent, that's why you should vote for us so that we can govern together with the CSU.", is utterly moronic and won't work. Ironically, the FDP's failure in Bavaria will help them federally, leading lots of loan votes in their direction.

Others: Ca. 12%. The "others" are traditionally strong in Bavaria, comprising not only the Left and the Pirates, but also "gems" like the ÖDP (a conservative environmentalist party) or the "Bayernpartei" (a Bavarian secessionist party), and, of course, Nazis, whereof the "Republikaner" are still shockingly strong in some parts of the country. All of those votes are wasted, and mainly serve the CSU's absolute majority.

[ERvND]

As for the SPD, there are rumours that Gabriel is in danger, even though he managed the party quite well (in my opinion). He's hated by the public with a passion, though, again something I don't really understand.

A "natural" successor would be Hannelore Kraft. I hope, however, she'll be smart enough not to do it. Over the course of four years, she'd be slandered, libelled and dragged through the mud by the media, to a degree you can't conceive of. It's only "save" to come into the limelight as soon as Merkel announces her retreat, and her successor is not as popular.

[ERvND]

Just voted.

In my small rural community, the results will be something like
CSU: 58%
Greens: 16%
SPD: 8%
Free Voters: 7%
FDP: 4%
Others: 7%

This is how I feel voting SPD in this place:

[ERvND]

Whereabouts do you live?

In the Southeast of Upper Bavaria.

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Yes. Many parts of rural Bavaria, especially those located in the metropolitan areas of big cities like Munich, have become very affluent in the last decades. Parallel to this, people and society as a whole has become more liberal and open-minded (decreasing influence of the church, higher academic education, influx from other states and so on). They are still rich, however, so they'd never vote for the SPD. In this situation, the Greens are more or less their only alternative. In consequence, the Greens have overtaken the SPD in many rural regions during the last ten years.

[ERvND]

So, you basically live only a few kilometers away from me ?

How far away from Unken do you live ca. ?

Ca. 50 kms away, I'd guess.

[ERvND]

Normally, CDU/CSU and FDP are like communicating vessels: If one goes down, the other goes up accordingly.

Even now, as the CSU is celebrating itself, they only won (back) what the FDP lost.

Normally, this should help the FDP on the federal level. This AfD thing, however, makes things a little bit complicated. I don't think they'll pass the 5%, but even 3% would be enough to disturb the usual CDU-FDP arithmetics.

[ERvND]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

That's a popular misunderstanding. If Bavaria had the British/American system, the whole landscape of political parties would be different. We would most likely see only one "left" party, or an "anti-CSU" block of all other parties, in order to maximise its chances in a FPTP system.

It's true that in this case, the CSU would still have won 150-160 seats today. On the other hand, it's doubtful it could have won in 2008 with its 43% result. So, while proportional represantation allowed them to hang on in a coalition government (and will likely do so for the centuries to come), FPTP would have done away with them five years ago.

[ERvND]

Underlines the impression of Schumacher's party as wannabe nationalists more national than all others. Even the CDU had the borders of 1937 in their famous "It's ought to be the whole Germany" ("Das ganze Deutschland soll es sein").

Why "wannabe"? In these days, the SPD was really more nationalistic than the CDU, by far.

Things can change. Sometimes, they do.

[ERvND]

Spiegel article on Steinbruck's campaign.

Again bullsh**t by the mainstream media. The truth is: It was the media themselves who killed Steinbrück.

When he was nominated, he was the second-most popular politician of the nation, and the only one who seemed to have a chance against Merkel. The media, supporting Merkel unconditionally, sensed this real quick, and so the slaughter began. Steinbrück was lambasted in a way that still makes me cringe.

Funnily enough, their only real argument was that he'd made money by giving speeches. But according to the media depiction, Steinbrück was suddenly responsible for everything bad in this world. Seriously, I expected them to "prove" that he had also been responsible for the Black Death and World War II.

This went on for almost two months, during which there was no other issue than "Steinbrück is so bad". When the hustle was over, he was finished, dead in the water. Could as well have ended his campaign by then. Mind you, this was before he even had a chance to make any "gaffes".

[ERvND]

What if both FDP and AfD succeed ?

I really hope the AfD will succeed. I do not condone their positions, especially the right- wing pandering. But a successful AfD would (at least partially) redeem one of the biggest disparities in the German landscape of political parties: If the SPD leans to the right, it will splinter on the left. After 2003, the SPD lost around one third of its voters, to the Greens, the Linke, and especially to non-voters. As it seems, this loss will be permanent, rendering the SPD unable to receive more than 30% of the vote nationally.

The CDU/CSU on the other hand, if it leans to the left, nothing will happen. Over the last years, the CDU/CSU adopted left-wing policies to an extent that has become ridiculous. You can really say these parties lost their inner core of basic beliefs - but nobody seemed to care. The reason for this, of course, is of a historical nature: No democratic, serious politician dared to establish a party to the right of CDU/CSU, fearing extremist implications.

Now, if the AfD managed to establish itself, it had the potential to grab 5-10% of the vote, mostly from CDU/CSU and FDP.

Unfortunately, it won't happen, at least not now. Conservative voters are, well, conservative, and that also means they don't like changes in the traditional party system. That's why I believe the AfD will have a strong showing, but won't make it in the end (ca. 3,5-4%).

[ERvND]

My final prediction:

CDU/CSU: 39-40%
This time, the relatively high numbers will hold. Given Merkel's enormous popularity, CDU/CSU has an even higher potential (around 45%), but FDP and AfD will eat into their numbers.

SPD: 24,5-25,5%
As usual for the SPD, their small surge in the last polls won't materialize into real votes. Their main problem is - again - that nobody has a real reason to vote SPD; so all that's left are some pensioners who vote SPD by tradition.

Greens: 9,5-10,5%
They are fighting against a big momentum, but in the year 2013, the Greens have stabilized at a level where their base voters already make up 9-10%. I don't think they will drop much lower.

The Left: 8,5-9,5%
Their heyday is clearly over, but former SPD voters are stubborn and will keep faith with the Left.

FDP: 7,5-8,5%
Still a big loss in comparison to 2009, but loan votes will push them over 5% easily. If it wasn't for the AfD, I'd see them at 10%.

AfD: 2,5-3,5%
A decent result, but far from reaching the 5%. German voters, especially on the federal level, are simply too timid and and conservative to shake up the whole party system. Moreover, Merkel's euro strategy is vastly popular, so no real reason for a protest vote.

Pirates: 2-2,5%
The hype is as over as it gets. They'll get their base vote, which is around 2%, and that's about it.

Others: ca. 3%


Result:
CDU/CSU-FDP: 46,5-48,5%
SPD-Greens-Left: 42,5-45,5%
Black-yellow reelected easily.

[ERvND]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

[ERvND]

Against widespread expectations, election night won't be exciting, but one of the most boring ever. FDP over and AfD under 5% will soon be clear, and the black-yellow majority will hold for the whole evening. You can just watch the 18 o'clock prognosis and go to bed afterwards.

[ERvND]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

No. I don't always defend the SPD leadership, but in this case, I have to.

If a red-red-green government was formed - especially in this situation, with Merkel as the only real winner of the election - the media outcry would be unimaginable. Many media have close ties to the CDU/CSU (especially the Springer Group, but also the private TV stations and a lot of local newspapers), while other independent national media were also very sympathetic towards Merkel. You probably can't conceive of the journalistic storm they'd unleash against a red-red-green government.

I still remember the situation in 2002, when the re-elected red-green government discussed some tax increases. The media response was unbelievable. Some went so far as to call for violent resistance against the tax hike. And this was only the red-green coalition, without Linke (back then, PDS) support.

Now, if they tried to "overthrow" Merkel after she almost got an absolute majority, it would be certainly perceived as a coup d'état, with even worse media response. I am sure there'd also be assassination attempts against SPD and Green leaders; some media would even condone this.

SPD and Greens want to govern for sure, but they are also not completely insane. Their leaders and members want to live normal lifes, without having to fear for their own and their families' personal security. So it's very sensible to rule out a red-red-green government.

[ERvND]

As a SPD supporter, and from a purely strategic point of view, I'd prefer a black-green coalition.

A new grand coalition, as has been explained many times, would probably lead to the final end of the SPD as a major party.

A CDU minority government, tolerated by the SPD, has some appeal. But the risk is far too high that Merkel induces new elections after a period of time, almost inevitably leading to a real absolute majority or at least a new black-yellow coalition.

Black-green, on the other hand, can benefit the SPD. I think that almost one third of their voters, and also some members, would immediately switch to the SPD. In the long run, Merkel would destroy the Greens as she did with SPD and FDP, and a big number of their supporters would come back to the SPD. Caveat: If the Greens go the FDP's way, they'd fall out of many state parliaments, bringing the red-green coalitions there to an end (not many states have the potential for a SPD-only government, as in Hamburg). Maybe they'd even fall under 5% in the 2017 federal elections, voiding every chance for a new red-green government. But still, of all options, I think this one is the best. 

[ERvND]

As a SPD supporter, and from a purely strategic point of view, I'd prefer a black-green coalition.

A new grand coalition, as has been explained many times, would probably lead to the final end of the SPD as a major party.

A CDU minority government, tolerated by the SPD, has some appeal. But the risk is far too high that Merkel induces new elections after a period of time, almost inevitably leading to a real absolute majority or at least a new black-yellow coalition.

Black-green, on the other hand, can benefit the SPD. I think that almost one third of their voters, and also some members, would immediately switch to the SPD*. In the long run, Merkel would destroy the Greens as she did with SPD and FDP, and a big number of their supporters would come back to the SPD*.

The problem is that the post works just as well with Greens and SPD reversed, and the Greens know this just as well as you do.

Indeed. I'm aware that black-green is highly unrealistic right now. On the other hand, the opportunity to become a cabinet minister doesn't arise too often, so I hope some Green leaders won't be able to resist the temptation. However, that's - again - also true for the SPD.

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Not so much. Green voters are normally quite well-off, so there seems to be some resistance against voting for the Left. At least the Left didn't benefit from the end of the black-green coalition in Hamburg. 

[ERvND]

Apparently, ca. 60% of SPD-members polled by Forsa are in favour of a Grand Coalition.

I understand 65% are against it.

[ERvND]

As a descendant of Sudeten Germans, I am very interested in this topic; I also hold the opinion that the history of eastern expulsion and western integration are still relevant today.

On the other hand, most of the refugee related voting patterns you presented here are not very convincing to me. Sure, there are some regions where you can see a connection, but then there are (possibly even more) areas where you'll find nothing.

The example of the refugee towns in Bavaria is particulary striking: If there is a pattern anywhere, it should be found in these places. But even though paladino tries to "save the argument", I think we have to admit that there is simply no pattern.

Maybe the expellees (and, most of all, their descendants, as only they matter numerically) have assimilated themselves to a degree that their voting (and living) patterns are no longer distinguishable from their environment.

[ERvND]

Just why, exactly, does Merkel need a coalition partner?  Is the idea of a minority government that scary for Germans?

Above all, there are historical reasons for that. During the Weimar Republic, most governments were minority governments, and Germans still remember how this ended up.

Personally, I don't think it should matter today, but the political elite is still scared by minority governments.