Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.
I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.
Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.
But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.
Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.
Yeah, at this point, it honestly seems more likely that the official Republican nominee would finish in fourth if Sinema and a Libertarian both made the ballot than it would be that the Republican nominee wins.