2021 College Football Discussion and Pick'em Thread

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End of the third quarter, and Iowa State leads #8 Oklahoma State 17-14.

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First off, the ranks of the unbeaten have shrunk by one, as Iowa State defeats #8 Oklahoma State 24-21.

Meanwhile, we've got an upset in progress, in Birmingham, as 24 point underdogs Rice, lead UAB 30-24 with just over two minutes to play.

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Despite not all games having been played this week, I'm going to try to predict the playoffs and other New Years's Six bowls again as of this week's games.

Peach Bowl: Wake Forest vs San Diego State

Fiesta Bowl: Michigan State vs Notre Dame

Rose: Michigan vs Oregon

Sugar: Oklahoma State vs Kentucky

Cotton: #4 Cincinnati vs #1 Oklahoma
Orange: #3 Georgia vs #2 Alabama

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Who was more overrated pre-season? Indiana? Clemson? Fake Miami?

Probably Clemson, given I'm pretty sure everyone had them winning the ACC easily, making the Playoff, and at least some prognosticators had them winning the National Championship.

I don't think anyone had Indiana doing any better than maybe the Citrus Bowl if everything went right for them, and Miami (FL) was predicted to make the ACC Championship game at best, but beating Clemson wasn't going to happen, and they would likely have ended up in the Outback Bowl or the Gator Bowl, or possibly the Fiesta/Peach bowl if their only losses were to Clemson and Alabama.

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Ohio State, because they're Ohio State and are better than Oregon and whatever garbage champ comes out of the ACC. Actually, if that happens, Cincy gets left out and their fans riot and the school claims a championship anyway.

But I still think Penn State will give Ohio State a fight.

I don't think an undefeated Wake Forest gets in over Cincinnati given how weak the ACC is.

A second Big Ten team, like Michigan State or the Ohio State/Michigan loser, or Oregon if they win the PAC 12 at one loss, or a third one loss SEC team, like Kentucky, might get in over an undefeated Cincinnati if they remain at one loss.

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Great schedule this week to make up for last week's poor one.

Michigan (As Dereich said, Michigan is the better team here. Jim Harbaugh wins this game and the Ohio State game, he could lose everything else the rest of the season, and still get off of the coaching hot seat)

Iowa (Yeah, the Hawkeyes didn't look good against Purdue, but all three of Wisconsin's losses- Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan have come to ranked teams at home. Their win against Purdue was at Purdue. Logic, therefore dictates a pick of the Hawkeyes here.)

Texas (Dave Aranda has done a wonderful job at Baylor again this season, and probably coached his way into the discussion about coaching vacancies at both USC and LSU, and their win over BYU was impressive, but the Bears do not have the talent on the field to keep up with Texas)

Pittsburgh (I'm totally looking forward to the Pitt/Wake Forest ACC Championship Game)

Virginia Tech

Iowa State (Win over a ranked Virginia Tech-which doesn't look as good as it appears at first glance-aside, the Mountaineers just aren't good enough to beat the Cyclones this year)

Georgia (This is Georgia's last serious test before the SEC Championship Game. While Florida is still a decent team, they are a sizable step down in quality from both Kentucky and Auburn. Speaking of the Gators, they've really underperfomed this year, after three New Year's Six bowls in a row. While Dan Mullen isn't going be fired, a bad season next season (the Gators draw LSU and Texas A&M as their SEC West opponents, and have Utah, South Florida, Eastern Washington and Florida State on their non-conference schedule) could make his job status a bit more dicey.)

Oklahoma (The Sooners are overrated, but Texas Tech is mediocre. This won't be close)

Clemson (Until Florida State shows me they can win big games, I will continue to pick against them. As for Clemson, Dabo Swinney is probably regretting not at least sniffing around NFL openings the past couple of years. Maybe he takes a look at some this offseason?)

Syracuse (Two mediocre ACC teams. I'll take the one not on a three game losing streak)

Nebraska (Despite having a losing record, Scott Frost's Cornhusker's have been a pleasant surprise, as I don't think anyone saw them beating Northwestern, or being competitive with Oklahoma, Michigan State or Michigan. They aren't going to make a bowl this season, but if they keep this progress up, they might just do so next season. Them beating Purdue is my big upset pick of the day.)

TCU (Moving to the Big Twelve almost a decade ago hasn't really worked out for TCU, and now the conference is falling apart...bad time to be a Horned Frog)

Appalachian State

San Jose State (Once again, taking the team not currently on a three game losing streak)

Ole Miss (Both Auburn and Ole Miss have been great surprises, leading a dogfight in the SEC West. This could still be the first year Alabama loses the division since 2017 (to Auburn). Are the Tigers the team to deny Auburn the SEC West again (remember, the Iron Bowl still has to be played)?

Kentucky (In my opinion, Mark Stoops has coached himself into consideration for the job openings at USC and LSU)

SMU (Cincinnati needs an SMU win, and a big SMU win at that. This will be the toughest test for the Mustangs until the Cincinnati game on November 20, but they should win this one. Also, the Mustangs's head coach Sonny Dykes, might be coaching himself into consideration for the job openings at USC and LSU).

Ohio State (Can't pull the trigger on the Nittany Lions, not after that nine-overtime embarrassment against Illinois)

NC State

Utah (Good God, the PAC-12 South is embarrassing. Here's hoping the next USC Trojans head coach gets them back to relevancy)

BYU (BYU isn't particularly great, but they are better than Virginia)

San Diego State (I'm wondering right now if the Group of Five will get two spots in the Playoff/New Year's Six. For this to happen, Cincinnati has to make the playoff, and San Diego State has to be eligible for an at-large spot (which will difficult as a group of five team. Since Cincinnati would be making the Playoff in this scenario, they aren't guaranteed a spot. Still, it wouldn't shock me to see an undefeated San Diego State in New Year's Six Bowl if Cincinnati makes the Playoff. As for the Aztecs, Brady Hoke would be a great hire for USC or LSU)

Stanford

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Okay, I'm adding picks of Maryland and UTEP. Is that all of the missing games?

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Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin shoots down rumors that he is considering the job opening at USC.

I can't imagine Tomlin denying this in such strong terms if USC (or LSU for that matter) wasn't interested in him, so there must be interest from USC...

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#24 Coastal Carolina pulling away from Troy as they lead 28-14 in the third quarter.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1453895883804786690
I’m surprised any conference would consider Liberty with the sexual assault scandal hanging over them.

Conference USA is a pretty good fit for Liberty, and given the penalties the NCAA gave Baylor were pretty toothless (i.e, non-existent), it's rather obvious a conference was going to scoop up Liberty eventually.

I'm more surprised by UConn football going to Conference USA rather than dropping down to FCS.

Conference USA isn't a fit for them at all, and while the Big East doesn't sponsor football, there are several FCS conferences that would be natural homes for UConn if they had chosen to drop down.

Off the top of my head, I think their football program would fit quite nicely in the Colonial Athletic Association and the Northeast Conference, with most other sports (especially basketball) remaining in the Big East.

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Because Conference USA is truly desperate. UConn football? I give the conference one more year tops.

There are a handful of programs that are worse, I suppose — not this season, but as far as long-term program outlook. One such school is in Las Cruces.

Conference USA would have better off reaching into the FCS ranks and picking up North Dakota State and South Dakota State than adding UConn and New Mexico State.

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Wake Forest
Army
Ole Miss
SMU
Miami(FL)
East Carolina
Texas State
Cincinnati (if the Bearcats keep playing like they have been, I might have to pick SMU when they play Cincinnati)
Michigan State
Oklahoma State
Auburn
Baylor
Penn State
Troy
Mississippi State (Arkansas's been freefalling lately)
Marshall
Kentucky
Fresno State
Old Dominion
Clemson
Texas
Nevada
UTSA
Arizona State

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If I were on the Playoff Committee, here's what my rankings would look like:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan State
3. Cincinnati
4. Alabama

Just out: Ohio State, Oregon, Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest.

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My guess as to who TCU will look at to replace Gary Patterson:

University of Louisiana Head Coach Bill Napier

UTSA Head Coach Jeff Traylor

SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes

Former LSU Head Coach Ed Orgeron

Wake Forest Head Coach Dave Clawson

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NY Express, you're missing a pick.  (Suggestion: count your picks before you submit them and make sure there are 25.)

Adding Oregon beat Washington (that is the one I'm missing, right?)

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CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Cincy
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma (!)
9. Wake Forest
10. Notre Dame

wow...

SMU losing this past week probably destroyed Cincinnati's chances of getting into the playoff.

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Tom Arth out at Akron

No clue who Akron could possibly hire. My guess is an assistant coach out of the Big Ten, possibly Michigan State Offensive Coordinator Jay Johnson or Michigan Defensive Coordinator Mike Macdonald.

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Also, we've got a possible upset in the Sun Belt tonight, as Georgia State leads 7-1 Louisiana, 3-0 early in the Third Quarter.

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Conference USA announced Friday that it will add Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State on July 1, 2023, as the league tries to replenish its ranks after having nine schools announce plans to leave in the past month.

The Conference USA overhaul might not be done. Mid-American Conference presidents were meeting Friday with possible expansion on the agenda and Conference USA members Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State as potential options, a person familiar with the situation told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because the league discussions are private.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32560304/conference-usa-add-liberty-jacksonville-state-new-mexico-state-sam-houston-state-beginning-2023

I can't think of what Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee brings to the MAC, as that's significantly outside of their geographical footprint.

They'd be better off convincing some combination of Eastern Illinois, Indiana State, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, Butler, Dayton or Valparaiso to move up from FCS level instead.

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It's not really an upset, but Boston College is running away with their game against Virginia Tech tonight at Alumni Stadium.

The Eagles lead 17-3 midway through the Fourth Quarter.

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Given Stanford is getting destroyed by Utah right now, and they only games they've looked good in were against USC and Oregon (and Vanderbilt, but even a school full of nuns can beat Vanderbilt), is there any possibility of David Shaw getting fired either before the season ends, or after the season? It's worth noting that the Cardinal haven't participated in a bowl game since the 2018 Sun Bowl....

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My best guess as to what the committee will do in next week's rankings:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Oregon

Just missed: Oklahoma, Michigan, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State.

[NewYorkExpress]

My best guess as to what the committee will do in next week's rankings:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Oregon

Just missed: Oklahoma, Michigan, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State.

JW: What is your logic for having Ohio State jump Oregon?

The Committee doesn't seem to be valuing the PAC-12 much at all. I would put Oklahoma ahead of Oregon too, if I were on the committee, but the Commitee doesn't seem to like the Sooners much either.

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Michigan
Oklahoma (Probably the hardest pick here and I don't feel confident about picking the Sooners at all, but given where they are in the playoff rankings, they need this win).
Auburn
Louisville
Indiana (At this point, for Cincinnati to have any hope to get to the playoff at all, they need both Notre Dame and Indiana to win out)
West Virginia
SMU
Memphis
Georgia Southern
Ohio State (Really tempted to pick the Boilermakers, but Ohio State is far better than Michigan State or Michigan at this point)
Minnesota
UAB
Miami(FL)
Georgia Tech
Texas Tech
Ole Miss
NC State (Wake Forest has been exposed for the frauds that they are)
Notre Dame
Arkansas
Texas (Why is this on the list? I get that we aren't doing Thursday Night's North Carolina/Pittsburgh game, but surely either of the South Carolina/Missouri or Arizona State/Washington games would have been more competitive choices for a pick'em...)
Oregon(See previous comment about Texas/Kansas)
San Diego State

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NYE, you've only picked 22 games.

Alright, I'll add Tulsa over Tulane and California over USC.

Also, I counted 23, with two missing, so if you could tell me what the third missing game is, that would be appreciated.