The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[NewYorkExpress]

Will Hurd to make a decision soon:

Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas was also in New Hampshire earlier this week – his fourth visit so far this year.

The former CIA spy who was the only Black Republican in the U.S. House during his six years in Congress is likely to launch a presidential campaign as early as next week.

https://articles.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-GOP-battles-heating-up-as-Trump-faces-new-indictment-51337241

But he already said so a month ago in previous interviews, and nothing happened...

Will Hurd is apparently doing his best Joe Biden circa 2016 impersonation.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1680380934112137216

He'd be better off in the Senate race, where he'd actually be the favorite in the Republican Primary. (I doubt he could beat Tim Kaine, though).

[NewYorkExpress]

If President Biden was to show actual signs of (new real) health problems, who do you think would be the first to get into the Democratic primaries to challenge Biden? Kind of like when Senator Eugene McCarthy challenged President Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

My guess is it would be some former U.S House member who has no plan to get back into electoral politics so doesn't mind annoying the Democratic establishment, but I can't think of a name other than maybe Stephanie Murphy.

It's likely he'd resign and allow Kamala Harris to run as an incumbent in this scenario.

[NewYorkExpress]

Manchin ‘thinking seriously’ about leaving Democratic Party

I suspect this would be in preparation for a run with No Labels.

I just truly don’t understand No Labels. Joe Biden isn’t Bernie Sanders for crying out loud. And with the people they might get to run, it would be three white guys with a combined age of well over 200. Who do they appeal to? Beltway people, McMullin voters?

"Give me attention."

Even if Democrats lose the Senate, both he and Sinema will not be missed by anyone. They will be remembered as the Joe Liebermans of the party and disowned.   

Manchin announces he’s running under “a West Virginia for Manchin” party

Manchin's probably got a better chance of pulling that sort of thing off than Sinema does. Even though he's terminally unpopular, it's not Democrats would run a serious candidate against him, and assuming Justice is the Republican nominee, it's not he's got some overwhelming popularity or something. Hell, if Mooney somehow beats Justice in the Republican Primary, Manchin might even be favored if he pulls this stunt. That carpetbagger issue would come back to haunt Mooney big time.

[NewYorkExpress]

The GOP actively wants Trump or someone like him. Everything non-Republicans think is a liability against him is actually an asset. After Trump isn’t around in 2028 they’ll likely coalesce behind the next Trumpian figure they find, probably Tucker Carlson if he runs (50/50 at this point) or maybe even Kari Lake.

The median 2028 scenario if Trump somehow loses 2024 is Hawley v. Harris.

Trump vs Harris.

If Trump wins it's Trump vs N/A because there's no way there'll even be a 2028 election.

[NewYorkExpress]

Chris Sununu has ruled out a third party run.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) on Sunday more firmly ruled out a third-party run for president in 2024 on Sunday, but said many will feel “politically homeless” if President Biden and former President Trump are on the top of the ticket.

“No, nothing I’m looking at.  No, nothing I’m looking at,” he told NBC’s Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” on whether he would make a third-party bid for the White House after opting to not run in the crowded GOP primary. “Look, I’m still working 24/7 to make sure the Republican Party is the best version of itself.”


“And that is it with yesterday’s news of Donald Trump, and a conservative that can fulfill on all the policies that Trump brought forward that we agreed with, but he just couldn’t get done,” he said. “He didn’t get the border done. He didn’t get fiscal discipline done. He didn’t drain the swamp. Those are great ideas. But let’s get a conservative in there that can actually do it.”

[NewYorkExpress]

Gavin Newsom officially puts any lingering 2024 speculation to rest.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to put an end to speculation that he might run for president in 2024, saying he's all in for President Joe Biden.

"I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run," Newsom told NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in an interview, adding that he looked forward to getting Biden re-elected.

"I think there’s been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect," Newsom said. "But we’re gearing up for the campaign. We’re looking forward to it."

He said his message to donors wondering if the nominee will be someone besides Biden is: "Time to move on. Let's go."