NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1480933383568084999

[NewYorkExpress]

Hochul has raised $21.6 million since announcing her campaign

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced Tuesday that she has raised $21.6 million since launching her gubernatorial campaign in mid-August, a hefty haul establishing her as the front-runner in the race’s Democratic primary.

Hochul’s campaign said it is going forward with $21.3 million in the bank and touted its five-month haul as “record-setting.” The campaign also drew donations from every one of New York’s 62 counties.

The fundraising haul underscores Hochul’s edge in the primary, which pits her against New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Thomas Suozzi, who represents a district in Long Island. Already, her campaign prowess is believed to have helped nudge state Attorney General Letitia James (D) out of the race and kept New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) on the sidelines.


Williams and Suozzi have not yet publicly disclosed their fundraising, but an adviser for Suozzi told The New York Times that he had taken in more than $3 million since launching his campaign in November and transferred another $2 million from his congressional campaign account.

[NewYorkExpress]

Wow. It seems like Cuomo may be gearing up to run for something this year. My guess is he runs for Attorney General.

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1497009103494803456?s=21

If I were Cuomo, I'd wait until 2025, and attempt to primary Eric Adams for Mayor of New York City.

[NewYorkExpress]

Does Cuomo have a path to the nomination? He wasn't far behind Hochul in that poll and has a huge warchest.

Sure, if the only voters who show up on primary day are men.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1504091037962227719
oh god

Cuomo is definitely running for something

Are we sure he's running for something in 2022?

He might be setting himself up to primary Gillibrand in 2024 instead.

[NewYorkExpress]

Major scandal brewing. Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin is under federal investigation for campaign finance fraud related to his 2021 bid for New York City Comptroller.

Federal prosecutors and the FBI are investigating whether New York Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin (D) played a role in directing fraudulent funds to his failed 2021 campaign for New York City comptroller.

His campaign advisers and the state Senate have been subpoenaed in the matter, according to The New York Times.

Prosecutors from the Southern District of New York have issued grand jury subpoenas seeking documents from Benjamin's campaign committee, paid staffers and consulting firms, three people familiar with the matter told the Times.


Prosecutors more recently began seeking records from the state Senate, where Benjamin previously served and represented Harlem prior to being selected for the lieutenant governor position by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) after she became governor.

Benjamin has not been accused of wrongdoing, but Harlem real estate investor Gerald Migdol, who last year was charged with wire fraud, aggravated identity theft and other crimes, was accused of concocting a plan to misrepresent or conceal multiple illegal contributions to Benjamin's campaign, the newspaper reported.

This has the potential to be very bad news for Hochul. It probably won't cost her the election (there's still time to select a new Lieutenant Gubernatorial running mate for 2022), but it's an easy line of attack for Suozzi and for Zeldin in the general election.

[NewYorkExpress]

Major scandal brewing. Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin is under federal investigation for campaign finance fraud related to his 2021 bid for New York City Comptroller.

Federal prosecutors and the FBI are investigating whether New York Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin (D) played a role in directing fraudulent funds to his failed 2021 campaign for New York City comptroller.

His campaign advisers and the state Senate have been subpoenaed in the matter, according to The New York Times.

Prosecutors from the Southern District of New York have issued grand jury subpoenas seeking documents from Benjamin's campaign committee, paid staffers and consulting firms, three people familiar with the matter told the Times.


Prosecutors more recently began seeking records from the state Senate, where Benjamin previously served and represented Harlem prior to being selected for the lieutenant governor position by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) after she became governor.

Benjamin has not been accused of wrongdoing, but Harlem real estate investor Gerald Migdol, who last year was charged with wire fraud, aggravated identity theft and other crimes, was accused of concocting a plan to misrepresent or conceal multiple illegal contributions to Benjamin's campaign, the newspaper reported.

This has the potential to be very bad news for Hochul. It probably won't cost her the election (there's still time to select a new Lieutenant Gubernatorial running mate for 2022), but it's an easy line of attack for Suozzi and for Zeldin in the general election.

Oh Kathy, didn't you or your team vet this guy properly? At least coming in fourth in that primary shows that he doesn't have that much support in NYC as well.

The question is whether we can expect any result here in the near future, whether there's substance to it or a nothingburger. I guess it would be better to drop Benjamin from the ticket or he withdraws. Wikipedia lists Assemblyman Ron Kim as "interested" in the position of lt. governor and I think he'd be a very solid pick. From New York City, a progressive and outspoken Cuomo-critic. And if diversity is important, he's Asian as well. As for the African American community, at least Tish James is running on the Democratic ticket for the de-facto second most important statewide office.

Personally, if I were Hochul, I'd offer the #2 spot on my ticket to either Suozzi or Williams to try and reduce the field running against me.

[NewYorkExpress]

Heard Cuomo is announcing tomorrow from someone who works for Hochul. No further details.

I hope no one signs his petitions and no one gathers them. I have doubts he will win the primary but that poll didn’t give me much hope.  We’re cuomo to get the nod he would be liability for Democrats nationwide. I wish there was a way to refuse him ballot access.

If he did win, I'm willing to bet he'd be impeached immediately.

[NewYorkExpress]

If I were Hochul, given this scandal, I would give serious consideration to dropping out of the race and endorsing Williams.

[NewYorkExpress]

If I were Hochul, given this scandal, I would give serious consideration to dropping out of the race and endorsing Williams.

Lmao, why should Kathy drop out and endorse a far-left lockdown lunatic when she's leading in the polls by more than 30 points?

She should learn from this experience and take care appointees are better vetted and move on. She's not even involved in any of the wrongdoings.

The only credible replacement candidate would have been Tish James.

Because this is almost certainly going to cost her big time in the general election, let alone a Democratic Primary (and I really don't want Tom Suozzi or Lee Zeldin being the next Governor of New York). The only reason she'd win is the Democratic lean of the state.

[NewYorkExpress]

Given Delgado was probably going to lose reelection anyways, this isn't really a bad move by Hochul.

It only stings if Delgado can't get on the ballot or can't win as a write-in.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/no-paperwork-filed-by-cuomo-as-ballot-deadline-to-run-for-ny-governor-in-2022-passes/3711895/

No Paperwork Filed by Cuomo As Ballot Deadline to Run for NY Governor in 2022 Passes

It sounds to me like he's either aiming for the Presidential race or the Senate race in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/no-paperwork-filed-by-cuomo-as-ballot-deadline-to-run-for-ny-governor-in-2022-passes/3711895/

No Paperwork Filed by Cuomo As Ballot Deadline to Run for NY Governor in 2022 Passes

It sounds to me like he's either aiming for the Presidential race or the Senate race in 2024.

There's no way he's delusional enough to think he could go for Prez.

He'll also have nothing else to do in 2024, and Biden is not going to get any more popular than he is now. Why shouldn't Cuomo engage his delusions of grandeur?

[NewYorkExpress]

Last night was the first Gubernatorial debate.

According to the New York Times, Hochul came away the winner. Neither Suozzi nor Williams did particularly well, but it doesn't look like Suozzi did any real harm to his candidacy. It looks Williams might have actually done himself some damage though.

That said, unless Hochul bombs in the next debate, or there is a major scandal, she should easily win the primary.

[NewYorkExpress]

Last night was the first Gubernatorial debate.

According to the New York Times, Hochul came away the winner. Neither Suozzi nor Williams did particularly well, but it doesn't look like Suozzi did any real harm to his candidacy. It looks Williams might have actually done himself some damage though.

That said, unless Hochul bombs in the next debate, or there is a major scandal, she should easily win the primary.

I agree with this assessment. Williams didn't come off a a serious candidate to me and Suozzi only attacked especially with his stupid NRA comment. Her response to to it was great.

I expect her to easily win the primary.

I don't know. Pointing out that Hochul has gotten A's from the NRA in the past could have been the difference between victory and defeat for Suozzi in a closer race, especially after the Buffalo mass shooting.

[NewYorkExpress]

Eric Adams to endorse Hochul.

Mayor Eric Adams is preparing to endorse Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday, three days before early voting begins in the Democratic primary, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The backing will give Hochul a boost as she competes against progressive activist Jumaane Williams, New York City’s public advocate, and Rep. Tom Suozzi, a moderate Democratic Congress member from Long Island.

[NewYorkExpress]

First off, earlier this week was the first Republican primary debate.

The big highlight here was Lee Zeldin and Harry Wilson going to war over whether either or both of them were NeverTrumpers.

Andrew Guiliani may have actually come off the best in this debate, sounding like an adult compared to the feuding Zeldin and Wilson.

Last Night was the second and final Democratic Primary debate.

Suozzi and Williams did a fair bit of damage to Hochul tonight with numerous attacks, but I think Suozzi torpedoed his own candidacy by stating he would accept the endorsement of former Governor Cuomo.

All in all, I think Hochul locked up the primary tonight, but Williams rebounded nicely and should finish a distant second with maybe around 20% of the vote.

[NewYorkExpress]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

[NewYorkExpress]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Archila winning would be wild, and would really drive home the complete and utter pointlessness of taking Delgado out of a competitive House district.

I don't think Delgado would have won reelection anyways.

[NewYorkExpress]

Random question: Who do you guys think Cuomo will vote for here?

I'm almost 100% convinced he votes for Suozzi. Definitely not Hochul in my view, because he kept underestimating her and wanted to dump her in 2018 already. Sources also say that before the resignation she was told to be off the 2022 ticket. Cuomo loves being center-stage and probably hates the fact that she has consolidated that much support in less than a year in office. And well, it's obvious he won't vote for Jumaane.

And if I had to guess, Cuomo will leave the Attorney General ballot empty and outright vote for the Republican in November. He'll never forgive Tish James.

I think Cuomo holds his nose and votes for Hochul. I doubt he's going to vote for a candidate who isn't going to win the primary in Suozzi, though I think he would vote for Suozzi if he had a chance of beating Hochul. I do think he votes for Reyna for Lieutenant Governor, however.

[NewYorkExpress]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.

[NewYorkExpress]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Rip

I freely admit to being wrong. It isn't the first time, and it won't be the last time.

[NewYorkExpress]

Zeldin might get to 44-45% just based on the political climate, but he's got no shot at actually winning in November.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

I think Hochul outright loses Nassau and Suffolk in addition to Staten Island, but she's going to clean house upstate.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a gard-right candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

Zeldin is from Long Island, so he should have strong regional support in both Nassau and Suffolk.

Richmond is much further to the right than both Nassau and Suffolk, quite honestly, and I'd be surprised if Hochul even comes within ten points there.