CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[NewYorkExpress]

Good to see Roby win, I hope she runs against Jones in 2020 (probably the best general election candidate in the GOP bench)

She won't win a Republican Primary statewide, not after her Trump criticism.

Kay Ivey would be the strongest candidate, but there's no way she's running (she'd be about Patty Judge's age during her Senate campaign in 2016), followed closely by Mo Brooks, Robert Aderholt, Bradley Byrne and/or Todd Strange (The Mayor of Montgomery).

[NewYorkExpress]

Good to see Roby win, I hope she runs against Jones in 2020 (probably the best general election candidate in the GOP bench)

She won't win a Republican Primary statewide, not after her Trump criticism.

Kay Ivey would be the strongest candidate, but there's no way she's running (she'd be about Patty Judge's age during her Senate campaign in 2016), followed closely by Mo Brooks, Robert Aderholt, Bradley Byrne and/or Todd Strange (The Mayor of Montgomery).

Are you just name dropping all the Alabama politicians you know?

No. I left out Del Marsh, for instance....and I'm convinced Roy Moore is going to try again, but he's not going to get anywhere.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991714234483421184

Well, if Manny Pacquaio can serve in the Philippine Senate, then we can have a WWE wrestler serve as Knox County Mayor.

[NewYorkExpress]

Since I had to actually look into these candidates for Tuesday's election, I thought I'd give my take on the candidates on my ballot.  In each race, I'm ranking them from most likely to least likely to win, based on campaign mailers, yard signs, TV commercials, and just my general gut sense.


KS Gubernatorial Democratic Candidates.

JOSH SVATY.  A former state legislator from west of Salina.  Only in Kansas would the top Democratic candidate for governor have a record of voting for increasing abortion restrictions.  (Then again, this is the state that gave us Joan Finney.)

LAURA KELLY.  The Senate Minority Whip, from the Topeka area.  She seems to be the establishment candidate, but I have the feeling she's running slightly behind Svaty.  Only in Kansas would the other top Democratic candidate have a record of voting for expanding concealed carry gun laws.

CARL BREWER.  As a former mayor of Wichita, he should be a familiar face to half of the state's TV viewers.  Unfortunately for him, it's not the half of the state where most of the Democratic primary voters live.  Here in KC, he's been completely invisible.

JACK BERGESON.  The most interesting thing I know about him is that he'll be eligible to run for president in 2040.

ARDEN ANDERSON.  Some farmer.  (Until I just looked him up, I didn't even realize he was from my county.)


US House 3rd District Democratic Candidates.

BRENT WELDER.  A political neophyte, he's the candidate who's been endorsed by Bernie Sanders.  Rumor has it that Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder has been trying to position Welder as his main opponent (similarly to how Claire McCaskill singled out Todd Akin 6 years ago).

TOM NIERMANN.  A private school teacher.  He and gubernatorial candidate Laura Kelly received the endorsements of a Republican state senator, who was then stripped of her committee assignments.

SHARICE DAVIDS.  A Native American, lesbian, and Obama White House Fellow.  She received the endorsement of the Kansas City Star, the main local newspaper.

MIKE McCAMON.  A corporate executive.

SYLVIA WILLIAMS.  I know nothing about her, but she's still been more visible than Jay Sidie.

JAY SIDIE.  Who?  Oh, yeah!  The 2016 nominee.

Please give us Svaty vs. Kobach, please give us Svaty vs. Kobach

If Kobach wins the nomination, Orman's vote share goes way up, because anti-Brownback Republicans probably aren't going to vote for him or for the Democrat.

[NewYorkExpress]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

Ing and Hanabusa winning is definitely realistic, but Gabbard losinng this isn't lol.

I would think Gabbard would get whatever pro-Sanders vote there is in HI-02, and that's usually who would turnout in a very low turnout election... Plus I still Hanabusa was a narrow favorite coming into tonight, though Ige winning wouldn't shock me after his much better response to the volcano eruption.

[NewYorkExpress]

I still it's possible Ward wins the primary outright, but I'll guess McSally 43%, Ward 37%, Arpaio 10%.

[NewYorkExpress]

So let me get this straight, Florida Democrats are going to nominate someone who is under investigation by the FBI?

Congratulations Ron DeSantis.

Once again the Florida Democratic Party proves just how incompetent they are.

[NewYorkExpress]

I wish the VRA of '65 had applied to New York. Too bad Shelby v. Holder eviscerated it. This is a joke.

Felder is up 54-46, and gaining. 43% in.

I wouldn't be shocked if some on the court went the other way in that circumstance then and said the VRA applied to religious minorities as well, specifically to protect people like Simcha Felder and Dov Hikind.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think it's fair to say that almost the entire IDC losing their seats over caucusing with Republicans for extra perks, pay and power is going to put the fear of god into current and future Democratic lawmakers, at least for a good long while, so probably no more traitor factions.

Nothing scares lawmakers quite like fear of losing their seat

True, though Savino (and of course Felder) will be empowered to continue supporting the Republicans.

Did Savino have an especially pathetic opponent? I'm surprised she won by such a wide margin. Felder isn't surprising, though.

Well Felder is going to do what Felder is going to do, but the rest, I don't think it is a given that they will just support Rs full-time or something. I think it's equally if not more possible that they try and regain the trust of their constituent Democrats so they don't face any more primary opponents, and that involves being model Democrats. Otherwise there is nothing stopping another wave of opponents in 2020 and beyond. And since these are safe D districts, they can't just switch to the Republican Party. They have a big incentive to stop this tomfoolery, regardless of how butthurt they may be over this.

Felder mainly backed the GOPers because that sent more $$ to his district. Since Democrats are very likely to take the NYS after the 2018 elections, he'll switch in order to bring home more bacon.

Felder will continue to caucus with the Republican since his Orthodox Jewish base opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and supports perks for yeshivas, like Felder, and he won't want to disappoint them by joining a party that does the opposite of all of those things.