If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip? (user search)

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If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip? (search mode)

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Poll

Question:

Given a D-Senate, what's the probability it arose due to appointment/special election/party switch?

#1 0-10%		5 (12.5%)
#2 10-20%		1 (2.5%)
#3 20-30%		2 (5%)
#4 30-40%		4 (10%)
#5 40-50%		3 (7.5%)
#6 50-60%		3 (7.5%)
#7 60-70%		2 (5%)
#8 70-80%		8 (20%)
#9 80%-90%		7 (17.5%)
#10 90-100%		5 (12.5%)

Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 40

Author

Topic: If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip? (Read 2835 times)

Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,172

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Re: If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip?

« on: January 12, 2017, 09:37:28 AM »

Either McCain or Grassley dies and the Dem wins the special election on the midterm, or Dems pick up AZ/NV, keep everything they have, and Collins pulls a Jeffords.

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Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,172

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Re: If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip?

« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2017, 04:49:49 PM »

Quote from: Malcolm X on January 15, 2017, 02:01:16 PM

The only shot is if Collins runs for Governor in 2018 which - while not impossible - seems unlikely.

she'd have to win, and then she'd probably appoint a GOP Placeholder

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