Hindsight Is 2020

[Blackacre]

Saturday, February 2nd, 2019



Americans are sick of having a man as President who only pretends to care about them, a man who claims to be the voice of the people while giving himself and his cronies massive tax cuts and expects the rest of us to pay for them. I’ve spent my entire life fighting people like Donald Trump: as a consumer advocate, as a Senator from the great state of Massachusetts, and now, as a candidate for President of the United States of America!

Speaking at Harvard University, the school where she once taught classes, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren became the first declared candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Election. Absolutely everybody saw this coming; she had spent plenty of time in next-door New Hampshire, was a darling of the left, fought President Trump using everything she had as a Senator, and was a speculated candidate in 2016 that was cleared away to make room for Hillary Clinton. In the weeks and months after Trump’s upset victory many liberals groaned that someone like Warren could have easily done what Clinton had failed to do that year.


It may seem obvious now, but you know what they say: Hindsight is 2020.


Next time: A background on Trump’s first 2 years that’s both way too brief and way too long!
(note: once I have multiple declared candidates I'll be doing primary polling. I'll include suggestions for hypothetical candidates who may or may not take the plunge)

[Blackacre]

And so it begins.

Yup! I've been bugging you about this for a week, it's about time it actually bears fruit!

[Blackacre]

Background: The Trump Years


President Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on January 20th, 2017, and immediately got to work on his agenda. A scant 8 days later, the Republican-controlled Congress sent President Trump his very first bill: a gutting of Obamacare passed through reconciliation. The bill kept the ban on denying coverage to pre-existing conditions and allowing young people to stay on their parents’ plan until the age of 26, but removed the individual mandate and medicaid expansion that had been at the core of the bill. This caused healthcare costs to rise faster than it had been under the full ACA. More on Trump’s relationship with Congress in a bit; first we must cover what he did on his own.


To the surprise of many, Trump was able to implement tariffs on goods made overseas on his own, without Congress. While it was nice for grandstanding on trade, any jobs that were coerced into coming back to the USA were offset by the price hike the tariffs brought. The economy soon slowed to a crawl. While his advisors were able to get him to back down from his initial stance on NATO, the world would have to get used to a United States that was a lot friendlier to Russia. Assad’s government quickly stabilised, but President Trump has gained no ground against ISIS. Progress the US made in restoring its image under the Obama years was reversed within the first six months of Trump’s Presidency, except with Russia and Syria. Trump’s Muslim ban took the form of banning immigration from several majority-Muslim countries, which sparked protest throughout the nation.


On the domestic front, Trump’s first 100 days proved complicated. Congressional Democrats were united against many parts of Trump’s agenda. This applied double in the Senate, where Democrats enjoyed crossover votes from Collins, Sasse, and Paul quite frequently, and occasionally Sen. Flake. Majority Leader McConnell, under pressure to end the filibuster forever, chose not to in the name of preserving the institution of the Senate. After all, that institution was worth more to McConnell than Trump’s infrastructure bill and maternal leave plan, and the budget was already immune to the filibuster. The Wall languished in the Senate, and while President Trump campaigned across the nation to try to strongarm Democratic Senators into relenting on the filibuster, they did not.


President Trump was easily able to get his tax plan through, constituting a massive tax cut for high earners and a raise in taxes for lower earners. Predictably, the economy suffered for it, and the deficit began to swell. The true problem came in the form of Medicare. Opposition groups quickly mobilised to, if nothing else, prevent Paul Ryan’s medicare-killing, medicaid-killing budget from becoming law. Just like with Social Security in 2005, it worked. The budget Trump signed into law left social welfare programs completely untouched.


The biggest fight came over the Supreme Court. Obviously Garland would not be renominated, but a fight with Senate Democrats ended in the compromise candidate Charles T. Canady being nominated and ultimately confirmed. He mostly voted the way Scalia would have, the compromise being his relatively advanced age.


His Presidency was also plagued by scandal. He was never quite able to escape the cloud of Russia interfering with the election, and conflicts of interest between the Trump White House and the Trump organisation were widespread. His lack of experience showed; while things went well initially, over time it became clear how terribly he ran his White House. Each scandal sapped away at his approval ratings and hampered his ability to govern, and they affected all sorts of federal departments. Appointing as cabinet members people like Giuliani, Gingrich, and Palin was a recipe for disaster.


Next time: The second and third of many Democrats follows Warren’s lead and enters the fray!
(I'm going to be off the grid this weekend, so the next update will be Monday)

[Blackacre]

(surprise! I got back a little sooner than I thought I would. Enjoy the update, and if you leave a comment I'll appreciate it.)

Tuesday, February 12th, 2019


I’m running for President because I want everybody in America to know that they have a place here. Every day I see the people of the city I love so much, and every day I see the fear in their eyes. Wondering if they’ll be the next to be deported. Wondering if they’ll be on the evening news because of an encounter with a police officer who wrongly thinks they’re dangerous. Donald Trump promised to bring law and order to this country, but what has become painfully clear is that “law and order” does not mean safety and security for our people. For so many of us, it means the opposite.

Well, somebody was going to use Lincoln’s Birthday to announce a Presidential run, and it turned out to be New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, known during the Trump years for going directly against the President’s Law and Order rhetoric by making reforms to his city’s criminal justice system. While it made him a rival of the NYPD, it also made him a darling to many on the left.


If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?*
Mayor de Blasio: 17%
Sen. Warren: 16%
*The polls are about as reliable as you would expect them to be in February the year before the election. While they give a decent idea about the state of the race, they’re no science*


de Blasio and Warren were both nationally recognised and highly expected to run this year, but the third contender... was not.


Thursday, February 14th, 2019


For too long I have witnessed a country turning to hate because of President Trump’s actions. I’ve done what I can to help Oregon rise above the example set in Washington, and it’s safe to say I’ve had some success, but you cannot solve a problem without taking out its source. That is why I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States of America!

The third declared candidate, and the first Governor to do so, Governor Kate Brown of Oregon made a little history as the first openly LGBTQ candidate for a major party’s nomination for President. Executive experience, a high approval rating back home, and distance (both physical and political) from Washington DC give her strong selling points, but Gov. Brown was initially hindered by her low name recognition outside of her home state.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 18%
Mayor de Blasio: 16%
Gov. Brown: 10%

Next time: We take another look back, this time at the 2017 elections in New Jersey and Virginia!

[Blackacre]

Background Part 2: 2017

Trump's policies hadn’t taken full effect by November of 2017. President Trump’s twitter rants were few and far between, and while the economy wasn’t great at this point, Trump was able to keep his approvals above 40 for most of the year. This still wasn’t a great position for the Republicans to be in for the Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial elections.

Virginia Gubernatorial:
Lt. Gov Ralph Northam: (D) 52%
Ed Gillepsie: (R) 45%

Democrats made gains in the VA legislature, but not enough to take over either the House of Delegates or the General Assembly.


New Jersey Gubernatorial:
Phil Murphy: (D) 56%
Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno: (R) 41%

Democrats increased their control over the New Jersey legislature.


Current map of Gubernatorial control:

D: 17 (+1)
R: 32 (-1)
I: 1


Next time: Something else happens in 2017 that we need to look at!

[Blackacre]

December 17th, 2017

The Supreme Court handed down a decision that affected millions of Americans. In the case ACLU v. Sessions, the Court ruled 5-4 that the Muslim Registry created by Attorney General Jeff Sessions on the orders of President Trump was unconstitutional because it violated the 1st Amendment through religious discrimination. Justice Kennedy sided with Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan while the new justice Canady sided with the conservatives.

Through this ruling, the court forced the administration to shut down the registry that had been occurring since March. Protestors were already making a consistent effort to shut it down by swarming registration offices, and appeals courts weren't very friendly to it either. With this decision, President Trump's Muslim registration plan died. He would have to get a similar law passed by Congress, and even then he would have to replace another Supreme Court Justice for it to stick.

The President complained in a series of tweets about biased judges, leading some people to worry that he wouldn't abide by the ruling, but thankfully that didn't actually happen.

Next time: We flash back forward to 2019 as two more Democrats announce their candidacy!

[Blackacre]

Monday, February 25th, 2019



We are living in a world in which nothing you say or do is private. For the supposed purpose of keeping us safe, our government has for too long been spying on its own people, and under our current President it’s taken a turn more dangerous than I could have thought. We need somebody to stand up to the civil liberties of our people, from the Muslim hoping that each day isn’t the day the President gets his way on creating a registry for people like him to the small business owner in my home state whose life would be ruined if a government mishap caused his personal info to leak. We need, more than ever, a President willing to rein in the surveillance state, and I believe I am the only one willing to do it!

A fierce defender of Civil Liberties during both the Obama and Trump years, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden was the second Oregonian to become a candidate for President. His civil libertarian streak certainly set him apart from his rivals, earning him a solid base of support.
 
If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 18%
Sen. Wyden: 16%
Mayor de Blasio: 14%
Sen. Franken: 13%
Gov. Brown: 9%

March has just begun, and our five declared candidates are: A liberal lion seen by the left in the same esteem as Bernie Sanders, the Democrats' only non-hypocritical civil libertarian, a famous mayor known for his attempts to address the racial divide in his city, a former SNL comedian turned workhorse Senator, and a bisexual governor with tragically little name recognition. These five, however, don't even scratch the surface of the Democratic field we're about to see. With Hillary Clinton out of the picture, the old establishment in tatters, and Bernie Sanders bowing out, the Democratic field is wide open for any candidate who thinks they have what it takes to stop The Donald. And given what happened a scant four months prior, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic.

Next time: We take a look at the 2018 Congressional Elections!

(note from the author: for some reason my images keep failing to appear on the page. I have to modify my posts to get the images working again and even then it only lasts so long. Does anyone else have this problem? Anyone know of a way I can fix it? Without the images it's much harder to show who I'm quoting at a given time.)

[Blackacre]

Background Part 3: 2018 Congressional Elections

By 2018, things were looking worse. The National Debt was 22 Trillion Dollars due to a ballooned deficit, unemployment hovering around 8.5%, and prices were high due to the Trump Tariffs. The 2018 Midterms were upon us.

I’m only covering 13 Senatorial races that show more interest, though let me know if you want me to detail a race that’s not covered here. And don’t worry, Gubernatorial races are coming soon!

edit: also doing a couple of safe seats with retirements.

Texas:
Democrats saw Ted Cruz’ Texas seat as a mouthwatering pickup opportunity in early 2018. Both Castro brothers declined to run for it, leaving Rep. Beto O'Rourke to take the plunge. His dream of unseating Cruz did not end well for him.

Sen. Ted Cruz: (R) 54%
Rep. Beto O'Rourke: (D) 42%


Indiana:
Rep. Marlin Stutzman gave the Senate run another go, and this time locked up his party’s nomination to take on Sen. Donnelly. Donnelly won easily.

Sen. Joe Donnelly: (D) 52%
Rep. Marlin Stutzman: (R) 47%


Arizona:
Sen. Flake had high approvals in his state, but not so much among Arizona’s Republican Party. State Rep Kelli Ward challenged Flake for the nomination on the grounds of his opposition to The Wall and other Trump Administration proposals. She succeeded in an upset, in a night that shocked and saddened close to all of Flake’s colleagues.

The Democrats nominated Astronaut and husband of Former Rep. Giffords, Mark Kelly. In a close race that came down to the wire, Kelly picked up the seat for the Democrats. Flake’s refusal to endorse Ward didn’t exactly hurt Kelly, especially because it helped him run ads contrasting Flake’s senatorial record with Ward.


Mark Kelly: (D) 49%
State Rep Kelli Ward: (R) 48%


Missouri:
The state’s Attorney General, Josh Hawley, won the Republican Nomination to challenge Sen. McCaskill. The race turned out to be one of the most hotly contested and closely watched battles in the country, but in the end, McCaskill won re-election to a third term.

Sen. Claire McCaskill: (D) 52%
MO Attorney General Josh Hawley: (R) 45%


Wisconsin:
Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch won the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin for the Senate seat. What was a GOP target early in the year turned out to be a dud, in part because of how strongly Wisconsin turned against the GOP.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin: (D) 53%
Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch: (R) 42%

Nevada:
One of the few pickup opportunities on this map, the Democrats nominated Rep. Dina Titus to take on Sen. Dean Heller. Nevada’s growing Democratic lean and the still-working Reid Machine propelled Titus to a narrow victory.

Rep. Dina Titus: (D) 50%
Sen. Dean Heller: (R) 48%


Pennsylvania:
Bob Casey faced off against Rick Santorum in a rematch. Santorum improved on his 2006 margin.

By 2 points.

Sen. Bob Casey: (D) 57%
Former Sen. Rick Santorum: (R) 42%


West Virginia:
Joe Manchin’s Republican challenger was Rep. David McKinley. The last Dixiecrat easily won re-election. Despite being from a heavy Trump state and opposing many of Trump’s proposals, Manchin remained very personally popular.

Sen. Joe Manchin: (D) 60%
Rep. David McKinley: (R) 38%


Florida:
Sen. Bill Nelson ran against Carlos Beruff, who won the GOP Nomination, for a potential 4th term in the US Senate. Like the 3 times before, he cruised to victory.

Sen. Bill Nelson: (D) 54%
Carlos Beruff: (R) 45%


Ohio:
Governor John Kasich entered the race and locked up the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown. He began the race with a 15 point lead over Brown, causing the Republicans to rejoice over an easy pickup against a liberal Democrat.

As time passed, and Trump became more unpopular, Kasich slipped in the polls. He was able to distance himself from Trump decently, seeing as how he never endorsed Trump in 2016, but a good chunk of the economic woes of Ohio came from Trump’s tax plan, which Kasich never opposed. The race went from Safe R to Likely R to Lean R to tossup by election night, and when it was all over...

Sen. Sherrod Brown: (D) 48.9%
Gov. John Kasich: (R) 48.1%

Kasich got the Evan Bayh treatment.


Michigan:
Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Gov. Rick Snyder faced off for Senior Senator Stabenow’s Senate Seat. (Try saying that 3 times fast) The race was a complete disaster for Snyder.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow: (D) 58%
Gov. Rick Snyder: (R) 38%


Montana:
Former Governor Marc Racicot was initially the favourite to take down Sen. John Tester in this election. However, like several other races this year, the incumbent Democrat made a comeback to win the election.

Sen. John Tester: (D) 50%
Fmr. Gov. Marc Racicot: (R) 46%


North Dakota:
State Rep. Rick Becker won the Republican nomination to take on Heidi Heitkamp. Like with the case in Montana, Becker started the race out as a favourite, but by election day it was clear that Heitkamp would secure for herself a second term.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp: 51%
State Rep. Rick Becker: 48%

California:
Diane Feinstein retired, allowing President Pro Tempore of the California State Senate Kevin de León to move up in the world.

State Senator Kevin de León: (D) 60%
Carly Fiorina: (R) 40%

Delaware:
Tom Carper retired, and the primary ended up going to Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, who easily won herself a senate seat.

Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long: (D) 71%
State Senator Bryant Richardson: (R) 29%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin chose to retire rather than seek election to a 3rd term. The primary ultimately went to the state's former governor, Martin O'Malley.

Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley: (D) 59%
Fmr Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino: (R) 39%

New Jersey:
Bob Menendez retired. The election came down to Republican Thomas Kean Jr vs Democrat Frank Pallone. Think of this race as like 2014 Kentucky in reverse. Lots of hype, but nothing to show for it.

US Rep Frank Pallone: (D) 54%
State Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean Jr: (R) 44%

Utah:
Orrin Hatch retired. In a contentious primary, Former Governor and Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman won the Republican nomination and then glided to an easy win.

Fmr Gov./Fmr China Ambassador Jon Huntsman: (R) 79%
Fmr Rep. Jim Matheson: (D) 20%

Class 1 Senate After 2018:

(30% denotes pickup, 60% denotes hold)

D: 50 (+2) (counting King, as Sanders is officially a Democrat now)
R: 50 (-2)

Republicans maintained control of the Senate, but only through Vice President Pence’s tiebreaking vote. 2018 was a disaster for Senate Republicans, who probably would have won at least 7 more races than they did if not for the unpopularity of President Trump and his policies.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats swept out incumbent Republicans across the nation, picking up a total of 33 seats. These included most of the seats the Democrats won in 2012 but later lost, but also in previously “lean Republican” districts in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, and elsewhere. The gerrymandered House backfired, and in 2017 Paul Ryan became Minority Leader to Speaker Steny Hoyer and his 227-member caucus. It was a slim majority, but given Republican gerrymandering, it was a solid accomplishment.

(Yes, I know I changed the identity of the Speaker twice, I am so sorry)

Next time: We head into March, for another few announcements about the 2020 Presidential campaign! After that we'll revisit 2018 for the State-level elections.
(author's note: again, I missed a fair few senate races. If there's any that would have interested you, let me know and I'll add them! Oh and happy thanksgiving!)

[Blackacre]

State Rep Helen Riehle challenged Sanders in the Vermont Senate race. Sanders actually ran as a Democrat this time instead of a democratic-caucusing Independent (I just edited my above post to reflect this) and just destroyed Riehle.

Sen. Bernie Sanders: (D) 74%
State Rep. Helen Riehle: (R) 20%

[Blackacre]

Thursday, March 14th, 2019

Donald Trump said he wanted to make America great again, but the only thing he’s made great is himself and his cronies. I’ve seen the damage the President’s done over the past two years. Every day he’s in office, the damage he does to our country grows. That’s why I’m running for President, so we can reverse course and put America on the right track once more!

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker became the sixth Democrat to enter the race, and it’s not even Spring yet! The same star power that elevated Booker to his Senate seat continues to serve him, though Warren took the chance to paint him as a tool of the Democratic establishment that messed up 2016 so badly.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Wyden: 14%
Sen. Booker: 13%
Mayor de Blasio: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Gov. Brown: 10%


Saturday, March 16th, 2019

I have done everything in my power as Governor of New York to ensure that as many people as possible are safe. Thanks to the hate crime hotline, more New Yorkers than ever feel like we have their back when they face bigotry and violence. It breaks my heart to see the damage President Trump has done to our nation, economically but especially morally. We need a President who sets the example for the nation, not a President who does everything that a decent person shouldn’t, and I would like the opportunity to become that President!

Not one to be outdone by his rival the mayor, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo entered the race for President. He has made some strides in his state, but the spectre of corruption still hung over him like a bad stench.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Wyden: 14%
Sen. Booker: 13%
Mayor de Blasio: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Gov. Brown: 10%
Gov. Cuomo: 8%


Monday, March 19th, 2019


”I’m very sorry Senator Sanders, but since you’re on the show I have to ask, are you running for President again?”

*laughs*”No, I won’t be running for President this year. I simply don’t have the energy that I used to, and I think it’s time for somebody new to become the face of the opposition to big money in politics, to income being concentrate in the top 1%, to major tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. Chairman Ellison has made that the cause of the Democratic Party, and it’s the cause of many of the candidates we’ve seen so far. I’m very impressed with the direction the Democratic Party has taken.

In an interview with Rachel Maddow, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has made it clear he has no intention of running for President this year. Perhaps age (he would be 79 years old by Inauguration Day) has simply caught up with him. His role in the Democratic Party expanded under the leadership of DNC Chair Keith Ellison, so perhaps he was satisfied with the influence he’s had.

Next time: We finally take a look at the Gubernatorial races of 2018!

[Blackacre]

Author's note: I've been thinking about adding interactive elements to this TL. Those of you who read my 2016 TL years ago know I'm a sucker for that sort of thing. I already plan on having a couple of things be reader-chosen, such as interviews or debate questions, but I want to take it a step further. I want to add pundits to this fictional 2020 election cycle.

The idea is simple: real-world pundits comment on the state of the race, and offer their own insight and prediction, while not actually influencing or knowing what's going to happen. I want to have pundits in this TL to flesh out the environment, but having me write for them won't work because 1. I know how everything will play out and some of that might seep into my punditry or be mistaken for foreshadowing, (or actually BE foreshadowing) and 2. I'd only be able to articulate liberal pundits, and even then I'd lack their voice. I co-opted Rachel Maddow for the purposes of Bernie declining a run, but I won't be using pundits after that save for the occasional debate moderator or anchor.

Would any of you be interested in participating in Hindsight Is 2020 as a pundit? You'd take the role of your character after a certain news event or in response to new polling and offer what you think the pundit's take on these events would be. It would be a great way to get input into the story that's not borne from my mind. If this goes well, ie we get plenty of pundits who contribute semi-frequently, I'll be able to do some really neat things, such as:

• Leave the Veepstakes entirely to the pundits, with no input from me besides maybe a leaked shortlist from the campaign. This is a case where the pundits might actually influence the story, too.
• Enhance coverage of the Democratic and Republican national conventions and post-debate analysis.
• Interviews with candidates to highlight issues I either didn't think of or didn't bring enough attention to.
• We could even do an election night 2020 entirely handled by the pundits, with my only contributions being up-to-date maps and PMing results and times to a designated anchor.

With that in mind, there are a TON of pundits to choose from. Obviously only one person can have a particular pundit, but there's a ton. Obviously cable news hosts like Maddow, Cooper, and Hannity qualify, as do comedy hosts like Trevor Noah, John Oliver, Samantha Bee, and Seth Meyers. Plus writers for NYT/WaPo, Politico, and others, and talk radio hosts like Limbaugh. Even the 538 team is up for grabs, including Nate Silver, Micah Cohen, and Whiz Kid Harry Enten.

This is obviously optional, and my story can go to completion without pundits, but it'd be really awesome to be able to do this. Reply and claim a pundit if you're interested!

(by the way, I'll be using Colbert in my own posts, so he's the only one who's off limits)

[Blackacre]

sounds awesome. I call god-like creature, Nate Silver.

Fantastic!

I know I'm pretty new to these forums (like, really new), but can I take Larry J. Sabato and his Crystal Ball?

You absolutely can! Sabato is all yours!

[Blackacre]

Yay for all the claims! I'll use this post to keep track of everything:

Nate Silver - NeverAgain

Larry Sabato (and his crystal ball) - Buck Stops Here

Sam Wang - LLR (you can play yourself too )

Atlas (this should be interesting) - Left

Kyle Kulinski - GoTfan

Wolf Blitzer - rpryor03

Sean Hannity - Dfwlibertylover

Tal Schneider - Parrotguy

John Oliver - jburnx2

Alex Jones - Wintev512

Anderson Cooper (and friends) - Razze

John Avlon - Kingpoleon

Chuck Todd - currently nobody

[Blackacre]

I'm so happy that you guys are signing onto this!

[Blackacre]

Interesting timeline.

Any highlights in the 2018 gubernatorial races? That could result in plausible Vice Presidents.

Ive been breaking up the background portion so we wouldn't get it all in a huge text dump, but worry not; the 2018 gubernatorial races will be coming soon! Also I'm glad you enjoy this!

[Blackacre]

Background Part 4: 2018 US Gubernatorial Elections


The same year that Democrats took back the House and gained seats in the Senate, they also picked up a lot of Gubernatorial seats, finally ending an eight year long streak of dwindling power in the states.


(shout-out to President François de la Rocque and his threads on the PVI of state legislative seats. Couldn’t have done this without you!)


Wisconsin:
Gov. Scott Walker ran for a third term. Russ Feingold tried a third time to win statewide in Wisconsin. Only one of them was going to get their wish, and it turned out to be the end of Feingold’s losing streak.

Fmr. Sen. Russ Feingold: (D) 52%
Gov. Scott Walker: (R) 47%

Democrats broke the Republican gerrymander and easily secured the state Senate, while narrowly taking the state House. The state was fully Republican controlled in 2018, but flipped to full Democratic control under Governor Feingold in 2019.

Alaska:
Governor Walker was popular enough to face no serious opposition from the Democratic Party. Joe Miller tried to run against him and it did not go well.

Gov. Walker: (I) 62%
Joe Miller: (R) 38%

Tennessee:
Rep. Marsha Blackburn and Mayor Karl Dean faced off for Tennessee Governor. Blackburn held a consistent lead throughout the campaign, but she proved gaffe-prone, and the lead shrunk each week. In the end, Tennessee hosted the single closest race in 2018, with Blackburn being seated after a long night.

Rep. Blackburn: (R) 49.9%
Mayor Dean: (D) 49.5%

South Carolina:
Sleeper win for Davis.

State Sen. Tom Davis: (R) 55%
State Rep. Baraki Sellers: (D) 43%


Wyoming:
Secretary of State Ed Murray ran pretty much unopposed.

SoS Ed Murray: (R) 97%
Retired Factory Worker Booty Hunt: (I) 3%


South Dakota:
No surprise here

Rep. Kristi Noem: (R) 65%
Sioux Falls Mayor Mike Huether: (D) 34%


New Mexico:
Susana Martinez was term limited, and so couldn’t do too much but watch her job go to Attorney General Hector Balderas, a Democrat.

Attorney General Hector Balderas: (D) 53%
Mayor Richard Berry: (R) 43%

Democrats took back both houses of the New Mexico state legislature.


Florida:
Rep. Gwen Graham won her party’s nomination for Governor, and entered a tight race against Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater. The race came down to the wire, but in the end the Democrats secured the governorship for the first time in 24 years(!)

Rep. Gwen Graham: (D) 50%
Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater: (R) 49%

Democrats didn’t take back either legislative chamber, but the Florida Democratic Party HQ still celebrated their demonstration of something approaching competence.


Oklahoma:
Lt. Governor Todd Lamb cruised to victory and became the Governor with the funniest name this side of Hickenlooper.

Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb: (R) 58%
Fmr Rep. Dan Boren: (D) 41%


Michigan:
Rick Snyder was about as popular as Flint’s tap water, so it’s no surprise that Michigan was an easy Democratic pickup.

Debbie Dingell: (D) 59%
Justin Amash: (R) 41%

Democrats were also able to take control of the Michigan State House and State Senate, moving another midwestern state from one-party control to one-party control in the other direction.


Massachusetts:
Martha Coakley expressed interest in a gubernatorial rematch, but died in a car crash in August 2017 before she could actually do it. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh got the Democratic nod instead, since US Rep (and future President in a much better universe than this one) Seth Moulton decided to run for re-election to Congress instead. Baker had no issue winning re-election.

Gov. Charlie Baker: (R) 55%
Mayor Marty Walsh: (D) 43%


Maine:
Surprisingly, no independents ran this time, leaving a two-way race between Rep. Bruce Poliquin and Maine House Speaker Mark Eves. It wasn’t close.

Maine House Speaker Mark Eves: (D) 54%
Rep. Bruce Poliquin: (R) 46%

The Democrats also took control of the Maine State Senate.


Maryland:
In the continuation of a strange turn of events in 2018, the states that most strongly voted against Trump were the most likely to keep their Republican-controlled Governorships. Larry Hogan was popular and effective, and so easily won re-election.

Gov. Larry Hogan: (R) 53%
Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett: (D) 46%


Oregon:
Kate Brown wouldn’t be running for President if she didn’t win a full term here.

Gov. Kate Brown: (D) 58%
State Rep. Knute Buehler: (R) 40%


Kansas:
A red wave in 2014 kept Kansas Republicans in power, but in 2018 their luck ran out. Republican nominee and Lt. Gov Jeff Colyer tried his best, but Brownback’s unpopularity was too much to contend with. Say hello to Governor Paul Davis!

Fmr State Rep Paul Davis: (D) 50%
Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer: (R) 49%


Georgia:
This race between Lt. Gov Casey Cagle and State Rep Jason Carter didn’t start out very noteworthy but got interesting as time passed; Carter ran a fantastic campaign and Cagle’s was blunder-tastic. Combine that with a strong national Democratic year and the Governor of Georgia is, once again, a man named Carter.

State Rep Jason Carter: (D) 50.1%
Lt Gov Casey Cagle: (R) 49%

(to be continued in about two minutes)

[Blackacre]

Retired Factory Worker Booty Hunt: (I) 3%

Any relation to the Mississippi retired factory worker named Bootie Hunt who died in 2002?

Yes. I'd like to think there's more than one of them in the world

[Blackacre]

New York:
Andrew Cuomo actually seemed vulnerable, and State Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan got the nod to run against him. It was all for naught; Cuomo easily won a third term.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo: (D) 56%
State Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan: (R) 40%


Pennsylvania:
Governor Tom Wolf ran for Re-election, facing off against State Senator Scott Wagner. Wolf won easily.

Gov. Tom Wolf: (D) 54%
State Rep. Scott Wagner: (R) 45%

Democrats made gains in the legislature, but not enough to take control of either chamber.


Ohio:
Attorney General Mark DeWine and US Rep Tim Ryan faced off for the Ohio Gubernatorial seat. By all means this should have been an easy Republican hold, but the same forces that cost Kasich a Senate seat landed a Governorship for Tim Ryan.

Rep. Tim Ryan: (D) 50%
Attorney General Mark DeWine: (R) 48%

Democrats made gains in the state legislatures but were unable to take back either chamber.


Vermont:
Governor Phil Scott faced Sue Minter in a rematch, with similar results.

Gov. Phil Scott: (R) 55%
Sue Minter: (D) 42%


Connecticut:
Unpopular governor Dan Malloy decided to seek Re-election, and was defeated in the general by State Senator Joe Markley in a rare Republican silver lining.

State Rep. Joe Markley: (R) 51%
Gov. Dan Malloy: (D) 42%

Republicans won an outright majority in the State Senate, though the State House remained in Democratic hands.


New Hampshire:
Governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second two-year term.

Gov. Chris Sununu: (R) 50%
State Rep. Donna Soucy: (D) 48%

However, Democrats took back the majority in both chambers of the legislature.


Rhode Island:
Gina Raimondo ran for re-election but lost the primary to Attorney General Peter Kilmartin. Kilmartin went on to easily win the general.

Attorney General Peter Kilmartin: (D) 45%
State Rep. Antonio Giarrusso: (R) 39%


Minnesota:
Mark Dayton’s retirement opened up the nomination, which was won by Lt. Gov. Tina Smith. She went on to crush her Republican opponent.

Lt. Gov. Tina Smith: (DFL) 55%
MN House Speaker Kurt Daudt: (R) 42%

Democrats picked up the Minnesota state House.


Illinois:
The trend of Republicans doing better in deep Atlas-red states in 2018 didn’t apply to Illinois and their unpopular Governor.

Former Presidential Advisor Valerie Jarrett: (D) 60%
Gov. Bruce Rauner: (R) 38%


Iowa:
Republican Secretary of State Paul Pate won his party’s nod and went up against State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald for the Iowa Governorship. As if to rub salt in the wound of their midwestern collapse, the GOP couldn't even hold onto this seat.

State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald: (D) 52%
Secretary of State Paul Pate: (R) 47%

Democrats also seized control over the state House and Senate.

Texas:
Wendy Davis sought a rematch against Governor Greg Abbott, which was absolutely adorable. It’s kind of like Glass Joe seeking a “rematch” against Little Mac in punch-out.

Gov. Greg Abbott: (R) 62%
Wendy Davis: (D) 37%


California:
The top-2 primary system resulted in another DvD race, between Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and State Treasurer John Chiang. Newsom won.

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom: (D) 56%
State Treasurer John Chiang: (D) 44%


Alabama:
Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle won the Republican nomination and cruised to an easy victory.

Mayor Tommy Battle: (R) 57%
State Rep. Billy Beatle: (D) 41%


Arizona:
Governor Doug Ducey ran for and secured re-election. Though the race proved close, the outcome was never in doubt.

Gov. Doug Ducey: (R) 52%
Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton: (D) 47%


Colorado:
Former Senator and former Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar became the next governor of the Centennial State.

Fmr Sen./Fmr Interior Secretary Ken Salazar: (D) 55%
Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler: (R) 44%

The Democrats took control of the Colorado State Senate and held onto the State House.


Hawaii:
David Ige glided to a second term.

Gov. David Ige: (D) 72%
Fmr Lt. Gov. Duka Aiona: (R) 26%


Arkansas:
Governor Asa Hutchinson’s re-election was almost as easy as Ige’s.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson: (R) 54%
Fmr US Attorney Conner Eldridge: (D) 42%


Nebraska:
Governor Pete Ricketts won re-election in whatever the opposite of an upset is. The Democrats didn’t even field a challenger of their own!

Gov. Pete Ricketts: (R) 97%


Idaho:
Lt. Governor Brad Little became governor of this little state.

Lt. Gov. Brad Little: (R) 69%
Businessman A.J. Balukoff: (D) 30%


Nevada:
Brian Sandoval, perhaps after taking a glimpse into an alternate reality in which his Presidency goes so awry that he doesn’t even run for a second term, culls his ambitions short and retires. Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison wins his party’s nomination but is steamrolled by Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak.

Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak: (D) 56%
Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison: (R) 43%

At the end of the night, here’s what the gubernatorial map looked like:

Pink = Seats the Democrats did not hold in January 2017 that they hold as of January 2019
Sky blue = Seats the Republicans did not hold in January 2017 that they hold as of January 2019
Red: Democratic Hold
Blue: Republican Hold
Green: Independent Hold
Balance of Gubernatorial Power: 22/27/1


Democrats also picked up several state legislatures, and so now have unified power in the following states they did not have it in before: New Jersey, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. They lost unified power in Connecticut.

Overall the night was a complete disaster for the Republican Party. They lost the House, lost an outright majority in the Senate in what should have been an easy pickup map, and lost their historically large amount of power in the states. Every single midwestern state turned against the GOP, including states that went for Trump in large numbers, and even a few Southern states went for the Democrats. The GOP's only victory was in New England, where they lost Maine but gained Connecticut and held Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. It was the kind of stinging defeat the Democrats knew all too well in 2010 and 2014.

(edit: I accidentally pasted the wrong version of the results. The only difference is the result of TN-Gov. It took me a while to decide the outcome)

Next time: A new contender enters the Presidential race, plus one of the six already declared candidates sits down for an interview! It’ll be whichever one the readers most want to see!

[Blackacre]

How many seats did the democrats win in the House of Representatives?

59 33. Xavier Becerra Joaquin Castro STENY HOYER DAMNIT is the Speaker now and there are 252 227 Democrats in the House to Paul Ryan's 183208-member GOP Caucus. That may look like a huge number (and it is) but I got the figure by going to the Wikipedia page for the PVI of each House seat seeing what seats would flip in a near that was D+4-5 nationally. (it would have been above 60 but I figured there would be a handful of popular Republicans in strongly Dem seats that would keep their jobs)

edit: yeah it was too big. I went over each individual seat with TimTurner and we hammered out what happens in each seat and this is what we came up with.

[Blackacre]

How many seats did the democrats win in the House of Representatives?

59. Xavier Becerra is the Speaker now and there are 252 Democrats in the House to Paul Ryan's 183-member GOP Caucus. That may look like a huge number (and it is) but I got the figure by going to the Wikipedia page for the PVI of each House seat seeing what seats would flip in a near that was D+4-5 nationally. (it would have been above 60 but I figured there would be a handful of popular Republicans in strongly Dem seats that would keep their jobs)

Thanks for that, great work keep it up!

You're very welcome, glad you're enjoying it!

[Blackacre]

Iowa:
Republican Secretary of State Paul Pate won his party’s nod and went up against State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald for the Iowa Governorship. As if to rub salt in the wound of their midwestern collapse, the GOP couldn't even hold onto this seat.

State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald: (D) 50%
Secretary of State Paul Pate: (R) 49%

Democrats also seized control over the state House and Senate.

I'm guessing Terry Branstad finally retires? Or does he get primaried?

He retires.

[Blackacre]

Holy crap, over 1100 views!

Just to remind you guys, the next post includes an interview excerpt for a candidate of your choice. If you forgot who the declared candidates are, it's Warren, Wyden, Booker, de Blasio, Franken, Kate Brown, and Cuomo.

[Blackacre]

Since nobody made an interview request, it'll have to wait. It's still on the table, though! On with the show!

Thursday, March 21st, 2019


Three years ago, I voted for Donald Trump for President. It is the single biggest regret of my life. He is a compulsive liar, a man who has proven himself undeserving of our trust. He promised to repeal Obamacare, it still exists. He promised to cut spending, but if I weren’t in the Senate he’d have spent trillions more on wasteful government programs that we cannot afford. The deficit has soared, our liberties are being taken away, and it’s all because of a man who cares almost as little about the Constitution as his predecessor. This man cannot be our President. I intend to prove that the Republican party still stands for small government and for the constitution, and to do that, I am running for President of the United States of America!

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has decided to try the unthinkable: Primary a sitting President. Ted Cruz at first endorsed Trump and took his side over those protesting his victory. However, he was hurt more than anyone except maybe Paul Ryan by President Trump’s unpredictability and his inclination towards bigger government programs like the Wall and Infrastructure spending. President Trump and the RNC have been trying to force the party into line, but Cruz was a special case. Would this force Trump to announce his re-election campaign early?


If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Wyden: 14%
Sen. Franken: 14%
Sen. Booker: 12%
Mayor de Blasio: 11%
Gov. Brown: 10%
Gov. Cuomo: 9%


If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Republicans)
President Trump: 75%
Sen. Cruz: 16%


Next time: We’re going to take a look at how the Debates and other aspects of the Democratic nominating process get worked out!

[Blackacre]

Kyle doesn't usually do interviews, but I can make an exception given his new studio. How do we request interviews?

...really should have gone into more detail about this.

If you're a pundit and want an interview with a candidate, either make a post or a PM (preferably the latter) with who the candidate is that you want and what questions you want to ask.

If you're not a pundit, make a post here with which candidate you'd like to see and I'll just include an excerpt (basically a slightly deeper insight into the candidate) in the next post.

[Blackacre]

Kyle Kulinski has landed an interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren! Here are some highlights from their conversation:


Thank you so much for coming onto the show, Senator. I'd like to get started right away with the first question: Why did you endorse Hillary Clinton in 2016 when Bernie Sanders was closer to your views overall?


Well, than you so much for having me, I'm glad to be here! To answer your question, I made a point to not endorse anybody while the voters were deciding between Clinton and Sanders, because I didn't want to risk crippling either campaign. I didn't actually endorse Hillary Clinton until she had a majority of pledged delegates. Is Bernie Sanders closer to my views? Absolutely. But either one of them would have been an ally to progressive causes and a far better President than Trump.

Kyle Kulinski:
Though it's not a concern for me, there have been rumblings that your age might be a handicap. Will you put those concerns to rest now?

Elizabeth Warren:
Absolutely. I am every bit as healthy today as I was three years ago when I toured the country to try to stop Donald Trump from becoming President, and as I was seven years ago when I ran for the Senate against Scott Brown. I'm in very good health, I have a lot of energy, and my age won't limit my capacity to govern in any way, shape, or form. In addition, I'm actually younger than the current President!

Kyle Kulinski:
You've been one of Trump's fiercest opponents in the Senate, and there are many Democrats who believe that you're of better use in the Senate. What do you say to those who believe you're of more use in the Senate?

Elizabeth Warren:
I'm flattered that they think that, honestly. What I'll say is, the President can drive the agenda of the nation in ways that a Senator cannot. As a Senator, I was able to block Trump's wall, but as President I'd be able to send much better legislation to Congress. A Senator also can't direct the federal agencies to advance policy, which the President can do. So to the Democrats who like having me in the Senate so much, I say that if you think I'm so invaluable in the Senate, you'd be even more happy with me in the White House.

Kyle Kulinski:
There's been chatter from some establishment Democrats that Bill De Blasio doesn't have the experience to be President, given that he’s only been a Mayor. What do you think?

Elizabeth Warren:
Well I don't want to dismiss Mayor de Blasio and what he's done for his city, but it's true that he has less experience. Donald Trump had zero when he ran and it's shown in the shoddy way he's ran his White House. I think that knowing the workings of the federal government, knowing how to move legislation, and doing work at the national level is important.

Kyle Kulinski:
Now Wall Street's been stealing stuff from people for years. How do you plan to take on the major banks?

Elizabeth Warren:
Like I said before, there's a lot that the President can do with the federal agencies. I'd put in the departments of the Treasury, Labor, and the CFPB, among others, public servants that aren't former lobbyists or executives. I'd aim to sign into law a reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall act and additional laws that would prevent Wall Street from scamming ordinary Americans, and I'd have the federal agencies enforce them. When the aim of the government is to protect the American people from the exploits of Wall Street, there's a lot it can do.

Kyle Kulinski:
You mentioned reinstating the Glass-Steagall. Now personally, I agree with that, and so do many others, but Washington's become increasingly partisan ever since, well, 2008 I guess. How do plan to reinstate the Act in a bitterly partisan environment like Washington?

Elizabeth Warren:
It's difficult to pass legislation, but not impossible. Partisanship can be overcome when the President is willing to actively engage with members of congress instead of sitting back and expecting everything to pass. President Trump has been horrible at this, and it was one place where President Obama fell short. When communication improves, so does legislation.

Thanks to GoTfan for the interview questions! I have a second interview requested by LLR to do between now and the next update. Again, if you wish to do an interview with a candidate, PM me the questions, (if any) the name of the candidate, and remind me which pundit you've claimed. (if you haven't claimed a pundit yet, you still can!)