Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,172
Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22
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« on: October 31, 2016, 11:12:44 AM » |
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In 2012 polls didn't account for the ground game, did they? Obama's edge is probably how he got from +1 to +4, or a 3 point swing. If you double that because Trump's ground game is atrocious while Clinton's remains good, you can get a 6 point swing, or go from +5 to +11. Keeping the swing at Obama levels gets you +8, so between those two numbers is where I believe the election's going to end.
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