Political future of Mondaire Jones (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 06:15:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Political future of Mondaire Jones (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Political future of Mondaire Jones  (Read 550 times)
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,659
United States


« on: November 24, 2022, 01:05:41 PM »

Not after trying to win a House seat in Williamsburg lol. Sadly, Jones probably could've held the line this year with a bit more moderate rebranding. WFP reported people in Rockland county badmouthing SPM because he chased Jones out. I think he prolly would've improved on SPM's margin there and narrowly won. Now I guess he'll go become an SEIU lobbyist or something
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,659
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2022, 12:46:35 PM »


 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,659
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2022, 01:18:01 PM »


 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.

- I think NY was one of the few places where the crime fear-mongering was really effective this cycle.  What works in one state isn’t going to necessarily work as well in another state. 

- I think Jones would’ve probably lost by like ~3%.  It’d still be close, in part b/c he’d do better in Rockland than SPM.  However, I think Jones would’ve have gotten even less Orthodox backing and have done worse in Dutchess and Westchester.

- The stuff about SPM having no ground game isn’t true, although he did a crappy job repairing relationships with activist groups that were upset about him forcing Jones out.  That Intercept article was pretty clearly a bad-faith hatchet job, despite raising some legit points like how SPM should’ve had some sort of outreach about working on GOTV with the Rockland County Working Families Party. 

- London Breed was irrelevant to the 2022 results, Caruso is functionally a Republican who was irrelevant to competitive races, and Adams was definitely a major villain

- I never said an SPM type is the answer either Tongue 



It wasn’t just the intercept article. Slate or Salon ran one with similar conclusions, highlighting that Pat Ryan (and in the past Mondaire Jones) ran on environmental issues that ginned up turnout in the region. It’s one thing to spurn DSA, it’s another entirely to treat the Sierra Club or WFP cavalierly

Agree to disagree, but I think Jones would’ve narrowly won. Matt Cartwright provides a perfect model to follow, and I think Jones could’ve followed it. We will never know how well progressives run in swing seats because they get handicapped by the very people who claim they are unelectable. Jamie McLeod Skinner and Kara East man’s first runs come to mind, and unlike Mondaire Jones they weren’t incumbent representatives. I would give it to him by a very narrow margin like Pat Ryan. Democrats do well when their candidates have close ties to local communities
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 11 queries.