None during a Presidential year
Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?
Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.
Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.
Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.
I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...
A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...
In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.
I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.
Then how did Chris Christie win in 2009 then? He won Middlesex, Burlington counties.
IIRC, and I’m no NJ expert, he did so by making inroads in the exact kind of communities he’s talking about? But also those communities are a lot more influential than they were in 2009.
