California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[coloradocowboi]

First of all s/o to Xahar for the nice words and rly brilliant analysis.

I'm actually really curious to see how Latinos and Asians achieve more political power in NorCal moving forward. A bunch of white, unremarkable Dems are sitting on v diverse seats in the house that will be very competitive when they open up (and tbh would be for a brave progressive of color now): Swalwell, Lofgren, Thompson, Garamendi, and DeSaulnier all come to mind--although the latter two probably have the progressive street cred to quash a challenge. Garamendi has gotta either retire or die soon tho he has been in California politics forever.

One thing, having spent a lot of time in West Hollywood recently, folks forget about Southern California too is that the entertainment industry is hardly "woke" or "socialist." It's actually been for most of its history a bastion of cultural conservatism, and absolutely the largest mouthpiece for American capitalism. After Bush 2 and especially Prop 8, the Republicans became culturally toxic to Millennials, whose $ funds the media industries the most, so there was an establishment shift to the left (e.g. Caruso becoming a Dem, Herb Wesson's perch on the city council for a decade).

But that establishment is still fundamentally conservative, pro big business, pro cop, and, crucially, pro war in a way that even the worst swamp monster norcal could create (e.g. gavin newsom) looks like a progressive in comparison. LA's machine is way more neoliberal than SF's, it's just extremely incompetent and weakened by probably the most insurgent DSA chapter in the country, as well as competent conservative foes like the OCGOP, military industrial complex... Adam Schiff will be their guy, and just like Caruso and everyone else they put up (Villaraigosa, for instance), he will fall short no matter how much they put him on CNN.

Porter will be the state party's candidate. Lee will lock up the Black vote and probably dominate in the Bay. I think she also has a lot of potential to go far here in Los Angeles too, because actual leftism has started to become kinda trendy and cool here. In the south end of Schiff's district, neighborhoods like Los Feliz and Echo Park are probably gonna go for Porter and/or Lee before Schiff. If a Mexican American candidate gets in.... You're looking at maybe a fourth place finish.

Where then does he make up the votes? It's not like he's tight with SD Latinos or Westminster's huge Vietnamese community. His gay constituents have so much distaste for him, despite begging for our support, that we literally forced him to run against a drag queen. I get the sense that he's a paper tiger, and outside of communities that read Politico, Adam Schiff doesn't matter. That's not a good place to be starting in...

[coloradocowboi]

California politics has become downright feudal in the past decade. Newsom and Schiff’s only appeal is that they’re next in line to the throne.

It’s because the mainstream Democratic Party is a feudal organization. Don’t get me wrong - I have and always will unless things change vote Dem. But I know what the party is. It’s the institution original purposed to protect slavery. Now it fulfills the same role for financial capitalism, which for me a working class Californian born without tons of money looks pretty feudal itself.

[coloradocowboi]

It is wild to see so many from our East speculate so confidently on what none of us here know for sure. Schiff has all the establishment support, and that will absolutely count. How much and enough to make it out of a primary? I dk.

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Porter is v overrated imo, but she won’t be underfunded and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the state party get behind her candidacy. She can definitely count on white gay votes like Elizabeth Warren did, which actually matters in California

But the two biggest factors: gop candidates and Latino voters are humongous question marks. Until that gets sorted out we are looking at a three way race with support levels in the high teens for all three dem front runners. It’s a long way to June 2024

[coloradocowboi]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

I am willing to bet given the historic nature of her candidacy that even centrist black leaders like London Breed will feel intense pressure to endorse Lee. The LA black establishment is pretty progressive though, and I expect all of those names to come out for Lee. I also imagine a lot of Asian American and Latina lawmakers of the feminist persuasion will come out for Lee. People like Judy Chu, Mia Bonta, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and Nanette Barragan are worth keeping an eye on. In general, I also expect progressives to mostly back Lee.

My congressman (Jimmy Gomez) endorsed Schiff already and I don’t understand. In a district like his where identity and progressivism matters, it’s a rly dumb move. But we don’t ever bother with high expectations for Jimmy

Actually Schiff is the de facto R nominee he performance in Northern CA is on par with Elder Porter and Feinstein do very well in upstate CA where Schiff whom is losing Northern CAis down by 11 if he was winning N CA he would be down 3/5 not 11 in the Runoff

Schiff doesn't have any blk support whatsoever what can he bring to blks Blks and Latinos voted for Bass over Caruso that's how you know Schiff does poorly with blks

This is pretty much it I think. If Schiff can win over Latinos (v doubtful lol), he has a chance of winning. But I’m not sure he will even do that well among white people in socal. He and Porter will probably destroy each other, paving the way for Barbara Lee

[coloradocowboi]

Is it cynical to suggest some people might favour Lee or even schiff as they’re less likely to still be here in 20 years.

With Padilla being unlikely to run for President there’s a real chance of no vacancy for three or four terms if Porter won…

This is another reason why I am 99% certain I will be voting for Lee. I like Katie Porter and wish she wasn't about to be replaced with Harley Rouda, but ultimately she is a center-left, "capitalist to her bones" (to quote her mentor), progressively-branded McDemocrat. I've spent a lot of time bagging on Schiff here, but the truth about Katie Porter is that she really isn't much more progressive than Schiff, just more branded that way. I dk if I wanna sign on to 12+ years with this woman until I know way more about her, what she believes, what guides her, what she thinks the future of gov't is

[coloradocowboi]

yes...lets elect a 78 year old to a safe Dem Senate seat when there is a younger option of similar ideology and would vote the same 99%+ of the time...just zero logic.

Zero logic? Well, for starters, it's very logical that Black women want to be represented in the U.S. Senate. It's in their interest as a community, and it's in every single American's interest to be represented by somebody who understands their experience?? Sure, youth matters. But if that's true, then so does race... I am very over the "identity politics is illogical" tirades coming from people blatantly practicing identity politics. They are inevitable, and probably because they are important

Anyway, they are also not really of a "similar" ideology. I don't believe Katie Porter has any questions or doubts about the nature of our economic system or principled opposition to the military industrial complex. She's a McProgressive, Barbara Lee is closer to being a real leftist (tho clearly not). I doubt Katie Porter would tackle foreign policy like Lee would.

There's actually so much more to it. But y'all are about to find out when that 78 year old lady gets elected, and probably wins young voters over Porter 2:1

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1624172145927684096

With that list of guests IMO it's quite obvious that Carol Moseley Braun will be launching a primary challenge to Dick Durbin in 2026.

Lol. I think he retires in 26 and Underwood claims his seat easily, is more like it.

CMB is there because she's definitely proof it's harder to be Black woman in politics. She'd still be a senator if she was a white dude, but then we wouldn't have Obama (which I would fine with tbh). But ultimately, she lost because she was "too progressive" (despite being very moderate on fiscal issues actually) and cuz of "corruption" (she visited with exactly one dictator, which today is a GOP rite of passage). She fell in the polls when she complained about racism, and I know that the campaign against her was very dog-whistley and racist.

It's very hard being a Black woman in politics, and if Republicans don't believe me they should Google what Mia Love has had to say about it. The expectations and standards are higher, you seem less "relatable" to the majority ethnic group just because of who you are, the constant presence of negative stereotypes in the media means you have to be very cautious of how you come across. Not to mention... you know... dealing with racism and sexism?

It's why race matters more than age to me here. If China had ZERO Tibetan or Uyghur women (and btw they don't...) in their Assembly, our government would remind us incessantly. If the Knesset had no Arab women, leftists on here would scold them. But our country enslaved a population for 350 years, banned them from public life for a century after, and now has ZERO of their women in our Senate and is confused like "why the identity politics?" (as if age based voting is not also identity politics lol)

It feels insane to me. Black women deserve equitable representation, let alone representation period. Especially when they are the most loyal Democratic constituency.

I would vote for Barbara Lee anyway. She's a hero, an icon, and the right person for the job. But it's crazy, downright gaslighting to me, that so many people are proceeding as if the point she is making about Black women's representation in government isn't important. To me, it's far more important than having someone my age in office. I think lots of minorities feel that way, and making it into a race vs. age thing has extremely high potential to backfire.

I'll vote for Katie Porter over a Republican or Schiff. I don't dislike her, although I also am familiar with her voting record and beliefs and am happy to explain why they don't just align neatly with my progressive values. Regardless, I think that Barbara Lee is a unique and special candidate with history's realization riding on her shoulders. And I think that a lot more people are like me than many of us are willing to admit.

Similarly, I'm very curious to see how Brenda Lawrence does in a contested primary. We are looking at the Year of the Black Woman coming right up, and I think folks in here are underestimating how powerful that kind of a Zeitgeist could be. We definitely have Alsobrooks and LBR incoming. I for one would be ecstatic to go from 0 to 4 Black women in the Senate

[coloradocowboi]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

Both of you need to read a little bit more back in time lol. We've been over this. Nobody wants London Breed. People have other factors besides age in mind.

[coloradocowboi]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

[coloradocowboi]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter. 

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

She isn't gonna win which suits Porter fine she runs up the score in upstate CA while Schiff and Barbara Lee split the downstate vote in LA a Runoff between Schiff and Porter inevitable

Blks have no problem voting for Porter against Schiff in a Runoff

This is extremely confusing. Porter is from OC, Lee is from Oakland. If anybody is gonna dominate the Bay Area, it's Barbara Lee, who to reiterate represents a district that is about 40% white and 40% Asian. She'll prolly pick up endorsements from Khanna and Desaulnier, and perform very well in Contra-Costa, Marin, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. She will definitely do well in SF, and will likely get London Breed's endorsement.

Beyond this, she will do very well with LA's Black community, and probably pick up endorsements from Maxine Waters, Sydney Kamlager, and Karen Bass. She will also likely be the beneficiary of the DSA-LA voting bloc, which people on here can mock as "only online" if they want, but unlike the vast majority here whose contact with CA politics is most online, I can tell you DSA LA and the unions are v powerful here. Nithya, Eunisses, Hugo, & Marqueece will come out for Lee. I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up winning LA outright like Bernie did, but even if not she will do very well here.

Schiff's base of support in the city is also very tenuous. I think Valley voters will back him hard, and maybe some rich ppl types along the coast. But everything beyond that is up for grabs. I expect him to do well in SF and along the central coast too with wealthy moderates.

Porter remains the one that I think is at a serious disadvantage. Her only saving grace is that she will raise the most money and have the ability to compete for airtime. However, her district is not very vote rich for Dem primaries, and the same can be said for Orange County in general. I also think the institutional left and labor unions are a lot more likely to back Lee than Porter. Schiff has locked up establishment support... So what's her path to the top 2? I think not only is she not "inevitable," she's probably the most likely of the three main candidates on the D side to flop hard. We don't even know that much about her yet.

Lastly, and I keep saying this, all of this is just speculation until we have a better idea of how Latinos vote in the primary. Given their overwhelming support for Bernie in 2020, I would assume Lee does well enough with them to keep Porter out of the top 2.

[coloradocowboi]

SNIP

Three minor nitpicks:

1) You are looking at an outdated district (I think the old SF one based on demos?). Lee currently represents the 12th, which is 35% White, 21% Hispanic, 18% AA, 25% Asian by VAP. But her electoral strength here isn't really relevant because she hasn't faced any serious challenges, and if she did, she easily wins between Berkeley and AA's having a higher CVAP percentage than VAP.

2) Porter's path is the suburban wine mom path, same as many other successful Dems in recent times. Us armchair analysts kinda have a blindspot to this group - which is gaining strength in Dem primaries - since we rush to group things ideologically, demographically, or geographically.  I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate. Anecdotally of course, I know a handful of people (demographically diverse) who fall into this track stereotypes and they are all for Porter, several have even donated and one is gonna join her SF campaign team.

3) Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility too tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

1. Okay so Barbara Lee still has deep roots in  a multiethnic and ideologically diverse area. That’s what matters here.

2. Wine moms are an overrepresented and overimaginedly important group, especially in a state like CA. I rly don’t buy that Porter is gonna have an advantage with WOC against one. And she will probably lose progressive voters to Lee. Sure, she’ll win the msnbc watching, wealthy white girl set. But that’s a pretty insignificant part of the primary electorate. And also, having visited family in Marin for decades, I can tell you that your stereotype is: A. Not v accurate, and that’s even in the bay’s whitest county and B. Ignores that many of these women you are stereotyping are extremely involved in local politics and have probably encountered Barbara Lee before and retain a positive impression of her. Specially older women who are more likely to vote.

3. Khanna has already said he would defer to Lee. Presumably that includes endorsing her. Like me and a large number of Californians, he has also said he thinks there should be representation for black women in the senate and that BL would be an excellent choice  

/snip

Serious question: Why the constant harping against Porter? Practically every other of your posts in this thread seems to include a (sometimes lengthy) writeup on how overrated Porter is, how much of a fake progressive she is and/or how you think she'll collapse. You don't talk as much about Schiff even though you seem to dislike him more. Not sure if it comes from being very pro-Lee, anti-Porter or both.

Just wondering as someone who's currently supporting Porter but wouldn't mind for Lee or having her as a Senator.

Harping? I am simply pointing out challenges I see for her as a political consultant and scholar. She made a mistake getting in this race. She’s not a fake progressive, but she’s not a real leftist like Barbara Lee or a Black woman in a political culture where representation matters. I dk who her base is gonna be besides online stan types, and that can backfire badly.

I am gonna put my eggs in Lee’s basket bc: 1. I think she’s the best candidate; and 2. I don’t know enough about Katie Porter yet to want to sign up for decades of her representing me. It’s important to me that my senator not be reflexively loyal to capitalism and American militarism. I know Lee isn’t and won’t be in office long anyway.

As for Adam Schiff, I’ve definitely been way more critical of him as a human being than Katie Porter. He is vile, self centered, pathological, and must be stopped even if that means rolling the dice with Katie. But…. My tune has changed on him because I did not anticipate that the establishment hammer would come down so hard for him, so early on. It is gonna take lots of work to keep him out of this senate seat, and ofc that is my priority #1.

I’m always down to compromise my values. That’s what it means to be a democrat tbch lol. But Adam Schiff has done more for white supremacy than Larry elder could dream of. He has lots of blood on his hands re: the for profit prison system, our adventurous wars, corporate greed. He is the worst kind of democrat, a blue dog and a fake progressive, because he has v few values or morals. He is self centered to the extreme. V dangerous and evil man. Y’all can vote for Katie if you want, but pls pls pls be wary of Adam Schiff

[coloradocowboi]

Isn't Ro Khanna all but certain to run?

No lol. He even said to político he would not if Lee runs. He’s tight with Newsom and imo likely to mount a run for governor in 2026 so he can later try for potus

[coloradocowboi]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

May I ask your racial and/or ethnic background?

Because tbh that's a question of great importance. Our v white entertainment and v white tech industries are here, so most images people are exposed to of CA are of ppl like me: blond, blue eyed medium-leftists who listen to NPR and read the news every morning. I have said and will say again that among my demographic, white gay guys (which is btw a numerically v large number of primary voters) Katie is prolly gonna perform well.

But she will have lots of competition among white people, and the battleline there are pretty hardened. White leftists go with Lee, liberals with Porter, and the apparently millions of people who care what Nancy Pelosi thinke with Adam Schiff.

Same with African Americans. A decent number will vote for Schiff because of ideological anti-leftism, but Barbara Lee is gonna win 90%+

What it will come down to is East and South Asian Americans (who Porter has ties with and demonstrated ability to win, I'll give her that), West Asian Americans like Iranians and Armenians, who Schiff has a similar relationship with buttttttt also lean pretty left as a constituency, and, more importantly, Latinos, who comprise a large part of Adam Schiff's district but I think are v up for grabs and poised to be kingmakers here. Most Latino friends I've spoken to thus far have only one opinion rly: f*** DiFi and who cares lol

[coloradocowboi]

Oh I absolutely agree with you that my pulse is probably among my demographic group which is middle-class, white, gay men. So like you said, I'm sure Porter is gonna floor it with that group considering she's a strong, progressive, female which gay men tend to have an affinity for, at least in my experience.

Some of the only precincts won by Elizabeth Warren in CA in 2020 were in West Hollywood and the Castro. I have a feeling that could happen to Porter. The primary is also only one year away

[coloradocowboi]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

Over Schiff, I think this is possible because he is so toxic to a lot of Rs.

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

[coloradocowboi]

Is there any evidence of this happening before, of non-black minority woman favouring a black woman over a white woman all things held constant ?

That’s not the claim I made, first of all. And it’s not a question you can operationalize at any rate. That being said, how could you even know? How many black women have run for statewide office? What kind of evidence are you looking for?

Shirley Weber outperformed Gavin Newsom in Latino areas, for what it’s worth. Karen Bass ultimately fended off Caruso by improving on her performance in KDL and Cedillo’s districts, which are predominantly Asian and Latino. I dk it’s also the case that people who experience similar oppressions have similar experiences and ideologies? It’s not like the terms “woman of color” and “woman of color feminism” have no valence to anyone at all even if not all women of color feel this way.

Heck, even Diana Degette’s closest primary challenge in Denver came from Saira Rao lol

[coloradocowboi]

Lee is also including endorsements from Dolores Huerta and Cedric Richmond, among others. Quite an interesting cross-section of ideologies, and a good mix of both establishment and outsider types. She may be able to coalesce enough support by being a black woman running in a field of (presumably) mostly white folks. Schiff, Porter, and Lee may not differ a ton ideologically, but the racial divide is probably going to play out in the results.

I think Lee wins white progressives handily in the end too. The question will ultimately be how latino voters swing, and I don’t see them swinging for Schiff

[coloradocowboi]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

Yes but that’s not a v significant slice of the primary electorate

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

I would put money on a Lee v Schiff top 2.

[coloradocowboi]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

[coloradocowboi]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

[coloradocowboi]

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

No, def not. The only reason he ran for mayor of LA was so he could fast track his stupid little mall projects and continue to accumulate real estate capital. He knows he can’t win, and he also knows it’s a terrible job in these times

[coloradocowboi]

That moment when there are two Dwyane Johnson registrations.

Which tells you how serious the Caruso registration is. For what it's worth, I'm v into LA politics (and unfortunately work in a roundabout way for Caruso, oops I mean USC) and have heard not even a single rumor.

[coloradocowboi]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter)

It's not surprising that the Kamala Harris network would also be the Barbara Lee network, even if Harris herself hasn't made a formal endorsement. It's another point for the notion that the real establishment candidate in this race is Barbara Lee, not Adam Schiff.

Meanwhile, hot off Karen Bass's endorsement of Lee, the Schiff campaign has decided to remember some guys:

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1631152484516511744

The most exciting name on this list to me is Aaron Peskin, who is more or less a Republican caricature of a San Francisco politician. He would be by far the most malign influence on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors if not for Dean Preston. Some other names that veteran California observers might know include Darrell Steinberg (former state senate president pro tem and current Sacramento mayor), John Chiang (holder of multiple statewide elected offices, finished fifth in the 2018 gubernatorial primary), and Janice Hahn (former congresswoman, current Los Angeles County supervisor, brother of the former Los Angeles mayor).

I don't think that any of these names move the needle in any appreciable way, although the Peskin endorsement is really funny. What remains striking is the lack of support from Hispanic politicians with any sort of profile. Any candidate who can convincingly win the Southern California Mexican vote will certainly get through to the general election, and at the moment there's no indication if anyone can do it.

Schiff is gonna rake in all the corporate friendly politician endorsements, we knew this. And you’re right it won’t move the needle. But it def is a preview of how much Big Capital, Big Tech, and Big Real Estate will be spending on behalf of their chosen tool

[coloradocowboi]

Schiff has gotten plenty of establishment support.  I don’t think one can just hand-wave away the fact that he’s been endorsed by (among others) Pelosi and a good chunk of the House Democratic Caucus.  

I expect Lee to do better than she has in the decidedly limited polling we have so far, but I’m also not even convinced yet that she’ll amount to anything more than a third wheel in this race.  She could gain a lot of ground and become a major contender, but right now we don’t have much evidence that she’s a serious threat to take one of the runoff spots.  Again, not saying she won’t become one as the campaign progresses, but Lee doesn’t seem to be starting from a position of strength.

It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.  

If it seems like I am hedging my bets, that’s b/c I am  It’s ridiculously early and a lot can change (far too early for me to make predictions), but some folks (this bit is not directed at anyone in particular) are talking like Lee is the clear frontrunner and/or that Porter is a doomed third wheel destined to finish a semi-distant third.  There’s very little evidentiary basis for either of those things at this point.  If nothing else, Lee very much has her work cut out for her and it’s telling that she hasn’t released her own polling to counter the ones showing her in single-digits.

Let’s break this down. Why does Pelosi’s endorsement matter? Whose vote does it secure?

And following that logic, whose vote does Jimmy Gomez secure? Or Julia Brownley? Or (lmao) George Miller?

The point we have all been making is that California politics involves catering to diverse racial, cultural, and ideological communities and MSNBC loving, wealthy white liberals are just one of them. Schiff will reap media and financial benefits from association with the establishment, sure. But it will likely hurt him with progressives and Latinos, two groups he absolutely needs to perform well with to have a chance.

To the point about Barbara Lee, the only evidence I’ve seen that she’s doomed to be a third wheel is opinion polling, and that’s unfair because she’s sitting at about 70% unknown. She has room to grow and likely will with: 1. Second most establishment support after Schiff; 2. Likely more institutional progressive support than Porter; and 3. The fact that identity politics matters here.

The dem primary electorate here is like 1/3 white y’all, and some of us California white folks actually care as much about representational politics as POC. This is the part that I think people are really underestimating Barbara Lee on. She’s running against two wealthy, white democrats from socal. Her potential to leverage this into a good position with Latinos, Filipinos, and other Asian groups is very high. She already represents a very diverse CD in the bay. A lot of people here are acting like her identity politics campaign will only resonate with blacks people and that’s a colossal mistake in California. Just look at Karen Bass’ mayor campaign in places like central and East LA. She had high “do not know” #s and even lost this region to Caruso in the first round, only to turn around and take it from him.

She also will get more actual leftist support than Porter, and that’s a fact. DSA LA will show up for Lee. That’s honestly like a few hundred thousand votes. She has better and more consistent credentials to appeal to leftist voters.

Finally, she’s the only Northern California candidate and has actually got more solid establishment support from the region than Schiff, excepting Nancy Pelosi. All of this matters. Does it mean Lee is guaranteed a spot in the top 2? No. But we have a year for her to make her case, and I don’t see her getting less than 20% of the primary electorate, especially with a Kamala endorsement likely in the pipeline

Porter and Schiff have the same problem but it affects Katie more. They have brands that don’t connect to audiences that matter here. They have money and name recognition, sure. But Katie is gonna lose a lot of her current supporters to Lee because she’s white and representation matters to young progressives. She needs more than money and fame. What labor unions will come out for her? How will she appeal to communities of color in a way that can compete with Lee? Can she win the environmentalist vote? All the people pumping her up can point to is her internet celebrity status and fundraising chops - all of which won her mentor Elizabeth Warren a fourth place finish here in CA, and only extremely wealthy, terminally online, predominantly gay communities like weho and Palm Springs.

The Bernie vs Warren parallel is huge here, and I personally think if Bernie endorses Lee like I suspect he will, it will be even harder for Katie Porter to claim
The progressive mantle.

In the end, I see Lee cleaning up NorCal, black communities, and the left. That should be enough to get into a runoff. I still don’t see Schiff or Porter having any actual votes locked up. Just LA times polls with high soft numbers and small sample sizes and Democratic Party hacks, many of whom also seem to like Lee

[coloradocowboi]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

Hot take: Barely any of these endorsements matter.

Perhaps Harris making one could swing a few voters here, but I doubt she or Newsom bother to actually throw their support behind a candidate. Likewise Biden or Obama, whose endorsements would at least matter to a degree.

Influencers getting involved will matter more. Identity politics will matter more. And bc it’s California random trends and social media will matter more. The smartest thing Katie Porter can do prolly is become a tik tok influencer