Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[coloradocowboi]

https://www.foxla.com/news/la-mayoral-candidates-to-meet-in-first-public-forum-on-sunday
First debate among the major candidates will be happening tonight Stonewall dems will vote to endorse after the debate so this will be interesting the forum should be streamed here. Karen Bass, Joe Buscaino, Kevin De Leon, Mike Feuer and Jessica Lall will be attending.
https://www.facebook.com/StonewallDemocraticClub


In other news, the LA county sheriff's race has gotten really ugly. Villanueva has accused Rhambo of being a member of one of the deputy gangs (While also claiming deputy gangs don't exist). Rhambo responded by sending a shirtless video to a reporter to prove he doesn't have any affiliated tattoos. Villanueva and Rhambo's campaign's have been blowing up my phone with texts attacking each other. Villanueva has also accused Rhambo of being a Republican who switched party affiliations to run for Sheriff.
https://twitter.com/AleneTchek/status/1469369357247545344
https://twitter.com/KateCagle/status/1420841905571516418
Its pretty hilarious that Villanueva is accusing Rhambo of being a republican seeing as how just last week Villanueva headlined a LA county GOP fundraiser
https://twitter.com/AleneTchek/status/1466918677580640258
https://twitter.com/Rhambo4Sheriff/status/1469355456606851072

I like Eric Strong's platform more than Rhambo but it seems pretty clear that the race is gonna come down to Rhambo vs Villanueva. Im not sure how I'm gonna vote in the primary yet but this is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and important races in the county.

Caruso's entry will benefit Bass above everyone else by moving the Overton window even further to the Right and giving her a boogeyman to keep the Left in line while she drifts to the center. The arrogance behind his decision is hilarious though. I would bet Caruso ends up in fourth place, no matter what he spends, behind Bass, KDL, and Buscaino. The dude is delusional. Hopefully all the negative press he inevitably will receive will convince the USC Board of Trustees to dump this loser.

I'm guessing I'll end up voting for Rhambo just because Villanueva is so evil. But I might just not vote at this point. 

[coloradocowboi]

https://www.foxla.com/news/la-mayoral-candidates-to-meet-in-first-public-forum-on-sunday
First debate among the major candidates will be happening tonight Stonewall dems will vote to endorse after the debate so this will be interesting the forum should be streamed here. Karen Bass, Joe Buscaino, Kevin De Leon, Mike Feuer and Jessica Lall will be attending.
https://www.facebook.com/StonewallDemocraticClub


In other news, the LA county sheriff's race has gotten really ugly. Villanueva has accused Rhambo of being a member of one of the deputy gangs (While also claiming deputy gangs don't exist). Rhambo responded by sending a shirtless video to a reporter to prove he doesn't have any affiliated tattoos. Villanueva and Rhambo's campaign's have been blowing up my phone with texts attacking each other. Villanueva has also accused Rhambo of being a Republican who switched party affiliations to run for Sheriff.
https://twitter.com/AleneTchek/status/1469369357247545344
https://twitter.com/KateCagle/status/1420841905571516418
Its pretty hilarious that Villanueva is accusing Rhambo of being a republican seeing as how just last week Villanueva headlined a LA county GOP fundraiser
https://twitter.com/AleneTchek/status/1466918677580640258
https://twitter.com/Rhambo4Sheriff/status/1469355456606851072

I like Eric Strong's platform more than Rhambo but it seems pretty clear that the race is gonna come down to Rhambo vs Villanueva. Im not sure how I'm gonna vote in the primary yet but this is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and important races in the county.

Caruso's entry will benefit Bass above everyone else by moving the Overton window even further to the Right and giving her a boogeyman to keep the Left in line while she drifts to the center. The arrogance behind his decision is hilarious though. I would bet Caruso ends up in fourth place, no matter what he spends, behind Bass, KDL, and Buscaino. The dude is delusional. Hopefully all the negative press he inevitably will receive will convince the USC Board of Trustees to dump this loser.

I'm guessing I'll end up voting for Rhambo just because Villanueva is so evil. But I might just not vote at this point. 

Who are you backing for mayor>

Nobody. My focus, if I'm still in the city, will be primarying Mitch O'Farrrell. I expect I'll hold my nose and vote Bass. She's already disappointing me though.

We will have two ballot initiatives on homelessness. One will essentially criminalize it by banning "urban camping," like my hometown Denver did. Sadly, I expect it to pass by a similarly high margin. People have run out of sympathy, and while my religious and political beliefs urge me to never give up on the seemingly hopeless, I get that people are fed up. Where I live DT it is dangerous most of the time, there is literal human feces everywhere, and things need to improve from a health and safety standpoint.

However, just beating and arresting them is only going to prolong their homelessness. We need a carrot to match the stick, but I'm a lot less certain that people in the city will vote for the other ballot initiative, which will raise taxes on 5 million+ real estate transactions to pay for public housing. This is a good move, because the central problem in LA is income inequality. We just need some kind of big and bold investment that will drive prices down, and it's obviously not going to come from the real estate industry itself.

However, LA is a very classist and elitist place, and despite the fact that it would only negatively impact the .00001% of our population, you can expect the throngs who worship money to vote against it and plenty of "moderate" but uninformed voters to succumb to the propaganda from the real estate industry. It's gonna be a close call, but I wonder if it would be more likely to pass if Bass would be less cagey on whether she supports it. She is almost a shoo-in to win, and could expend the political capital for sure, but I'm disappointed that thus far she has been equivocal.

[coloradocowboi]

Joe Buscaino drops out, endorses Rick Caruso.

City Councilman Joe Buscaino on Thursday announced he is dropping out of the Los Angeles mayoral race and endorsing billionaire developer Rick Caruso.

"Rick and I agree on the playbook to solve the city's pressing issues," Buscaino said in a statement. "Today's decision did not come easy, but the future of Los Angeles is my priority. Together we will make Los Angeles cleaner and safer for all."

Hmmm and a week ago, he was insinuating (correctly) that Caruso is a privileged rich kid who can’t solve any of the city’s problems because he epitomizes them. Guess your dignity is easy to sell when you’re polling at 1% and 0% as a second choice. Rick Caruso is running on two things, homelessness and crime, and he is going to have a very hard time explaining why he is qualified to solve these problems when he: 1. Has served on the police board for decades and missed almost half of its meetings; 2. Became a billionaire only through the exact kind of corrupt, city hall agreements that arbitrarily jack up this city’s housing prices. I still think that there are just enough people here who understand the absurdity of his argument that he can’t win.

I don’t see this moving the dial, and I do thankfully see the Caruso momentum sliding. I still expect him to make it into the run off, but I did my duty, held my nose, and voted for Kevin de Leon this weekend to try to prevent that. I fully expect him to overperform his polls, as will Karen Bass and Caruso as undecideds make their moves. 

A few other outstanding, interesting questions for those interested in LA politics:

1. Will Kenneth Mejia continue to cruise in his election for city controller or will the establishment finally turn on him?

2. Who tf goes to round 2 of our sheriff election against Villanueva?

3. How do Gil Cedillo and Mitch O’Farrell’s progressive challengers do in the June primary? If either incumbent is held under 50%, like David Ryu was, they are in deep trouble

4. Will conservadems claim Mike Bonin’s seat? Can they retain Koretz’s and Buscaino’s?

[coloradocowboi]

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It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

[coloradocowboi]

People in cities are unhappy with the status quo, especially in regards to crime and homelessness, which has opened the door for candidates like Eric Adams and now Caruso. Can't keep sweeping these issues under the rug, people are fed up.

The only ones who want to sweep it under the rug are the establishment in Los Angeles the Garcetti, De Leon types. They sweep the unhoused from neighborhood to neighborhood while defunding our social services in favor of the already way too large police budget and placing the unhoused in temporary housing. 
The left wants to build more affordable housing and social housing to lower housing costs and deal with poverty to lower crime. While the right like Caruso wants to increase the criminalization of poverty with measures such as LAMC 41.18 and just remove the homeless from the city and allow black rock and other private equity firms to continue buying property and building single unit housing that is way to expensive for anyone whose not a millionare to afford.

Caruso can easily be framed as out of touch in a similar way as Mike Bloomberg in the presidential race. Caruso builds luxury developments and has not even tried to build affordable. Years ago he got a sweetheart deal on taxpayer owned land where he doesn't have to pay the $1 (yes, one dollar) rent on the property unless it earns 12% profit. That threshold has never been reached and the vacancy rate in the retail spaces has always been high. Every space is empty now.

And a couple of months ago he got a deal to buy the property at far below market values to build luxury housing. He didn't offer to build one affordable unit. He's not anti-establishment, but business establishment on the lines of Mitt Romney.

Based and based.

But it's a really dark moment for democracy and this city. Caruso was given tons of free positive media and spent $40 million on the rest.

[coloradocowboi]

It’s actually outrageous how centrist media outlets like the NYT and Atlantic cited this election as a sign “progressives have gone too far” when the real story has been that progressives won big in LA.

Eunice’s Hernandez is now leading Gil Cedillo. There is a movement underway here that elite media is completely ignoring. And, yes, Snitch O’Farrell is next.

[coloradocowboi]

I think Caruso is going to edge out in the runoff, but progressives won today a hard earned victory.

The progressive total vote is like 20% more than Caruso's #.

That part. It's hard to see Caruso pulling many votes from de León or Viola voters. He's going to be framed as a billionaire trying to by the mayoralty and that's a message that will resonate with progressives even if Bass wasn't their choice in the primary.

It's more likely imo that he barely improves on his percentage and loses like 65-35 in the fall. He spent an ungodly sum already leveraging a v divisive issue. What else can he do?

[coloradocowboi]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

He and Martinez need to resign now. Absolutely disgraceful.

[coloradocowboi]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

I was just over there. It's just really sad.

I'm watching live rn. O'Farrell is a crook like the other three, but he is playing this moment beautifully.

He just announced support for expanding the City Council, which is a rly big deal... and would almost guarantee his comeback when he loses re-election to Hugo Soto-Martinez this November.

He also just announced that Nury, Kevin, and Gil should resign, which is the death knell and maybe also a revitalization moment for his own campaign.

[coloradocowboi]

I've never understood why the left rails so hard against Mitch. How is what happened at Echo Park Lake any different than Centennial Park in CD11 or the freeway underpasses in CD4?

And now the left is going to be okay with the members elevating CURREN PRICE to Council President? Yikes. Hopefully it ends up being Krekorian.

“The left” is a figment of Fox News’ imagination. A lot of progressives in the city don’t like Mitch because he takes tons of developer cash and has not always been on the side of renters. Kinda like the rest of the city council with whom who voted unanimously for years?

Also the only leftist I’ve heard weigh in on this is Eunisses, and she said Krekorian or Marqueece. Nobody anywhere in any “leftist” forum I’ve seen in LA has proposed Curren Price? Imo it should be Marqueece, but then “the right” which in LA just means rich ppl and their chosen city councilmen like Koretz and Lee would block that

[coloradocowboi]

Clearly, the ideological right, left, and center of the City Council are skewed compared to everywhere else because Republicans barely exist here (i.e. the right is Buscaino and Lee; the left is Bonin, Raman, Hernandez, etc; the center is Krekorian, O'Farrell, Rodriguez, etc).

I'm not talking about what ideas are being fielded on twitter or in other online forums. I'm talking about who can actually make it to 8 votes this Tuesday when only 12 members vote. I'm hoping they can come to a consensus fast otherwise it could get brutal.

It seems to be a race between Price and Krekorian and I am worried about a blunder if Price gets it over Krekorian. If Price becomes Council President there will be hideous digital advertising billboards up on the sides of City Hall within days. (Only half kidding)...

Or, it would be fascinating - since Tuesday's meeting will be virtual - if Kevin and Gil try to show up and vote.

Where are you getting this information? I have not heard anything about Curren Price. Again, Eunisses Hernandez herself said she’d be fine with Koretz as a caretaker. Not that it would matter that much because they both suck.

I really don’t understand your issue with Curren Price tho. Sounds like some weird classist screeching about how he just doesn’t have the same “character” as the also bought and paid for Paul Koretz.

[coloradocowboi]

You both need to think about this council with more agility. The battle lines are way more murky than the characterizations in this thread. Curren Price has literally stated publicly and privately he wants the job, and he is actively lobbying for the job both publicly and privately.

Has anyone seen The Reef at 1933 S. Broadway? You can literally see the digital billboards on it glowing at night driving on the 10 East all the way from La Brea. There are so many layers to the project that are offensive to the City and CD9, but the signage (which required legislative action by the council to be approved) is the most prominent.

The independent expenditure committees supporting Price's campaigns have always been heavily funded by the billboard and advertising industries. He has actively blocked/slowed proposed regulations limiting signage both in his district and citywide (the comprehensive signage ordinance update has been languishing for 15+ years). Signage regulations are a major issue citywide, particularly in less affluent districts where it creates visual blight, adversely affects nearby property values, and can promulgate messages/products that prey on low income/communities of color.

Koretz's fundamental problem is that he is incredibly unintelligent.

Krekorian is widely regarded as the most intelligent current member, although ideologically he is at the center of this council. He is term limited and would be a steady hand for the duration the council is in turmoil (which, sadly, could continue well after even the post-election membership shakeup in December).

You’re telling me to “think with more agility” when I’m the one citing actual information and you’re citing what exactly?

I read the Politico article this morning and it’s the first I’ve heard about Price and btw I’ve been at city hall three times since this fiasco happened and live down the street.

Meanwhile these IEs that you are talking about are not only not “progressive” but also have spent time defending Price against opponents, including his most recent write in opponent, who are backed by progressives in the city? So again you’re blaming “the left” for an appointment he hasn’t even gotten yet when “the left” is the only political force in the city that has reliably opposed all of his campaigns. It makes no sense. Your actual beef is with the real estate lobbyists, and if so then I have really bad news about both Blumenfield and Krekorian.

I’m also gonna go out on a limb here and say that you are blaming your strawman “the left” because many people, including a large number of centrists, are backing Price merely because he’s black. The unfortunate reality is optics matter, specially to the centrists on the council who definitely won’t be changing their policy outlook anytime soon.

Again, Eunisses said she’d back Krekorian anyway, and I hear that’s also Nithya’s position. Maybe if we had more leftists on the council, we could get Marqueece - who would be better than any of the other options. Also again, I also like Krekorian the most of our three Bad options but he’s still a real estate pawn. We can and must do better

[coloradocowboi]

Okay, now I understand.

Here's where I see the post-election situation:

"the left": Nithya, Eunisses, Marqueece, Hugo*, Erin Darling*

the "center left": Krekorian, Yaroslavsky*, Hutt

the "center right:" Rodriguez, Price, Koretz

the "right": Blumenfield, Lee, Yebri*, Park*

w/ KDL/his replacement and Nury's replacement as wildcards. Nobody has an easy path to a majority tho

[coloradocowboi]

A few things...

1. McOsker is the biggest ? on city council. I'm obviously not a fan, but think he is def more principled than Buscaino and maybe even his opponent sadly. He also will represent the most ignored parts of the city, many of which (the Black/Latino sections most likely) won't even be his constituents by the time he runs for re-election if this redistricting package is rly pushed through in 2024. Will be interesting to see whether he becomes a "conservative" on the council or takes a more centrist approach. My guess is the latter because he has designs on being mayor one day and can see clearly from Caruso's example that this city has absolutely no appetite for empowering the "conservative" faction.

2. Rodriguez was honestly v lucky to not be in the room because she is maybe the worst of all Latino reps on city council. On homelessness issues, she is truly heartless. Also in the pocket of big real estate. Wonder where she will go from here, because she is extremely isolated now, losing her allies (Wesson, Nury, Koretz) very quickly. She will be primaried again for sure, but I wonder if she might pivot to the left to head that off. Heather Hutt is her natural ally, because she's in a similar predicament.

3. Yikes. I forgot about Heather Hutt. She should've resigned too tbh and I've heard a good number of Black people in the city say the same thing. She's DOA in a primary, but also a useful tool for Herb Wesson, Caruso, the machine, etc. I actually feel v bad for her. She was loudly and publicly used. But I also expected more from her than "I'm not a tool, let's have redistricting reform." This seat has a lot of potential for progressives and I fully expect a Black progressive to challenge her.

4. Price, also yikes. He and Monica's cynical ploy to use identity politics to keep the city gov't in the hands of big real estate disgusts me. His primary was a huge missed opportunity, but the vote shows he is essentially a nobody on city council. I feel bad for his constituents

5. Mejia vs Koretz is getting nasty, and Koretz is clearly using the same bot source as Rick Caruso because you can't even type Kenneth's name on Twitter or Reddit without attracting trolls. This will be the closest race, I think

6. Because unfortunately, I expect Hydee to thwomp Faisal Gill. Her signs are everywhere. She's running a terrific campaign. I did not vote for her bc I have read literally dozens of empirical studies that show that prosecuting petty misdemeanors is a waste of gov't resources that doesn't make us much safer. But I considered it. I fully expect her to win

7. Caruso seems to have peaked early again, and this week the momentum feels like it's falling out from under him. The LA Times called him out on his bullsh**t this AM, bc he clearly knows more about Tyndall and Kelly than he's letting on. He's a terrible candidate and the problem is that whenever his money shifts the spotlight to him instead of trashing Karen Bass, he still looks bad because he sucks so badly. He's a "political outsider" who actually is just a real estate billionaire who got rich precisely bc he was cozy w/ city hall. He's a "democrat" who is clearly a conservative republican lol. He's a rich guy, which these days is actually a - in most of southern california. He's a terrible candidate for mayor in a place like LA. So, I expect him to go down and prolly by a healthy margin

8. Buttt.... boy Karen Bass is gonna have a lot on her hands: factional city hall, gascon's re-election looming in the background, and really vibrant and growing social movements. Buckle up, LA (I'm also planning to leave lol)

[coloradocowboi]

My synopsis of Curren Price's speech after being elevated to President Pro Tem of the City Council:

"I definitely in no universe was invited to that meeting, I never heard of it, and because I had never heard of it, then there’s definitely no way I was invited to that meeting. Wait, what meeting is everyone talking about? I am so unaffiliated with that meeting I don’t even know what meeting we’re talking about anymore.”

He is such a dumb***. Almost got unseated by a write in iirc. Makes me wonder why he didn’t face serious opposition?

[coloradocowboi]

Caruso gets an unlikely endorsement

https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1585332152958214144?s=46&t=T58nzbECglMS...

They are all gonna rush to get a tulsi gabbard contract and may very well have been plants to begin with. But sadly I think the more likely answer is even “socialist” internet celebrities will do anything for attention. I will not miss people retweeting that gasbag tho.

[coloradocowboi]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he won.

as for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

I really need someone to explain to me how 1/10th of voters in this city are pulling the lever for both the "eat the rich" guy and a billionaire.

I expect Hugo to win. No idea about Darling, but would be truly appalled and not at all surprised to hear the roidheads on the Westside sent a fash to the city council.

The last big ? for me is whether or not outstanding ballots are blue enough to lift Lindsey Horvath past Bob Hertzberg for City Council. it's weird he's winning on such an anti-establishment occasion. Probably because Horvath is tied to Sheila Kuehl