Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[DINGO Joe]

US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,00

Fell across every state, demo and age group.  Really can't blame it on the pandemic as only some December births could have been impacted.  When combined with a 530,000 increase in deaths, natural growth fell to 220,000 from 890,000 in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2010

In 2018, four states had more deaths than births WV, VT, NH and ME.  The map for 2020 looks like this

Blue=more deaths than births

Births

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf

Deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[DINGO Joe]

WV had 17.000 births last year and 26.000 deaths ...

Well, you're rounding things a bit far there, but they really weren't hit that hard by the COVID.  It's just the way their population pyramid is plus below average public health.

[DINGO Joe]

I’m actually surprised NY had still more births than deaths ...

Well, they still have immigrants to help keep the birth rate up some and as we all know, New Yorkers go that Great Elephant Graveyard (Florida) to die.   Which is why Florida can simultaneously be fast growing and upside down in natural growth.  That applies to other "retiree" states like AZ and SC too, it's just not as extreme.

[DINGO Joe]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Well, it's not different from WNC or NGA.  Coal mining really barely extended into TN.  Also I-81 is a major corridor.

[DINGO Joe]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Retirees mostly, also Knoxville gets some college+ yuppie influx. 

Let's not forgot that wonderous mecca--Dollywood

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, put me in the camp that the birth/death immigration numbers are fine, but the migration numbers are a mess.

[DINGO Joe]

From the CDC provisional death board, I dug out the infant deaths for 2020 and 2021.  The number of infant deaths fell 1300 in 2020.  From 20900 to 19600.  That corresponded to a decline in births of 140000.  The infant death number for 2021 is at 18935 and probably won't hit 19000, so that corresponds to a decline of about 50-70000 births in 2020.  It looks like deaths will end up about 60-70000 higher in 2021 vs 2020.  So natural growth looks to be 110000 to 140000 less than 2020.

[DINGO Joe]

The overall increase in deaths for March 1st 2020 to the end of Feb 2022 will be 1.3 million for the 24 months of the pandemic

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm