Louisiana as a future swing state? (user search)
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  Louisiana as a future swing state? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Louisiana as a future swing state?  (Read 2626 times)
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« on: December 13, 2020, 07:46:14 PM »

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

What makes you think Urban black voters in NOLA swung R?
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2020, 07:57:23 PM »

SC is obviously more likely as the East Coastopolis continues to grow. 

Black turnout was quite poor this year in Louisiana especially in comparison to white turnout (74.47 vs 63.09)  the closest white/black turnout was 2012 (69.4 vs 67.2)  So you'd need something close to parity plus the map Dabbing Santa posted for an outside chance.  Very unlikely.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2020, 08:03:32 PM »

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

What makes you think Urban black voters in NOLA swung R?
Not swung, will swing.
Big difference.

Meh, dubious.  And New Orleans at least from a voting stand point may not be as black as you think it is.
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