KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath wins Franklin by 4 pts

There is obviously a massive Discrepancy between the Mail-In Vote and the In-Person Vote.

I suspect this and I voiced that a week ago on Election Day/Night. No one wanted to believe me!

Yeah, by no one, i assume you mean everyone

[DINGO Joe]

Booker+24 with 150k total votes in jeff

Booker only 300 votes behind statewide.  Of course it all downhill from here

[DINGO Joe]

Booker does win Boyle county (small college there)

[DINGO Joe]

If I had to guess I'd say McGrath would be able to gain the lead? There doesn't seem to be enough friendly areas for Booker left.

WaPo has her up by less than 2k votes now. Outstanding counties are likely going to be favorable to her. Final margin may be super slim and we might see quite a few challenges from the Booker campaign.

It's hilarious how bad Booker is doing in the Rual Areas. If you look at the NBC D-SEN Map Booker won only 9 Counties thus far. You never win Statewide doing that!

Oh, you could.  Just has to be the right 9 counties.  And in the end Booker is only going to win 4 counties (possibly 5)

[DINGO Joe]

Fun fact--2008 D primary
Oldham (suburban Louisville)  6900 votes Hillary wins 56-41
Pike (largest coal county) 14200 votes Hillary wins 91-7

2020 D primary
Oldham 8300 votes McGrath 47-46
Pike 5500 votes McGrath 50-30

Oldham > Pike

[DINGO Joe]

Good thing McGrath has her 40M dollars, she should coast on that until E-day and not drain funds from actual electable Senate candidates.

So are we gonna do the thing where we pretend that a progressive is somehow more electable than a centrist in a red state?

There's a thing called turnout, that a certain centrist in 2016 didn't get in red states in her general election. Nor in purple states either.
Labels are pointless - what matters is activating a solid base.

Just like Bernie did?

[DINGO Joe]

Not sure how much effort I want to put into this cuz I don't really have a horse in this race, in fact if I had lived in Kentucky I would have been likely to vote for Booker.  I'm just annoyed by the Bernies who seem so upset by this.

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 

Neither candidate would win, because KY is too rural and too white to be competitive in the current electoral environment.  As far as McGrath sucking up too much money that could go to other campaigns, i don't really buy that narrative either.  A Booker win would have sparked a bit of a fundraising frenzy in some corners and the DSCC would have felt compelled to give him finacial support because they gave McGrath support.  At this point KY should be like 10th or 12th on the DSCC.  Maybe McGrath's weak showing will help them keep it in perspective (if they were having trouble). 

[DINGO Joe]

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 

Soccer moms in other states, maybe...

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?

Have you ever been to Georgetown? It's a pretty town — the college campus is gorgeous and there's a nice little stretch of buildings downtown — but it does not feel like the prototypical white suburb. Lexington's just not a big enough town to have suburbs in the way that major cities do.

Booker won college towns and blacks, McGrath carried the rest. It's a little silly to look any deeper than that to come up with some sort of "typical McGrath voters" — when you're winning 70+ counties, the McGrath voter looks pretty much the same as the median voter.

Yeah, I've been there.  It's nice.  The counties aren't straight up suburban but a mixed of old courthouse towns and subdivisons of people who are certainly commuting to Lexington or Frankfort or all the distilleries in between.  They are growing and casting more votes in the D primary as opposed to the east and west rural counties, so it does matter more who votes for McGrath  there.  If the primary had had a turnout by county comparable to 2008 McGrath would have won by 8-10 points.  I don't think Booker could have cracked the decling rural county vote vs McGrath but he might have been able to make inroads in greater Lexington and NKY if he had started earlier, been better organized, etc... but he didn't.