Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[DINGO Joe]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

Perhaps they aren't beginning from scratch.

Brownback is coming back!

[DINGO Joe]

VERMIN SUPREME 2018!!!!

Free Ponies For All!

[DINGO Joe]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

About the only way I envision Coyler winning the primary at this point is if the Barnett voters abandon him en masse and roll over to Coyler.

[DINGO Joe]

Are the R numbers for Crawford correct?  Seems a bit of an outlier from their neighbors.

[DINGO Joe]

I'd like for KKK to edge ahead before the JoCo dump so his supporters can claim voter fraud for Colyer edging it out.

[DINGO Joe]

I'd like for KKK to edge ahead before the JoCo dump so his supporters can claim voter fraud for Colyer edging it out.

That is probably what will happen.

Since Crawford looks like an error, he probably is slightly ahead right now.

Yes, you are correct. They need to add roughly 900 votes to Kobach.

See everybody could be happy, you'd get Coyler's primary victory and the KKKers get to scream what they love to scream about.  Of course, they may not show up in the fall which would make Kelly the likely winner.  

[DINGO Joe]

Is Colyer likely to maintain his 15% margin in Johnston, or will it tighten considerably? The only way Kobach wins is if Johnston tightens quite a bit.

I'd guess KKK will do better than the early vote, but that some Barnett voters migrate to Coyler and he wins JoCo by a comfy margin.  

[DINGO Joe]

Alrighty, it's time for the lizard people to release the JoCo vote, some of us have to work tomorrow

[DINGO Joe]

They fixed Crawford and KKK is up by 358, release JoCo already

[DINGO Joe]

JoCo Elections Officer just said 2-3 hours until we’ll know the full results lol

Lmao.

Yeah, they're practically trying to give Kobach ammunition to cry foul.

Quality troll

[DINGO Joe]

JoCo Elections Officer just said 2-3 hours until we’ll know the full results lol

Lmao.

Yeah, they're practically trying to give Kobach ammunition to cry foul.

Quality troll

Not saying there'd actually be any substance. But I'm willing to bet Kobach points this out if he does lose and then cry "muh voter fraud"

That what I want to see,  KKK claiming the Rs are cheating frauds.  Drive his voters away from the polls in the fall.  Of course JoCo isn't being slow to troll Kobach it's just fun to say.

[DINGO Joe]

It looks like everything is in except JoCo and KKK is up by 807.  I'd expect Coyler to win the remaining JoCo by at least 5-6000 but what do I know.

[DINGO Joe]

It looks like everything is in except JoCo and KKK is up by 807.  I'd expect Coyler to win the remaining JoCo by at least 5-6000 but what do I know.

Well JoCo has some updated numbers and they aren't good for Colyer hard to tell who is going to win now.  Added about 50 precincts and Colyer didn't gain ground.

[DINGO Joe]

If I read the JoCo web site correctly, they haven't even reported all the early votes.  Obviously something actually has gone horribly wrong.

[DINGO Joe]

Another 90 precincts and Colyer cut the margin by about 200 votes.  Still can't tell if all the early/absentee was counted.  It's on pace to be within a couple of hundred either way. 

On the congressional side, Davids is making up ground rapidly and should slingshot past the Missouri guy.

[DINGO Joe]

I was also wrong in thinking that Barnett backers on election day would roll over to Colyer.  Barnett is actually doing better on election day in JoCo than in the early vote.

[DINGO Joe]

Likely D nominee in KS-03?

Davids is dominating all of JoCo and will win.

[DINGO Joe]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

[DINGO Joe]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

Well, he did have a base, just a very small one and given the primary rules in KS, the available pool of voters for the D primary in the rural part of the state is pretty darn small, so it's just kind of hard to see how it could have worked under any circumstance.

[DINGO Joe]

Who's to blame for the Republican race fiasco?  It's those damn kids

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216330705.html

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Damn vote stealing kids

[DINGO Joe]

With the caveats that very few votes seem to be added today and that JoCo hasn't reported anything, Coyler seems to be treading water--still 150-200 behind

[DINGO Joe]

Margin is down to 77 with the major counties in except Shawnee.  Must have been another error that bumped Coyler another 100 because none of the major counties had that kind of difference.  I think Reno pushes it back to 100 when they officially post.

[DINGO Joe]

[

Just to give everyone an idea on how close this race is, if JoCo's provisional ballots break as the county has votes, the margin would narrow to 39 votes statewide.

Well, if Sedgewick's did the same, then Kobach's lead would grow and Sedgewick actually has more provisionals, despite being a smaller county.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029016458364375040

Just for reference JoCo started with 1821 provisionals so they'll be counting 64.5% of the provisionals

Sedgwick is starting with 1900 provisionals

[DINGO Joe]

^ IIUC - reasons why provisionals must be "more liberal", then ED voting apply to Sedgwick to? No?

They may be more Dem than election day, but how they break within the Rs is an open question.