Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[TomC]

I think the Dems will get one surpirse seat- and I'm going with Va. That would make the Senate 50R/48D/2I.

[TomC]

I challenge Republicans to give me a reason why Harold Ford will lose this election. He's running a nearly perfect campaign, he's got a COH advantage,  he's got an opponent who is too liberal on abortion and love raising taxes. Here are a some recent headlines from this race:

"Ford camp says Corker failed to pay taxes on 2 companies."

"Ford on offensive against Corker."

"President may bring Corker cash – at a price."

"Corker misses a chance not debating in Jackson."

"Public should see Corker's taxes."

"Ford says Corker did not respond to 911 concerns."

"DSCC Ad Labels Bob Corker "Big Oil" Republican."

Need a say more? The momentum has shifted in this race.

Ford is gaining because of his strong, positive message and because Tennessee will say no to a flip-flopping, tax-hiking, wishy-washy, prevaricator who will jeopardize America's security. People died in Chattanooga because Corker slashed the 9-11 budget. With America's security at stake, can we afford Bob Corker's dangerous incompetence?

It's not fair, but it's what people remember:

http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050527/NEWS0201/505270452"]

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_4921183,00.html 

http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/index.cfm?section=9&screen=news&news_id=49278

[TomC]

Corker's problem is with Republicans. For a good six months two Republican candidates and their supporters pummeled Corker to the point die hards thought he might as well be a Democrat. If people believe what Harold Ford says (and he has been consistently a center right Dem over the years) then he will get a decent middle of the road vote. Corker will get some middle of the road vote because Ford's family is seen by many as corrupt (though they won't provide any evidence that junior himself has ethics problems, and the federal rules are much stricter than the state's.

So, again, the problem for Corker is getting those Republicans back into his camp. And Republicans here are pissed at many in their party. Right wing radio hosts, namely Steve Gill, are basically telling Republicans to stay home or elect Dems to show the GOP they won't elect insincere conservatives. The main issue is immigration, and Corker's got an ad, but doesn't have a great record. Also, populist Republicans are ticked at the lack of fiscal discipline in DC. Many will certainly still show up and vote GOP, but how many will stay home? That's the problem Corker's got to seriously face. It's his to lose, but it could happen.