Coming from a New Jerseyan, the race in NJ will be MUCH closer than expected. New Jersey has a lot of blue collar workers who feel like the Democrats have forgotten about them. Driving through NJ suburbs, one can find many Trump and Bernie signs but almost no Hillary signs.
With that being said, Hillary will win NJ. But it is certainly not a gimme like it usually is.
Not in my neck of the woods.
I see Bernie signs, and I see Hillary signs but I've yet to see a trump sign. I've seen plenty of Trump bumper stickers though.
Hillary will win NJ by double digits easy, maybe not by 2012 margins but 2008 is doable.
Edit: And if I can ad, if you check the RCP for NJ in 2008 and 2012. There are plenty of single digit polls for Obama. There's even a McCain plus +2 by Rasmussen.