Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

It is more then likely I have overestimated the Tories, as a last minute surge to the Liberals will make some of my predictions wrong. I guess I will buy you a coffee if the Tories get below 36, although I doubt it will be that bad of a night for them.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.

I averaged 100-200 before the election, 300-500 during the campaign, and the last couple of days have been 1000+. I don't see me getting 35,000 today, but then again it's just a provincial election.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

Liberals will do better in ridings like Brampton West and Mississauga South thanks to a smaller NDP vote, yes. As for Brant, it is one seat I am a bit hesitant on; if I am wrong about one riding it will be Brant (and hopefully Ottawa Centre! )

[Hatman 🍁]

Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.

Right, but he had to defeat an incumbent to win in 2008.

[Hatman 🍁]

Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO

Those seats have Liberal incumbents. Kenora-RR has no incumbent.

It's why Windsor West *should* be going NDP today, instead the candidate there ed things up royally, and will probably lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 92% of the ridings correct (same as EP); 308 only got 85% correct

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, a lukewarm night for sure. I did tear up on the ride home tonight though. I was the only one brave enough to predict a Liberal victory here, and I was right  Anil Naidoo was such a great guy, but too unknown to voters. He did win the sign war by far, which tells you that Liberals in this riding are too scared to admit it. Today I door knocked a poll with maybe 30 NDP signs, and just 2 Liberal signs. We won it by just 2 votes. Telling, no?

I am really excited about Singh's victory and of course in Essex. Pleasantly surprised about Kenora. Too bad we couldn't win Sudbury, and Thunder Bay-Atitkokan and I'm really surprised we lost York South-Weston.  But, I am really pumped at the fact it's a minority government.  When I did my prediction numbers, I looked a lot at the results of the 2004 federal election in Toronto, where the Liberals did quite well. They won a minority government. Maybe things will play out like they did federally. 2011 Ontario = 2004 Canada? We may have Andrea being Leader of the Opposition in 7 years

[Hatman 🍁]

Anybody know how many MPPs went down in defeat and also how many cabinet ministers were defeated.  Also as a side note I believe the NDP and PCs held onto every seat they won last time around.

I was just going to say that. Very rare that the NDP doesn't lost at least a few seats, even with massive gains. That's why I was expecting at least a loss in Kenora.

[Hatman 🍁]

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, the NDP ran a populist campaign, and mostly won in populist areas. They got hit in Toronto and in Ottawa because of this. The good thing is, there are lots of areas for the NDP to gain next time. Unfortunately, Ottawa Centre wont be one of them. Clearly, Yasir Naqvi is much more popular than he should be.

[Hatman 🍁]

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.

What happens then, do you have to write up a report? These ladies weren't lazy, they were tedious.

[Hatman 🍁]

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

I find this post offensive actually, and if I thought the moderator of this forum was impartial, I'd report it.

You chose to be there. Democracy is democracy, and the DRO counts the ballots, not you, and he counts it the way he wants to.

Well, both me and the female Liberal scrutineer were getting quite impatient. Had the counted the ballots on time, the Liberal girl wouldn't have been able to supervise the count, because she watched another poll as well. Worked out for her, I guess, but she was impatient too. And, she complained about how they were counting the ballots too. (I didn't really care).

Im sorry you took offence Teddy.

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly wealthy people voted Liberal. Hudak ran on a populist platform as well, alienating urban elites.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

[Hatman 🍁]

From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?

French Vanilla

You know, we must meet at some point. Perhaps when I'm in Toronto in March?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thunder Bay = strange. Poor campaigns there, I guess.

Holmes, I think it's just right wing Liberals switching to the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remarkable how SW Ontario has become such a wasteland for the Liberals, considering that was once their base.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bad news, people--the colour-coded poll-by-poll maps on the Global TV site have been 404'd for the past couple of days http://globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!