KS-Newsmax/VCreek/AMG - Bollier +3

[Hope For A New Era]

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

Tennessee is your typical race-polarized socially conservative southern state. It has suburbs that stubbornly refuse to realign, an unhealthy love of culture-war red meat, an excess of religion, and a severe lack of education.

Kansas is socially moderate, lacks race-polarization, and is effectively a three-party system. A Democratic governor was elected by a comfortable margin two years ago and the Republican party is on the verge of losing its legislative supermajorities (that it never really had anyway, because, again, three-party system). It's also (slightly) pro-choice according to polls, less religious and more educated than most Republican-leaning states, and its suburbs are realigning very quickly.

This is the Republican-state equivalent of Minnesota vs. Massachusetts. Massachusetts is "more Democratic," but it's also much more likely to elect a Republican to statewide office, because Massachusetts is a pragmatic and elastic state, while Minnesota is polarized and full of partisan hacks on both sides.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

He might if it means he can try & argue 6 years from now that he would've won had he been the nominee.

Hard to do that when everyone remembers you losing the gubernatorial race in 2018.