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October 21, 2020, 02:21:45 AM
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  KS-Newsmax/VCreek/AMG - Bollier +3
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Author Topic: KS-Newsmax/VCreek/AMG - Bollier +3  (Read 1794 times)
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« on: October 08, 2020, 03:04:36 PM »
« edited: October 08, 2020, 07:53:22 PM by Brittain33 »

There’s something going on in Kansas...

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2020, 03:05:04 PM »

Bollier is gonna win
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Beida
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2020, 03:06:29 PM »

Oh wow. Down by 3.5% in an internal? Not great for Republicans.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 03:07:10 PM »

Wow. I am....surprised.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2020, 03:09:10 PM »

Are they just trying to mess with us...

It's hard to try to figure out exactly where the KS/AK/MT/SC senate races stand just because of the lack of polling.

Also: noteworthy of how many undecides there are.
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Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
S019
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2020, 03:09:20 PM »

Marshall at 43% or below in another internal of his, yeah moving this to Tossup/Tilt D (bold, I know)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2020, 03:09:56 PM »

Why do they leak this poll?
Is there an anti-Marshall faction that wants to undermine his candidacy?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2020, 03:10:12 PM »


Suspect it's actually something like Marshall +2 and declining over the past month and they are releasing this poll to sound the alarm and draw attention to the race.

I do think Bollier has about a 1-in-3 chance.
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Jayde
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2020, 03:10:29 PM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2020, 03:11:48 PM »

Why would they released this if it’s an internal?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2020, 03:12:13 PM »

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2020, 03:13:10 PM »

Calling it now: This will be one of the major upsets on Election night, similar to OK-05 in 2018.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2020, 03:15:11 PM »

The Senate looks really bleak for the Rs this year.

KS, AK, SC are all real sleeper races with the potential of a big upset.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2020, 03:15:43 PM »

Calling it now: This will be one of the major upsets on Election night, similar to OK-05 in 2018.

I like the way you talk magic man

Seriously though you're right
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 03:19:51 PM »

This would be a great one to pick up--especially with the NC Senate race having significant bumps in the road.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2020, 03:20:20 PM »

Wut? Imagine if this and South Carolina are flipping while Cunningham loses...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2020, 03:20:39 PM »

Lol they are just messing with Dems.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2020, 03:21:54 PM »

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

No, it’s not. KS is not as Republican as TN, not to mention that the trends in KS are much more favorable. KS has a large College educated and suburban population, while TN has the highest population of evangelicals in the country. There is a non zero chance KS is within single digits, Trump will win TN by over 20 points. Also candidate wise, Bredesen last held office in 2011, Boiler is an incumbent state senator. This race is infinitely more winnable than TN-SEN 2018

Anyway, Tilt D.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2020, 03:25:53 PM »

Overreacting to leaked GOP internals is so Atlas, but these are so Atlas too:

This is just what I feared: The consolidation. We don't need Kansas to win the Senate, but we could sure as hell use it.

Yeah, this was inevitable. Kansas isn't a swing state, Kobach was just THAT bad.

But I agree with Mr.Phips here, we also had a GOP “internal” that had Biden up 8 in OK-05.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2020, 03:27:12 PM »

This is probably a "hey! Spend more money here!" call for attention, but if this race isn't competitive, why would they need to spend money here?

I'll admit that I did think Marshall would put this race away, and I was wrong. I still think he'll win, but it is looking far more competitive than I had imagined. The TN-SEN analogy would only work if several polls showed Marshall up by 5+ next week.
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Jayde
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2020, 03:32:30 PM »

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

The late polls in TN Senate had Blackburn up by 8 and 9 points, and the race was an 11 point spread
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2020, 03:32:51 PM »

The NRSC just dropped 7 million. That's a lot of dough for Kansas.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2020, 03:33:42 PM »

This is probably a "hey! Spend more money here!" call for attention, but if this race isn't competitive, why would they need to spend money here?

I'll admit that I did think Marshall would put this race away, and I was wrong. I still think he'll win, but it is looking far more competitive than I had imagined. The TN-SEN analogy would only work if several polls showed Marshall up by 5+ next week.


It's called a blue wave if D's do better than expected and Laura Kelly has 60 percent approval ratings, and KS voted D in 2002, 2006 and 2018, for Gov Sebelius and Gov Kelly
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Ljube
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2020, 03:33:56 PM »

Pompeo should have run.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2020, 03:34:03 PM »

This is clearly a Tilt R race. Lean R at best for the GOP. This is a competitive election.
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