CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Rose McGowan is a pathetic attention-seeker whose vanity and insanity might well have singlehandedly derailed MeToo.

This is nothing new; her ridiculous "allegations" against Bill Maher were the straw that broke the camel's back. Time everyone ignores this crazy woman until she gets the mental help she so clearly, desperately needs.

[Alben Barkley]

"Too early to call" LOL ridiculous.

If they won't call it, I will: Gavin Newsom will NOT be recalled as California governor. You heard it here first.

Maybe DDHQ will call it before everyone else as usual?

[Alben Barkley]

AAAnd Dave calls it!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1437977687201562631?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Networks just want ratings by dragging this out

[Alben Barkley]

Imagine trying to claim voter fraud cost you the election when you lose by 20-30 points hahahahahahaha

[Alben Barkley]

There is literally a higher chance that "No" wins by more than Biden did than that "Yes" wins.

Yet the networks always instacall CA on presidential election nights including last year.

[Alben Barkley]

Wtf happened in Santa Clara

MSNBC seems to think its an error

It clearly is, WaPo results show No at 78.1%

[Alben Barkley]

Santa Clara error has been corrected on MSNBC.

[Alben Barkley]

Well I think it's safe to say the CA GOP, which once produced Reagan and Nixon, is officially and totally dead.

[Alben Barkley]

Lol

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1437978736876470275?s=20

Interesting to see no gender gap between men and women with children.

[Alben Barkley]

Is it possible that all of these victories will finally give Democrats some cajones to actually get something done for the voters who keep overwhelmingly rejecting the GOP in election after election?

Well certainly this doesn't feel like the first elections after Obama won, or Trump won for that matter.

I think we may just be seeing it finally become the case that Democrats in blue states catch up to Republicans in red states as far as being lock-step partisan voters no matter what. That might be bad news for future Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, etc. types down the line. Probably bad news for bipartisanship in general in the country. But good news for Democrats who need to finally stop bringing knives to gunfights.

[Alben Barkley]

NBC calls it!

[Alben Barkley]

Who are the Trump voters who voted against the recall?

I don't know if there even are many so much as Trump voters who just stayed home this time. If so, that would fit with the theory that Republicans need Trump on the ballot to really boost turnout among low propensity voters.

[Alben Barkley]

STANISLAUS COUNTY 100% REPORTING!
ALL PRECINCTS

50.0% NO (49,604 votes)
50.0% YES (49,595 votes)

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/california-recall-election-results/2716598/


This county voted for Biden by 0.8%.

Looks like the result could well be almost indistinguishable from the presidential results.

I have to say, that surprises me. I thought Newsom would win by maybe 15 points, not 25 or so.

[Alben Barkley]

How long til the GOP rants about voter fraud?

Yesterday.

[Alben Barkley]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

I agree that CA has a lot of problems but throwing out Newsom for some crazy unqualified radio host certainly is not the solution.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1437982179586363394

Jesus, I know this is California but Republicans are absolutely dead with college whites.

Well looks like the TRENDS very much are real on both sides.

Sadly for the GOP, white educated voters are probably the single most reliable demographic in terms of turnout.

[Alben Barkley]

I watched a bit of MSNBC's coverage about 20 minutes ago and you could tell Kornacki was openly flabbergasted at the desk for not calling it yet. He was literally just trying to come up with any possible reason except the more obvious one that he'd get fired for saying on-air.

I noticed the same thing. You could tell he was trying with all his might to constrain his inner Wasserman and keep from screaming "I'VE SEEN ENOUGH!"

[Alben Barkley]

Dems do better with college whites than non-college minority groups.  Good time to remind everyone that the GOP is actively trying to make it more difficult to vote at the margins so the electorate skews more college educated white.  Can't wait for this to backfire spectacularly.

I expect a lot of dummymanders the GOP implements this year relying on "safe" Republican suburban voters.

I also wonder that if they continue to make in-roads with minorities, they MIGHT backtrack on this crap. Probably not though...

[Alben Barkley]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

I do think the post-2018 narrative that "the old Orange County is dead" wasn't wrong after all, just maybe slightly premature. I think the SoCal Rs who won narrowly last year will mostly be wiped out next year, regardless of whether or not we keep the House, so I agree with you on that. It maybe gives us more breathing room and more of a chance to hold on though. Good candidates running messages that resonate with voters will be key.

[Alben Barkley]

Chalian on CNN said that Latino men and Democrats are in a bind....

A lot of Latino men trend Republican. Some people say that they are anti-Black.

A lot of them are in the military and police, so they may be too "macho" and antiblack......

Lol, peak bronz.

Well, I guess peak bronz would be the same said in the aftermath of an NY/NJ election.

[Alben Barkley]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

I still think it cracks 20 in the final margin. The numbers in places where the vote is all in show virtually no shift from Biden's margin and in the larger counties where much of the same day vote is not in yet, Elder/"Yes" is not doing better than Trump by more than 4 or 5 points or so at the same point in the count with just mail-in voting in. Keeping in mind that Biden won by nearly 30 points, quite frankly "only" 20 points is a conservative estimate.

[Alben Barkley]

Lol, MSNBC only needed to give an hour to the recall coverage.

I wish they would give Kornacki a full-time job. I missed him! They should make it like an on-air FiveThirtyEight where it's all nerdy, data-and-number-based, fairly objective analysis with egghead guests. That would be sweet, and a hell of a step up from Joy Reid, that's for sure. Or even Chris Hayes if they have to replace a bespectacled white guy with another.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing I do suspect (and suspected even before this) is that 2022 will be absolutely devastating for blue state Republicans/red state Democrats across the board — I expect it to be an incredibly polarized straight-ticket midterm like no other before. This result also points to such an environment.

Yea I agree with this take

I think VA gov is going to be a route via the same basis

VA gov is going to be extremely close...

(X)

I think it will be a lot like this where it will be hyped up as close or even a potential upset, but ultimately T-Mac wins comfortably by a margin not all that far off from Biden's.

[Alben Barkley]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.