CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Kamala's side hoe]

Some early exit polling, this one is probably the most illuminating of the electorate:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/1437920676610985985

Californians' views on the economoy [sic] are mixed - similar percentages believe the economy is in good shape & not in good shape. Those voting "yes" have more negative views on the economy & cost of living. "No" voters have a more positive view.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Newsom only doing two points better among Latino voters than white voters. Black voters are at 19% yes.

That's pretty good for the GOP.

Not that surprising tbh. Federal D voter at all levels =/= pro-Newsom

[Kamala's side hoe]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

It still might tbh.

Who are the Trump voters who voted against the recall?

I don't know if there even are many so much as Trump voters who just stayed home this time. If so, that would fit with the theory that Republicans need Trump on the ballot to really boost turnout among low propensity voters.

The D hack in me wants to chalk it up to marginal Latino and Asian Trump voters who hate wasteful spending of taxpayer money more than they hate Newsom. But we won’t know for sure until precinct level results are available. And the exit poll crosstabs suggest to me that there are a lot of nonwhite Dems/D-leaners who hate Newsom/the status quo.

edit: Orange County specific analysis

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Lol

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1437978736876470275?s=20

Based low-income Korean and Vietnamese seniors voting for rental aid and Covid restrictions.

(To their credit, most Asian Trump supporters have been largely supportive of Covid regulations such as masking and have been vaccinated at overwhelmingly high rates)

[Kamala's side hoe]

I’m extremely extremely skeptical of the claim that trump only got 25% of the Latino vote in ca

But I definitely buy that he did better with CA Latinos than CA Asians.

[Kamala's side hoe]

L.A. county updates this evening, likely with a big pro-R batch of votes given what we saw elsewhere in SoCal yesterday.  L.A. probably falls below 70% No when this is all said and done, which would be a notbable underperformance vs. Newsom 2018/Biden 2020. 

>95% of estimated votes currently in, Yes is leading 70.7%-29.3% per NYT (as Abdullah posted).

[Kamala's side hoe]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

Probably, the last big batch was not very pro-yes


I’m looking at the city level data in OC right now.

Whites in south OC swung heavy in favor of yes, but Irvine’s result was virtually unchanged from the 2020 presidential margin

My guess is that a decent chunk of Asians who voted trump actually voted against recall, due to their support for newsom covid policy.

For example, my precinct here in rancho Santa margarita was only 3 points below Romney’s margin in my precinct in 2012.

But Irvine was way way way to the left

This will be interesting to watch going forward.  NJ and VA are most Asian and 3rd most Asian states on the East Coast, respectively.   

It’s possible that the drop off in absolute turnout was mostly from marginal Trump voters. But COVID-19 and perceptions of racism/cultural alienation from the majority are two issues where there is a relative consensus among different Asian ancestry groups, so it seems reasonable for Lower Acela corridor AAPIs to vote similarly D despite minor differences in ethnic origin and socioeconomic status from SoCal.

[Kamala's side hoe]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

The first paragraph sounds reasonable to me in that any successful R candidate will have to pick off enough dissatisfied/swingy voters from at least one of the two D coalition camps. Not a close follower of CA state politics, but I don't see why Rob Bonta would be particularly vulnerable given that he seems to be the only Dem in the upcoming primaries and his ability to play the race card.

[Kamala's side hoe]

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

CA has more registered independents than republicans

It briefly did Republicans have slightly more now
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/report-registration/154day-primary-2022
Democrats
10,275,371
46.7%
Republicans
5,271,141 
23.95%
No Party Preferance
5,039,628
22.9%

Wonder what the raw numbers were back when I > R