Does Vicente Gonzalez run in 15 or 34?

[Tekken_Guy]

Where does Vicente Gonzalez run in 2022? TX-15 or TX-34?

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Wherever he runs he loses

[GALeftist]

Wherever he runs he loses

If Gonzalez or any other Democrat is losing a Biden+15 seat even in 2022 something truly catastrophic has happened. TX-34 was drawn as a Dem pack, which is why that's almost certainly where he'll run

[Morning in Atlas]

TX34. Hopefully the f**ker loses.

[beesley]

I think I read he already plans to run in 34.

[Vosem]

He's all but said that he's running in TX-34.

Wherever he runs he loses

As currently drawn TX-34 is Biden+15. I don't think this is impossible given that the area seems to be trending right really hard and in landslides 1-2 seats like this usually fall (in 2014, Republicans picked up IL-10, which was Obama+17; in 2018, Democrats picked up NY-22, which was Trump+16), but even in an exorbitant landslide I expect most Biden+15 seats to not even be really vulnerable.

Also, usually the tendency is for successfully targeted reach seats to be seats trending away from you where you still have some downballot strength, and you can recruit good candidates and run a good campaign in a low-turnout midterm. TX-34 really doesn't fit that description -- it's incredibly, incredibly Democratic downballot!

[Mr.Phips]

He's all but said that he's running in TX-34.

Wherever he runs he loses

As currently drawn TX-34 is Biden+15. I don't think this is impossible given that the area seems to be trending right really hard and in landslides 1-2 seats like this usually fall (in 2014, Republicans picked up IL-10, which was Obama+17; in 2018, Democrats picked up NY-22, which was Trump+16), but even in an exorbitant landslide I expect most Biden+15 seats to not even be really vulnerable.

Also, usually the tendency is for successfully targeted reach seats to be seats trending away from you where you still have some downballot strength, and you can recruit good candidates and run a good campaign in a low-turnout midterm. TX-34 really doesn't fit that description -- it's incredibly, incredibly Democratic downballot!

Biden + 15 almost certainly understates Democratic strength in this area (Hillary probably won the district by 30).  On the flip side, Obama +17 very likely overstated Dem strength in IL-10 in 2014 (Rauner won it relatively easily that year) and Trump + 16 almost certainly overstated Republican strength in NY-22 (Obama basically tied there).  I’m really not seeing any Biden + 15 districts that Republicans would be able to win.  There may be a couple Biden + 10 ones that Republicans win, but I’m not seeing any Biden + 15 ones that they could actually win (Maybe Mike Garcia and Young Kim in CA if their districts get redrawn to be more Dem?).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wherever he runs he loses

If Gonzalez or any other Democrat is losing a Biden+15 seat even in 2022 something truly catastrophic has happened. TX-34 was drawn as a Dem pack, which is why that's almost certainly where he'll run

Don't bother arguing with Leroy. He is the new SN in that he simplistically overestimates Republicans everywhere.

[Spectator]

He's all but said that he's running in TX-34.

Wherever he runs he loses

As currently drawn TX-34 is Biden+15. I don't think this is impossible given that the area seems to be trending right really hard and in landslides 1-2 seats like this usually fall (in 2014, Republicans picked up IL-10, which was Obama+17; in 2018, Democrats picked up NY-22, which was Trump+16), but even in an exorbitant landslide I expect most Biden+15 seats to not even be really vulnerable.

Also, usually the tendency is for successfully targeted reach seats to be seats trending away from you where you still have some downballot strength, and you can recruit good candidates and run a good campaign in a low-turnout midterm. TX-34 really doesn't fit that description -- it's incredibly, incredibly Democratic downballot!

Biden + 15 almost certainly understates Democratic strength in this area (Hillary probably won the district by 30).  On the flip side, Obama +17 very likely overstated Dem strength in IL-10 in 2014 (Rauner won it relatively easily that year) and Trump + 16 almost certainly overstated Republican strength in NY-22 (Obama basically tied there).  I’m really not seeing any Biden + 15 districts that Republicans would be able to win.  There may be a couple Biden + 10 ones that Republicans win, but I’m not seeing any Biden + 15 ones that they could actually win (Maybe Mike Garcia and Young Kim in CA if their districts get redrawn to be more Dem?).

Using pro-choice and socially liberal Republicans as counterpoints for the IL-10 remark dramatically overstate the competitiveness of that seat in 2014. Are we going to consider West Virginia and the Republican dominance there in 2020 as overstated because Joe Manchin won there? Of course not.

[Minnesota Mike]

He was drawn into the 34th in the final legislative conference committee report so he does not even have to carpetbag to run there.