2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

As of 9/1, there were 919,315 absentee ballot requests in Wisconsin. This is 30.89% of the total electorate in the 2016 Presidential election.

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican. Here is the list:

DANE COUNTY   45.83%
MILWAUKEE COUNTY   38.17%
BROWN COUNTY   35.23%
DOOR COUNTY   33.11%
OZAUKEE COUNTY   32.91%
WAUKESHA COUNTY   32.50%
OUTAGAMIE COUNTY   31.71%
VILAS COUNTY   31.49%
KENOSHA COUNTY   30.79%
WINNEBAGO COUNTY   30.47%
BAYFIELD COUNTY   30.46%
LA CROSSE COUNTY   30.41%
SAUK COUNTY   30.01%
ROCK COUNTY   29.88%
RACINE COUNTY   29.46%
FLORENCE COUNTY   29.25%
DOUGLAS COUNTY   29.19%
MARATHON COUNTY   29.19%
CALUMET COUNTY   28.93%
IOWA COUNTY   28.84%
ASHLAND COUNTY   28.67%
PORTAGE COUNTY   28.36%
ST. CROIX COUNTY   28.34%
WASHINGTON COUNTY   27.58%
ONEIDA COUNTY   27.47%
SAWYER COUNTY   26.86%
JEFFERSON COUNTY   26.75%
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY   25.63%
COLUMBIA COUNTY   25.53%
WOOD COUNTY   25.43%
EAU CLAIRE COUNTY   25.16%
CHIPPEWA COUNTY   25.15%
WALWORTH COUNTY   25.12%
RICHLAND COUNTY   24.89%
LINCOLN COUNTY   24.88%
MENOMINEE COUNTY   24.62%
GREEN COUNTY   24.57%
IRON COUNTY   24.11%
PIERCE COUNTY   23.95%
FOREST COUNTY   23.85%
OCONTO COUNTY   23.59%
MARINETTE COUNTY   23.55%
WASHBURN COUNTY   23.44%
MANITOWOC COUNTY   23.39%
PRICE COUNTY   23.32%
WAUPACA COUNTY   22.47%
WAUSHARA COUNTY   22.24%
KEWAUNEE COUNTY   21.97%
VERNON COUNTY   21.74%
MARQUETTE COUNTY   21.62%
BURNETT COUNTY   21.62%
GREEN LAKE COUNTY   21.59%
ADAMS COUNTY   21.46%
DUNN COUNTY   21.13%
SHAWANO COUNTY   20.99%
MONROE COUNTY   20.81%
LAFAYETTE COUNTY   20.65%
FOND DU LAC COUNTY   20.64%
DODGE COUNTY   20.50%
RUSK COUNTY   20.25%
PEPIN COUNTY   20.11%
BARRON COUNTY   20.07%
TAYLOR COUNTY   18.39%
POLK COUNTY   18.02%
GRANT COUNTY   17.00%
JACKSON COUNTY   15.83%
CRAWFORD COUNTY   15.35%
JUNEAU COUNTY   14.41%
TREMPEALEAU COUNTY   13.60%
LANGLADE COUNTY   12.06%
CLARK COUNTY   8.90%
BUFFALO COUNTY   8.64%

[Gass3268]

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican.

Wasn't this also the case in the Supreme Court race this spring?

Correct. Also if we can infer anything from the Supreme Court elections, the Milwaukee Suburbs will return their ballots fast at first, but the Democratic areas will catch up by election day and the rural north will primarily vote on Election Day.

[Gass3268]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

I’m not too worried about Wisconsin. The process is so decentralized (each municipality/town counts their own votes and releases them all at once). Only place I’m worried could take time is Milwaukee as they’ve had some issues as recent as the August primary.

[Gass3268]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

I’m not too worried about Wisconsin. The process is so decentralized (each municipality/town counts their own votes and releases them all at once). Only place I’m worried could take time is Milwaukee as they’ve had some issues as recent as the August primary.

Maybe someone from Wisconsin can enlighten us here: but I think in the August primary absentee ballots and election day votes were reported together as parts of each precinct. Meaning that no election day vote in a precinct was reported unless the absentee vote in that precinct was also ready. Which in my opinion is a very good system. I might be wrong though.

Correct, Milwaukee is the only exception to this as they have more of a centralized election/counting process. At a recent Wisconsin Election Commission meeting Milwaukee expected that they would have all of their votes processed that night, with the very latest being early in the morning.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JZTessler/status/1304080846505349120?s=20

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin's Supreme Court sucks again

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1304194282631372800?s=20

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1304195150692978694?s=20

[Gass3268]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

[Gass3268]

64.4% of 18-29 year olds with VBM requests have not voted before.

https://twitter.com/cautiouslefty/status/1306448385256435713?s=21

[Gass3268]

Early vote starts tomorrow in Virginia, first time there is no need for an excuse.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/status/1306924666150420481?s=21

https://twitter.com/juliecareynbc/status/1306925152547098624?s=21

https://twitter.com/prandallcares/status/1306931118277619714?s=21

https://twitter.com/arlingtonvotes/status/1306945594762633216?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/elaijuh/status/1306954561358311426?s=21

[Gass3268]

582 ballots have been returned in Wisconsin. I'll have my first set of analysis next Tuesday. Douglas County is actually leading the pack with 76 returned ballots.

[Gass3268]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

[Gass3268]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

This is good news right? That means that they got them back relatively fast?

It means the ballots got put in the mail last Tuesday, got to the voter, the voter completed it, mailed it back, and it got back to the clerk's office today.

[Gass3268]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

This is good news right? That means that they got them back relatively fast?

It means the ballots got put in the mail last Tuesday, got to the voter, the voter completed it, mailed it back, and it got back to the clerk's office today.

Yeah, there was analysis going around that the USPS VBM issues would mostly affect rural more than suburban or urban voters, since the latter already live close to processing centers and clerks, so the delay would be minimal.

I know a lot of post offices do direct sends to clerks offices. Cottage Grove, where I'm from originally, will take ballots straight from the post office to the Village Hall, rather than have it go to Milwaukee to get processed.

[Gass3268]

71,674 returned ballots in Wisconsin, almost double of what it was yesterday. 6.42% of all absentee requests and 2.41% of all 2016 votes cast. Numerically Dane County leads the way with 16,010 returns. Percentage wise, Douglas County has returned 21.27% of their ballots or 7.34% of the total votes cast in 2016. Let me know if theres is anything else you'd like detailed.

[Gass3268]

Why is Milwaukee so low?  I would have thought Democrats would be targeting that city.  Dane voters are going to turnout anyway.

MKE is always slow at the start. They catch up later on.

It's also still early in the process, I'm guessing some of these counties with low %'s just haven't fully processed their ballots.

[Gass3268]

Some insane voter registration numbers in the Twin Cities area.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1308957781802864642?s=20

[Gass3268]

Returned ballots in Wisconsin up to 122,756 voters. That is 10.83% of all current requests, 3.90% of current registered voters, and 4.12% of all 2016 voters. Douglas County is still leading the pack percentage wise with 25.13%|7.68%|8.78%, but Dane County is rapidly catching up in % of registered voters and % of 2016 voters at 14.51%|6.79%|8.14%. There has been some discussion of the lag in Milwaukee. I've seen multiple Twitter reports of people not yet receiving their ballots or having just received them. This might be the mail issue at hand. It also appears to be inconsistant too as some counties are flying at getting ballots and getting them back. Best example of this is I got a birthday card from my Grandma here in Cook County from Dane County and she put it in the mail on Monday, but some people in Milwaukee haven't gotten ballots that were sent late last week.

[Gass3268]

46,986 more ballots returned in Wisconsin as we are now up to 169,742 total returned ballots. 14.79% of all current requests, 5.37% of registered voters, and 5.70% of all 2016 voters. Douglas County still leads with the highest % of returned ballots and % of registered voters already voting, but Dane County has passed them for the % of 2016 voters already voting at 10.47%. Returns in Milwaukee County are starting to pick up as there was a 38.8% increase in the total number of returned ballots today, up to 15,034.

[Gass3268]

Madison, Wisconsin is doing a citywide "Democracy in the Park" event tomorrow. This allows more locations for people to drop off their ballots, have clerk make sure everything was done correctly, and even be a witness if necessary.

Democracy in the Park is an event created by, planned by, staffed by, and paid for by the City Clerk’s Office.  This event will simply make it easier for residents who have received their requested absentee ballot to drop it off in person.

This is not in-person absentee voting. Poll workers will not be able to issue anyone a ballot at the park. The only way to receive a ballot right now is through the mail. In-person absentee voting begins October 20, and voters will be able to receive and cast an absentee ballot at any of our absentee voting sites at that time.

The poll workers in each City park tomorrow have taken an oath of office. They are the same dedicated public servants who administer elections at your polling place on Election Day.

Absentee voting by mail is underway. Voters may return their absentee ballots by mail, or in person. Our ballot drop boxes are still on order, and voters have been requesting a location close to home where they can deliver their ballot.

By having poll workers receive the delivery of the absentee ballot, we are able to double-check that the voter has completed the certificate envelope so the ballot can be counted at the polls on Election Day.

Voters who want a poll worker to serve as their absentee witness need to bring their ballot and envelope from home, show the blank ballot to the poll worker, mark the ballot in a way that the poll worker cannot see how they are voting, and then seal the ballot in the envelope they received in the mail.

The City Clerk’s Office is non-partisan. Regardless of who people vote for, our goal is that each eligible voter will be able to cast a ballot and have that ballot counted.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1309592116465750016?s=20

Sounds cool right? Well of course the WI-GOP wants to kill it.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1309624174336528389?s=20

We'll have to see if anything more comes of it before things start tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Some people in Milwaukee are just getting their ballots.

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1309888792871014401?s=20

[Gass3268]

43,319 more ballots returned in Wisconsin, bringing the total returned ballots to 213,061. Douglas still leads the way with % of applied returned 32.43% and Dane County leads in both raw returns at 40,721 ballots and % of 2016 vote at 13.16%. Another 4,972 were returned in Milwaukee County as folks continue to receive their ballots.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. They lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week.  

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

[Gass3268]

I hope Wiscionsinites hurry up now that the extended period of receiving mail ballots has been stricken down by the courts.

Yeah, I was never expecting that to be upheld.