2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

100,100 with still 3.5 hours left

https://twitter.com/harrisvotes/status/1316130430903615488?s=21

[Gass3268]

Can we please wait until all the numbers get officially posted, with VBM ballots included, before everyone freaks out?

[Gass3268]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

I still follow Jessica Cisneros from the March primary and it really appears that her and others are really going to town organizing folks down in the RGV to vote for Biden.

[Gass3268]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

This is ~26% higher than 2016.

[Gass3268]

Collin County with nearly 40k day 1 early votes. 31k in 2016.

Denton County with 35.9k compared to 16.9k in 2016.

Williamson County 22.7k vs 18.1k 2016

No figures out of Fort Bend but it’s very clear....

The suburbs are coming

Over 10% of 2016/18 turnout in Harris and all these suburbs on Day 1

I saw they got another 8.5K in Harris County in the first hour this morning.

[Gass3268]

It's not slowing down in Harris County.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316405206654083079?s=20

[Gass3268]

25% of all 2016 voters have voted so far in Wisconsin. Dane County hit 41% of 2016 votes today. It's possible they could hit 50% by next Tuesday when in person early voting starts in Wisconsin. Another great day for Milwaukee county as 7,374 votes came in. Milwaukee County is only 4,776 votes away from going into the lead with raw votes. Waukesha County also had a good day with 3,850 votes, only 149 less votes then Dane County. Dane County had a lot more votes counted then Waukesha County yesterday, so it might just a be a weekend counting thing, but it's something to watch moving forward.

[Gass3268]

1 million people have voted in Texas

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1316424533461655557?s=20

[Gass3268]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1316549314286682113?s=20

[Gass3268]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

can you provide me access

Does the link not work?

[Gass3268]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

So Dane's still leading the pack by a wide margin, Milwaukee is also above average in its return rate, and other leading counties are also largely Dem-friendly (although WOW is also in there). That makes sense.

I feel like these totals have barely gone up in the past few days, though. Is that normal? Or am I mistaken?

It's slowing down a little bit:

9/22-9/29: 270,511 new votes
9/29-10/6: 236,794 new votes
10/6-10/13: 171,815 new votes

With Monday being a Federal holiday, I think that explains a significant portion of the decline in week 3. If you count the ballots added today (meaning counted on Tuesday) it goes up to 210,858 new votes.

Wisconsin has one more week of only mail absentee voting, starting next Tuesday in person absentee voting starts. I would expect the pace to pick back up again. Today is also the last day to request a mail absentee ballot and register to vote online. Folks can still register to vote in person during the early vote window and on election day.

Fingers crossed Dane County can hit 50% before early voting starts. I think they'll get close, but they would need to pick up the pace a bit to hit the mark.

[Gass3268]

How is turnout in the Rio Grande Valley looking? If I were the Biden campaign, I might invest in trying to juice up mail-in turnout in counties like El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron as well. It seems like they punch way below their weight given their populations.

Turnout has been very good in El Paso and Cameron, but only slightly outpacing 2016/18 in Hidalgo and Webb. Good on the whole, though. El Paso cast over 15% of 2016/2018 votes yesterday, for example.

I remember when turnout in El Paso County used to be some of the worst in the state. Amazing what Beto has been able to do there.

[Gass3268]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Probably, but everything is so scrambled this year you really can't go off past comparisons that much.

[Gass3268]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

Yeah, Northeast Ohio looks to be a bit behind.

[Gass3268]

WI early voting stats updated
Till now total 821300 people have voted in WI

Dane leads with 135 k votes
Followed by
Milwaukee 133 k votes
Waukesha 68 k votes
Brown 42 k votes

Great turnout day in Wisconsin as there were 65,093 new votes returned since yesterday to bring the totals to 821,300. There will probably be over 900,000 returned votes when in-person absentee voting starts on Tuesday. The trio of Milwaukee-Dane-Waukesha all returned pretty substantial numbers of raw votes (10,648-8,269-6,136). Dane County is up to 43.67% of 2016 votes returned. Still possible that Dane County could get to 50% by next Tuesday morning. Today is the first day of Madison having 14 drop boxes across the city.

[Gass3268]

WI early voting stats updated
Till now total 821300 people have voted in WI

Dane leads with 135 k votes
Followed by
Milwaukee 133 k votes
Waukesha 68 k votes
Brown 42 k votes

Great turnout day in Wisconsin as there were 65,093 new votes returned since yesterday to bring the totals to 821,300. There will probably be over 900,000 returned votes when in-person absentee voting starts on Tuesday. The trio of Milwaukee-Dane-Waukesha all returned pretty substantial numbers of raw votes (10,648-8,269-6,136). Dane County is up to 43.67% of 2016 votes returned. Still possible that Dane County could get to 50% by next Tuesday morning. Today is the first day of Madison having 14 drop boxes across the city.

I wonder how much these numbers are going to surge next week when in-person early voting starts. I'll be voting with my family at 8 AM on Monday, I'm sure it's going to be a huge day statewide for voting numbers.

Yeah, its gonna be big. Particularly I think Milwaukee will be big given some of the fears with the mail in minority communities.

[Gass3268]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Do we you have Fort Bend County?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317267452116553728?s=20

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

Well given TargetSmart's history they're up to smth alright, being massively off as per normal for them lol

I don't know their history so you fill me in. In WI's case, Democrats are actually doing worse (42-33) at this point than in 2016 (51-35). It defies logic.

Not sure where Umengus is getting the R+2 number from. Their current numbers have it D+9. That said we really shouldn't be arguing TargetSmart's modeled partisanship. It's really a crapshoot.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin released municipal data. Taking requests if anyone wants me to dig into it a bit. I'll have some of my own things I'm looking at.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee County Municipalities % of 2016 vote (10/16):

54.52%   VILLAGE OF BAYSIDE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
35.06%   VILLAGE OF BROWN DEER - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
49.42%   VILLAGE OF FOX POINT - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
31.60%   VILLAGE OF GREENDALE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
29.18%   VILLAGE OF HALES CORNERS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.38%   VILLAGE OF RIVER HILLS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
51.81%   VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
21.48%   VILLAGE OF WEST MILWAUKEE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
50.82%   VILLAGE OF WHITEFISH BAY - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
26.20%   CITY OF CUDAHY - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
35.90%   CITY OF FRANKLIN - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
47.48%   CITY OF GLENDALE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.09%   CITY OF GREENFIELD - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
27.24%   CITY OF MILWAUKEE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
33.93%   CITY OF OAK CREEK - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.01%   CITY OF ST. FRANCIS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
28.09%   CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
39.50%   CITY OF WAUWATOSA - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
30.64%   CITY OF WEST ALLIS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Before everyone freaks out about the City of Milwaukee, their % is only about 1 point lower than the state %. Not shocking, but the Northeast suburbs are dominating right now.

[Gass3268]

Dane County Towns/Municipalities % of 2016 vote (10/16):

18.22%   TOWN OF ALBION - DANE COUNTY
25.07%   TOWN OF BERRY - DANE COUNTY
34.86%   TOWN OF BLACK EARTH - DANE COUNTY
29.50%   TOWN OF BLOOMING GROVE - DANE COUNTY
23.75%   TOWN OF BLUE MOUNDS - DANE COUNTY
29.36%   TOWN OF BRISTOL - DANE COUNTY
27.10%   TOWN OF BURKE - DANE COUNTY
14.07%   TOWN OF CHRISTIANA - DANE COUNTY
38.64%   TOWN OF COTTAGE GROVE - DANE COUNTY
32.95%   TOWN OF CROSS PLAINS - DANE COUNTY
17.96%   TOWN OF DANE - DANE COUNTY
23.79%   TOWN OF DEERFIELD - DANE COUNTY
26.12%   TOWN OF DUNKIRK - DANE COUNTY
33.43%   TOWN OF DUNN - DANE COUNTY
35.02%   TOWN OF MADISON - DANE COUNTY
24.96%   TOWN OF MAZOMANIE - DANE COUNTY
27.02%   TOWN OF MEDINA - DANE COUNTY
43.43%   TOWN OF MIDDLETON - DANE COUNTY
32.11%   TOWN OF MONTROSE - DANE COUNTY
36.88%   TOWN OF OREGON - DANE COUNTY
30.14%   TOWN OF PERRY - DANE COUNTY
35.06%   TOWN OF PLEASANT SPRINGS - DANE COUNTY
29.02%   TOWN OF PRIMROSE - DANE COUNTY
28.23%   TOWN OF ROXBURY - DANE COUNTY
33.64%   TOWN OF RUTLAND - DANE COUNTY
32.61%   TOWN OF SPRINGDALE - DANE COUNTY
30.92%   TOWN OF SPRINGFIELD - DANE COUNTY
31.18%   TOWN OF SUN PRAIRIE - DANE COUNTY
37.27%   TOWN OF VERMONT - DANE COUNTY
41.36%   TOWN OF VERONA - DANE COUNTY
27.37%   TOWN OF VIENNA - DANE COUNTY
40.92%   TOWN OF WESTPORT - DANE COUNTY
22.00%   TOWN OF YORK - DANE COUNTY
53.51%   VILLAGE OF BELLEVILLE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
29.77%   VILLAGE OF BLACK EARTH - DANE COUNTY
27.41%   VILLAGE OF BLUE MOUNDS - DANE COUNTY
33.59%   VILLAGE OF BROOKLYN - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
52.81%   VILLAGE OF CAMBRIDGE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
45.25%   VILLAGE OF COTTAGE GROVE - DANE COUNTY
36.80%   VILLAGE OF CROSS PLAINS - DANE COUNTY
29.57%   VILLAGE OF DANE - DANE COUNTY
26.98%   VILLAGE OF DEERFIELD - DANE COUNTY
47.46%   VILLAGE OF DEFOREST - DANE COUNTY
36.66%   VILLAGE OF MAPLE BLUFF - DANE COUNTY
27.12%   VILLAGE OF MARSHALL - DANE COUNTY
38.83%   VILLAGE OF MAZOMANIE - DANE COUNTY
47.72%   VILLAGE OF MCFARLAND - DANE COUNTY
39.94%   VILLAGE OF MOUNT HOREB - DANE COUNTY
44.32%   VILLAGE OF OREGON - DANE COUNTY
2.83%     VILLAGE OF ROCKDALE - DANE COUNTY (I have to imagine they are behind in their reporting)
68.26%   VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD HILLS - DANE COUNTY
50.17%   VILLAGE OF WAUNAKEE - DANE COUNTY
46.26%   VILLAGE OF WINDSOR - DANE COUNTY
51.66%   CITY OF FITCHBURG - DANE COUNTY
45.55%   CITY OF MADISON - DANE COUNTY
59.05%   CITY OF MIDDLETON - DANE COUNTY
46.58%   CITY OF MONONA - DANE COUNTY
46.43%   CITY OF STOUGHTON - DANE COUNTY
49.60%   CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE - DANE COUNTY
50.44%   CITY OF VERONA - DANE COUNTY

[Gass3268]

I wonder how much of the Texas increase is attributed to the fact that lots of professionals from the two coasts are moving in, increasing the population almost exclusively with high propensity voters.

Is there any evidence that hispanics and/or other low propensity voters are also turning out? 

If both groups are in large numbers maybe it's the perfect storm to screw Trump and the GOP.

Exit polling suggested Beto won native born Texans.

Turnout in the RGV looks good.

[Gass3268]

Another note on Texas...

In like a week, Texas has jumped to the 2nd highest percent of the 2016 vote at 38.3%.  Only trailing Vermont.  Obviously Texas is a rapidly growing state but still it seems clear that GOP efforts to suppress the vote have failed spectacularly.  

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Texas typically has lower turnout in Presidential cycles; some of the worst, so it's good to see that this cycle, that is likely to change as TX is more competative and has gotten more national attention.

It's not an over exaggeration that a mix of Beto and Trump have accelerated the trajectory of Texas.