Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Both State Representative Allison Russo and Franklin County Auditor Michael Stinziano have filed for OH-15. I like them both, but Stinziano doesn’t live in the district and it is already a challenge for the Democrat to be from Franklin County. As an OH-15 voter, I will be supporting Russo in the primary.

Russo is a very strong candidate...just not for this district  She’s a definite over-performer, but unless it’s for raising name ID, I don’t know why she’s running.  I don’t know why Stinziano is considering running here though.  I like him, but that’d be a slaughter.

Good chance to run to increase name ID in case they want to run for congress in '22 under the new lines. Never know what a new district around Columbus may look like that could be promising for one of them.

I do think it would be hard to crack both Columbus and Cleveland again and keep it sustainable.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Nina was probably the worst person progressives could've chosen for this race anyway. I haven't even liked her for a long time. That said Brown is also garbage.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

It definitely feels like there is a contingent within the Progressive movement who think burning it all down to build on top is more important than achieving any progressive goals presently. Bernie kinda cultivated this faction in the latter days of the 2016 campaign, which brought them to the forefront. However, as noted, the elected progressives mostly have shunned these commentators - so much so that people like Shawn King and Brianna Joy Grey now seem to be on the outside looking in at the Progressive discussion rather than the other way around. And that is a good thing.

Indeed. That's the whole thing in my sig.

We need more Khanna and Porter type progressives, not Nina Turner bomb throwers.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

My house projection: Lean R -> Tossup. This is huge, and while a good portion rides on candidate quality there is no denying that this is not a normal midterm anymore.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The only reason this election happened is because Higgins got bored and left.

to be fair, seeing the whole mess that's been going on in the house I don't blame him.