I honestly think Gary Johnson could do very well. Palin has the rural white, religious vote, so who's left? Fiscally conservative, socially moderate/liberal Republicans (in other words, libertarians). NH + NV, and he's a frontrunner.
I wish you were right, but honestly think you are way oversimplifying the make up of the GOP. If Ron Paul Love-o-lution couldn't break 20 delegates, Gary Johnson ain't getting the nomination.
Paul had many problems that Johnson won't.
1. Paul's campaign organization was terrible, they didn't really make good use of all their money.
2. Paul is not very good looking, nor a charismatic guy. He can come off as even a bit crazy at times.
3. Johnson may benefit in the southwest due to the favorite son effect. He'll probably take Hispanic Republicans as well.
Still, I do let my hope get the better of me.