New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results

[J. J.]

Hillary Clinton just "won" the the New Hampshire Primary.  Note the quotes.

She down played her chances, cried at just the right time.  That is going down in the history with Muskie's tears, Reagan's "I paid for this microphone," Dole's "Stop lying about my record," and Bill Clinton's "They can me the Come Back Kid."

[J. J.]

Hillary Clinton just "won" the the New Hampshire Primary.  Note the quotes.

She down played her chances, cried at just the right time.  That is going down in the history with Muskie's tears, Reagan's "I paid for this microphone," Dole's "Stop lying about my record," and Bill Clinton's "They can me the Come Back Kid."

Along with a little of the Bradley Effect to help her, I suspect.

However, let's see where this one ends up.  But, all in all, I agree with you.

I think the Bradley effect is limited; the problem is polling in NH.  The joke has been that the voters  in NH tend to lie to pollsters.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH

[J. J.]

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

Obama violated J. J.'s Second Rule.

[J. J.]

CLINTON 40% 19,219 0   

OBAMA 36% 17,260 0   

EDWARDS 17% 8,135

That's at 17% in.

[J. J.]

This just doesn't make sense: huge turnout, large number of independents on the Democratic side, every single poll had Obama winning.

Just read about the 1948 election Truman vs Dewey.  Similar situation.

Please explicate your analogy.

Harold Stassen is Obama's campaign manager?

[J. J.]

I am grinning like a Cheshire Cat!

[J. J.]

Clinton did stir up the race with her tears, her attacks on Obama, and her threats of terrorist attacks.

Now we know Clinton is winning.

[J. J.]

Clinton 35%
Obama 32%
Edwards 15%

A few days ago, someone suggested this prediction should go into the comedy goldmine.  I think his post will. 

[J. J.]

CLINTON 39% 26,090 0   

OBAMA 36% 23,556 0   

EDWARDS 17% 10,995

Big surge for such a sort time.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections.

[J. J.]

Clinton played the expectations game and won BIG TIME!!!

[J. J.]

Slight tightening

30.56% in
Clinton 39.46%
Obama 36.01%

32% in

Clinton 40
Obama 36

[J. J.]

I'm predicting Clinton by three.

[J. J.]

Obama developed a double digit gender gap.  The tears worked. 

[J. J.]

No Mo-bama.

[J. J.]

The reactions of Obama supporters is the funniest thing about this thread!

Because Clinton used fake tears to draw women vote, along with lying about taxes and abortion stances to win a primary she shouldnt have, and now we're all lamenting what was do or die for the only chance to stop Hillary Clinton and we're a little unhappy about it?

Obama is a not ready for prime time player.  He should have anticipated. 

[J. J.]

Obamaniacs, some perspective please: we still have the culinary workers endorsement in Nevada. We still have huge black support in South Carolina. We still have as much money as Clinton. We're still gaining on her nationally. A 1% win here is not going to kill us; it's just going to drag out Clinton's demise a little longer.

If he becomes THE "Black" candidate as opposed to a Black candidate, he lose the nomination and Dems go down in flames nationally.

[J. J.]

Obamaniacs, some perspective please: we still have the culinary workers endorsement in Nevada. We still have huge black support in South Carolina. We still have as much money as Clinton. We're still gaining on her nationally. A 1% win here is not going to kill us; it's just going to drag out Clinton's demise a little longer.

I bet all my NJPSE winnings on an Obama victory in NH. This is do or die for me.

Why didn't you wait for a sure thing?

It looked like a sure thing when I bet... I bought Obama at 67%; he was at 98% last night. I went from a genius to a buffoon in a span of 24 hours.

I was the one that said "Buy Clinton."

[J. J.]

Here's another scenario to think about - what happens if there's a tie?

It's a Clinton win.  Clinton has won the the NH Primary today.  She has destroyed the momentum of Obama.  There is no Mo-bama.

[J. J.]

63% in and she's up by three.

[J. J.]

This is about the time for Obama to close the gap,,

I can here Obama saying, "Damn, this isn't how it works in Cook County."

[J. J.]

This is about the time for Obama to close the gap,,

I can here Obama saying, "Damn, this isn't how it works in Cook County."

Obama ran AGAINST the machine. Appearantly the Clinton machine is better oiled than the Daley machine.

And the Cook County machine will not support a Republican in the general.

[J. J.]

Hilary wins!

[J. J.]

JJ, let me congratulate you on this one.

BTW, this race will be a war now.

Thank you.  I could see this coming.

[J. J.]

JJ, let me congratulate you on this one.

BTW, this race will be a war now.

Thank you.  I could see this coming.

What's your ID on NJPSE? I won second place in November.

I actually have never been on that site.  I'm not even sure what it is.

[J. J.]

JJ, let me congratulate you on this one.

BTW, this race will be a war now.

Thank you.  I could see this coming.

No problem.  I didn't think it was possible.  But in NH, anything is possible.

Sam, you're 27 and I'm 45.  I've been paying attention to the NH Primary since 1972, which is unlike some of the "pundits" on TV.