Battleground states

[cp]

I think that map is about right based on where we are now, but I doubt that's how it will play out.

I have nothing but intuition to back this up, but I have a feeling that the electoral maps we'll be playing with (within the realm of reason) in 18 months would blow our minds today. I doubt it would be a dramatic switching of states from red to blue to swing, but perhaps a landslide-type scenario. Or maybe a single non sequitor state that throws everyone for a loop, like a tight race between Giuliani and Clinton in the tristate area.

The reason I think this is that electoral college results have tended to go in two trends over the past 50 years. Either they look basically identical to the previous election, or they look wildly different with one side being crushed (even if it's not a landslide). The exceptions are 1960 and 2000 where it was so close, the maps were basically split half and half.

Why will 2008 not look identical to the previous maps? It's a watershed election. No sitting Pres/VP, wide-open races, internal party politics turned on their head, a divisive war, and just about anything else about the race so far that points to a break with the past.

It's a passing thought, but maybe I'll be vindicated in 20 months or so.