Polish Politics and Elections

[Epaminondas]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Radom PiS got 49% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

[Logical]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

Poznan was where KO did best in 2019, fwiw.

Electoral District 18 (Czestochowa), 100% reporting, change from 2019 in Parenthesis:

Law and Justice: 36.35% (-7.93%) 117,756
Civic Coalition:   29.11% (+6.48%) 94,313
Third Way:          14.72% (-0.87%)  47,698
New Left:            9.41% (+0.73%) 30,497
Confederation:    6.56% (+0.49%)  21,256

Częstochowa is the 28th Constituency and you mixed up TD and NL change from 2019.

[Duke of York]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

No, they almost certainly are. "The coalition" in this context is the list that Tusk is leading, not the whole broad opposition front with the agrarian and leftist lists.

[Logical]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Czestochowa PiS got 37% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

Not true. They won 3 out of 7 seats in Czestochowa which is 43%.

[Duke of York]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

No, they almost certainly are. "The coalition" in this context is the list that Tusk is leading, not the whole broad opposition front with the agrarian and leftist lists.

Therefore the 3 party coalition Tusk is leading will be able to form a government? Im confused.

[M0096]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Czestochowa PiS got 37% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

In Rzeszów in 2015 parliamentary election PiS received 56,1% of votes, but 80% of seats.
I also think that the smallest consituencies for Sejm should be merged to receive more proportional share of seats compared to votes cast.
I think that (Upper) Silesia should be divided into 3 or 4, but not 6 constituencies.

[Epaminondas]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Czestochowa PiS got 37% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

Not true. They won 3 out of 7 seats in Czestochowa which is 43%.

Sorry I meant Radom, in which 49% of the ballots delivered 67% of the seats to PiS.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 2 (Wałbrzych) fully reported
KO - 37.17% (+5.08 ) 120,118
PiS - 33.34% (-7.20) 107,797
Third Way - 12.13% (+4.88 ) 39,215
Left - 7.98% (-4.37) 25,806
Konfederacja - 6.02% (+0.60) 19,478

Seats
KO - 4 (+1)
PiS - 3 (-1)
Third Way - 1 (+1)
Left - 0 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/2

[M0096]

Who actually votes for TD? I understand agrarianism in the post-communist 1990s context, but in most places these sorts of parties went away and their supporters went on to vote for what we would think of as "populists". Why did Polish agrarianism both survive and end up as part of the relatively 'liberal' coalition?

PSL is very similar to nordic Centre Parties. The electorate of that party is mostly "rural establishment" - large-scale farmers, local official, firefighters, etc. That party is major opposition to PiS in very rural areas, where any other opposition party not compete. PSL received much better results in local elections that in parliamentary ones and almost not exist in presidential elections. Poland 2050 is liberal alternative for KO, focus on environmentalism and issues important for younger voters. Both parts of TD gained also some suburban centre-right voters abandoned by KO.

[rob in cal]

Will the new coalition of parties be ideologically coherent enough to govern effectively?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will the new coalition of parties be ideologically coherent enough to govern effectively?

Nobody knows for sure, but they should be able to hammer out a broad liberalism in a way that, say, the last Israeli government could not.

[Oryxslayer]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

No, they almost certainly are. "The coalition" in this context is the list that Tusk is leading, not the whole broad opposition front with the agrarian and leftist lists.

Therefore the 3 party coalition Tusk is leading will be able to form a government? Im confused.

Every one of the 5(or 6) "lists" that will be winning seats is a banket organization for many smaller parties, but usually with one big name in control of the minors. TD has PSL, KO has PO, etc. So while we can say there are many more than three parties, the three lists of the Liberal opposition have agreed to work in a united government.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 5 (Toruń) fully reported
PiS - 34.06% (-6.32) 183,131
KO - 29.52% (+3.10) 158,719
Third Way - 15.68% (+4.80) 84,308
Left - 11.25% (-3.58) 60,473
Konfederacja - 6.37% (+0.04) 34,232

Seats
PiS - 5 (-1)
KO - 4
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/5

[Logical]

Consituency no. 27 (Bielsko-Biała I) fully reported
PiS - 36.71% (-10.05) 163,506
KO - 28.67% (+1.47) 127,677
Third Way - 14.55% (+7.42) 64,778
Konfederacja - 7.84% (+0.42) 34,909
Left - 7.77% (-3.71) 34,601


Seats
PiS - 4 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 1 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
Left - 0 (-1)

Lewica loses the final seat to KWN by 308 votes.


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/27

[M0096]

Constituency no. 30 (Rybnik) fully reported: (...)

I'm shocked that both Senate seats (constituencies 72 & 73) within that constituency went to opposition.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 30 (Bielsko-Biała II) fully reported
PiS - 38.06% (-10.22) 145,230
KO - 29.98% (+2.27) 114,404
Third Way - 12.45% (+6.81) 47,525
Konfederacja - 8.00% (+0.83) 30,527
Left - 6.84% (-2.84) 26,117


Seats
PiS - 4 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 1 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
Left - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/30

[Gass3268]

US Results by State:

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

I have to imagine that on these numbers, if these trends continue, the exit polls will turn out to be pretty accurate?

More or less

You can see the Confederacy overperformance as well

I was right to include the Disco Stu caveat because the counting bias is holding good, but is uneven; between 60% and 75% PiS fell and PO rose by 0.7% apiece, which isn't that far off from the 1.0% and 0.9% between 45% and 60%, but, as has been pointed out, that was disproportionately within the last few vote dumps. It does feel like we'll be looking at a pretty accurate exit poll when all is said and done.

Another 15% in. At 90% PiS has fallen and PO risen another 0.6% from the 75% benchmark. Ayyy!

[Epaminondas]

PiS seem to be taking a hiding in the Senate. I count 7 flips to Lewica/KO already (seats 1,2,3,72,73,85,87), barring changes in the last few percents.

Perhaps I'm doing it wrong? It seems too good to be true.

[Oryxslayer]

If anyone cares, i went through the Senate seats to see who is presently leading. The opposition alliance, which in the FPTP Senate is officially aligned to prevent vote loss, is leading in a whopping 62 or 63 of 100 seats right now. Some surprises include:

#13 Toruń III, aka the Southeast corner of the Voivodeship. Left leading by a lot in a Duda-won seat, clear spoiler effect from Confederation.

#18 Chełm II, previously a uber-safe PiS seat flipping to an Independent by 3%. There is no Opposition candidate, so the independent is anti-PiS right? If I am wrong, the total is 62, if right, 63.

#38 Płock I: currently a 60 vote PiS lead over Third Way.

#51 Opole I: 6% lead for PO in a seat lost by 10% for the Alliance's Left candidate left time. Suprising since this seat is seemingly captures all the PiS areas in Opole, to the point of a Duda win in 2020.

#60 Białystok II: The city and Belarus border. Giving a huge 12% margin to Third Way. Previously won by 7% for PiS.

[Gass3268]

US Results by State:

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

[Epaminondas]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

[MaxQue]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

Same in Canada, where the strongest PiS polling places are the Mississauga ones (which are swing suburbs of Toronto). At the same time, the southern Alberta (that's the most conservative place in the country) polling place voted for KO.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

Lots of Biden-Bolsonaro and Biden-Fujimori voters in parts of this great land.