OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about the R primary

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

This could be absolutely catastrophic. I actually wonder if Tim Ryan would be better. He’s at least authentic and not a rich trust fund baby letting cancel culture run amuck in baseball. And moderate Dems might govern better than lying snake Lincoln project types

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

This could be absolutely catastrophic. I actually wonder if Tim Ryan would be better. He’s at least authentic and not a rich trust fund baby letting cancel culture run amuck in baseball. And moderate Dems might govern better than lying snake Lincoln project types

I would prefer Ryan over Dolan, Timken or Gibbons. At least Ryan is protectionist and can be replaced by a nationalist Republican in 6 years.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

... just like Rob Portman? Hell, both DeWine and Kasich issued executive orders protecting state employees from anti-LGBT discrimination in the workplace.

You people are insane.

[lfromnj]

FYI Dolan would probably tone down the moderation in the senate, his current district is some gerrymandered monstrosity out of Cuyahoga taking the western rich suburbs/eastern rich suburbs and the R base in the south. It's a Romney Clinton Biden +8 district.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

... just like Rob Portman? Hell, both DeWine and Kasich issued executive orders protecting state employees from anti-LGBT discrimination in the workplace.

You people are insane.

Did I even suggest I oppose gay marriage.. I'm just making a statement overall, that he's socially liberal in comparison to the republican norm.

[Pollster]

Dolan's strategy here was incredibly unorthodox but clearly paid off - he waited for all the other candidates to saturate the electorate with their messaging to the point that their spending had diminishing returns (basically every primary voter already knew who they were/their branding and every dollar they spent started to have less impact on the race), and launched his major paid communications at that exact moment to be the main driver of the conversation at the point of highest voter engagement.

Best recent comparison I can think of is Andrew Gillum's 2018 primary win.

I personally would only advise a candidate to do this under very unique circumstances - it's risky for obvious reasons, especially if you don't have access to personal wealth and need to keep donors reassured that you're competitive. Fortunately for Dolan, he is personally wealthy, not reliant on donors, and is running in a race that largely meets those unique circumstances (multiple well-funded candidates splitting the Trump-aligned vote, pre-ordained establishment choice failing to launch, no conventionally "strong" or "rising star" candidate in the field, etc). Entirely possible though that he's laying out a blueprint for anti-Trump Republicans in primaries across the country.

[wbrocks67]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

[kwabbit]

What's the county map looking like here?  Mandel, Vance, and Dolan may all win counties.

I think Dolan takes Cuyahoga, Delaware, Franklin, and maybe Hamilton counties. Mandel might take traditionally conservative Western Ohio. Vance takes the rest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Franken is only 3 pts behind Grassley then Ryan isn't that far behind Rs in OH but they need to poll this race after the primaries coming up including MD Gov I hope they start polling GE

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

It’s Ryan’s only chance of winning.  There would be high potential for a third party MAGA candidate and Trump certainly wouldn’t endorse Dolan.  Ryan is an A-list recruit running an excellent campaign who could definitely pull off a narrow victory in such a scenario, even in a Republican wave election.

[xavier110]

Pragmatically speaking, we need as many non-sociopathic/Trump Republicans in Congress as possible to maintain a line of defense for 2024. If Dolan doesn’t follow Trump’s lead on overturning election results, I am all aboard. We know Vance and Mandel would do whatever he wants.

I’d advise any Ds or Is to vote for him (and DeWine), especially if there are few competitive D primary races in your local area. That’s why I’ll be requesting an R ballot here in AZ, while likely voting straight D in November.

[wbrocks67]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

It’s Ryan’s only chance of winning.  There would be high potential for a third party MAGA candidate and Trump certainly wouldn’t endorse Dolan.  Ryan is an A-list recruit running an excellent campaign who could definitely pull off a narrow victory in such a scenario, even in a Republican wave election.

Really? I considered Mandel to be the worst GE candidate of the 3 of them? If Dolan loses some MAGA votes in November, couldn't he offset that by grabbing some right leaning 'moderates'?

Mandel almost seems too far right & nutbaggy even for Ohio at this point. But then again I also thought that Vance was horrific as well for a GE, and people seem to think he'll do just fine?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

It’s Ryan’s only chance of winning.  There would be high potential for a third party MAGA candidate and Trump certainly wouldn’t endorse Dolan.  Ryan is an A-list recruit running an excellent campaign who could definitely pull off a narrow victory in such a scenario, even in a Republican wave election.

Really? I considered Mandel to be the worst GE candidate of the 3 of them? If Dolan loses some MAGA votes in November, couldn't he offset that by grabbing some right leaning 'moderates'?

Mandel almost seems too far right & nutbaggy even for Ohio at this point. But then again I also thought that Vance was horrific as well for a GE, and people seem to think he'll do just fine?

Mandel and Vance are awful candidates, but Ohio is currently so Republican and the environment is so terrible for the Democrats that it doesn’t matter.  Dolan would cause a three way race which Ryan could definitely win.

[Roll Roons]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

[ꙮ]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The worry with Dolan is that his winning the primary might trigger an independent run by someone more conservative. That's the only way this race ends up competitive.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The worry with Dolan is that his winning the primary might trigger an independent run by someone more conservative. That's the only way this race ends up competitive.

Yeah, a Susan Collins Republican will not go down well in Ohio even if they win the primary. Someone like Blystone would probably jump in as an independent and siphon off ~10% of the vote, making the general election competitive.

[2016]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The worry with Dolan is that his winning the primary might trigger an independent run by someone more conservative. That's the only way this race ends up competitive.

Yes that could possibly happen but I don't think it will.

I am counting on Governor DeWine pulling Dolan over the Finish Line in November if Dolan is the Nominee. DeWine will likely win in a landslide in November maybe by a similar margin Kasich won in 2014 against Fitzgerald.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

Dolan is basically a moderate democrat on social issues.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

Dolan is basically a moderate democrat on social issues.

Yeah. I'd say the closest Senator Dolan would be to if elected is Shelley Moore Capito, funnily enough another socially liberal Republican in a hardcore conservative state.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I would easily take Senator Dolan if it means the end of JD Vance and Josh Mandel's political careers.

I'm not sure Vance's career would be over. He's only 37 and this is his first run.
Mandel's would be 100% done though. It would mean he lost 3 times statewide, no one is going to support a perennial candidate.