Libertarian Presidential nomination (5/21-5/24)

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Logging on! Vermin Supreme's march towards the Oval Office continues today.

Also oh my god I get that this had to be rushed together but the fact that America's third-largest political party is nominating its candidate from an iMac screen recording of a google doc is... not a sign of professionalism. Anyways I'm gonna keep it on all day in the background.

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I honestly think it's gonna be Jorgensen then Gray then Hornberger then Supreme in that order. All of my hopes are invested in it being Supreme since he unironically would probably do better than any of the ideologues up there at the moment but I don't think there's much of a chance.

I don't agree with Sharpe's politics however he ran a fine campaign for NY governor 2 years ago has a firm commitment to his beliefs and would be a great vice presidential nominee.

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This is pure orderly chaos. Basically every delegate has tried to suspend the rules while a delegate motioned to add the chair of the LP who is RUNNING THE PROCESS to the nomination list. So much confusion over if he can even preside over this vote. They motioned if the audience is allowed to boo speakers over zoom. Tried to add "Flaming Meteor" to the list. 1 hour later and no new names ended up being added. My head hurts.

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It's looking like if Kokesh loses, his campaign will be endorsing Vermin.

Vermin might have a chance here...

Yeah I was just about to say that his delegates seem pretty in favour of Supreme.

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Kokesh endorses Sharpe for VP, stiffing McAfee.

P.S. Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto

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So surreal watching these speeches from people's bedroom. It makes me wonder what the Dem process will be. Cannot imagine it being a literal zoom call. Prerecorded? I hope not.

We may end up with two Jo(e)s on the ballot in November.

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If you're not watching, you missed Atlas Forum alum Darryl Perry.

Atlas alum! Well I learn something new here every day. No licenses for making toast in my own damn toaster.

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I ended up being unsure if Mikado was joking that DARRYL PERRY used to post here and after some searching WOAH WELL HE WAS QUITE A COLORFUL PERSON I SEE. I feel like my new knowledge of this is some sort of Atlas rite of passage.

Kokesh, Monds, or Supreme; or I'm voting for Trump.

Anyone else have any favorites?

Supreme is my big favorite. Monds is a pretty good orator just from what I heard today. I want Sharpe as VP. Even if somehow magically there was a Supreme/Sharpe ticket (that'd be some clashing philosophy) I probably would not support it.

Hornberger and Jorgensen just seem boring from all I've heard. I think the only way third parties can do well (well being 5%) is having really good speakers. Think Nader. Not random party swappers. Vermin's eccentricity would unironically get a lot of media attention.

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Hornberger endorses Spike Cohen for VP.

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JOHNSON ENDORSES GRAY

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Jorgensen surging on PredictIt, 77 cents yes. Sharpe leading for veep at 61 cents. Kinda stupid since they have Gray at 3 cents for prez but hey, the PredictIt brainiacs are above me.

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https://twitter.com/DanForTexas/status/1264261012594864135

Imagine the fate of your presidential run being dependant on a twitter poll. I voted so you don't have to, 85/15 towards him dropping out and running for Gov.

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How do you guys see this going?

Hornberger
Jorgensen
Supreme
Gray
Monds
Kokesh eliminated

Hornberger
Jorgensen
Supreme (Kokesh delegates)
Gray
Monds eliminated

Jorgensen (Monds delegates)
Hornberger
Supreme (Kokesh delegates)
Gray eliminated

Hornberger (Gray delegates)
Jorgensen (Monds delegates)
Supreme (Kokesh delegates)

If Hornberger doesn't have the majority by then, Supreme endorses Jorgensen for the LP's first-ever female nominee.

I hesitate to predict ballot order but I think Jorgensen wins on round 3 or 4. I don't see Hornberger consolidating many delegates from others (or Supreme sadly besides Kokesh) and I think Gray will endorse Jorgensen. I will probably be proven wrong in 15 minutes.

Expecting Jorgensen/Sharpe or Jorgensen/Cohen

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First ballot totals before we move on

Candidate	First Ballot	Percentage
Jacob Hornberger	218	24.8%
Jo Jorgensen	193	21.96%
Vermin Supreme	103	11.72%
John Monds	95	10.81%
James Gray	89	10.13%
Adam Kokesh	58	6.6%
Justin Amash	27	3.07%
Arvin Vohra	27	3.07%
Dan Behrman	18	2.05%
Sam Robb	14	1.59%
Kim Ruff	11	1.25%
Sorinne Ardeleneau	9	1.02%
Spike Cohen	7	0.8%
Nicholas Sarwark	6	0.68%
Larry Sharpe	4	0.46%

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Jorgensen's speech was not good. I can see myself in another self-hating Dane but when Hornberger of all people is more concise and you're talking about how your family didn't flee Soviet oppression rather... social democracy is a bit of an odd look. AK-47 line was funny tho.

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Gray has sunk to 5th in PredictIt. Below Monds. If his campaign is known for anything it'll probably be for getting Sharpe to consider being on the slate.

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https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1264305615309963264

The moment where ironic support becomes genuine support is already much past us.

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some states are dumping their votes on twitter while we wait

NEW YORK:
https://twitter.com/KevinWilsonROC/status/1264308151022686215


TEXAS:
https://twitter.com/LPTexas/status/1264301643958554626

gray surge? this is more regionalized than I expected. expect some unique results.

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WASHINGTON:
https://twitter.com/Anthonywelti/status/1264301250104852480

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hearing rumors california is coming hard for hornberger but not seeing numbers to confirm

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NY coming in hard for Gray is no shock. state lp loves sharpe.

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My count (NY, TX, WA)

Hornberger: 40
Monds: 33
Gray: 27
Supreme: 26
Jorgensen: 24
Kokesh: 3
NOTA: 1

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Tried making a spreadsheet of it all but lost track rather quick.

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Jorgensen/Armstrong maybe?

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